How did they get here from there? Detecting changes of direction in terrestrial ranging

Efficient exploitation of large-scale space is crucial to many species of animal, but the difficulties of studying how animals decide on travel routes in natural environments have hampered scientific understanding of environmental cognition. Field experiments allow researchers to define travel goals for their subjects, but practical difficulties restrict large-scale studies. In contrast, data on natural travel patterns are abundant and easy to record, but hard to interpret without circularity and subjectivity when making inferences about when and why an animal began heading to a particular location. We present a method of determining objectively the point at which an animal’s travel path becomes directed at a location, for instance a distant feeding site, based on the statistical characteristics of its route. We evaluate this method and illustrate how it can be tailored to particular problems, using data that is (a) synthetic; (b) from baboons, where travel is from a single sleeping site in an overlapping home range, and (c) from chimpanzees, where sleeping sites are unlimited within a large territory. We suggest that this ‘change- point test’ might usefully become a routine first step in interpreting the decision- making behind animal travel under natural conditions

Predictive use of the Maximum Entropy Production principle for Past and Present Climates

In this paper, we show how the MEP hypothesis may be used to build simple climate models without representing explicitly the energy transport by the atmosphere. The purpose is twofold. First, we assess the performance of the MEP hypothesis by comparing a simple model with minimal input data to a complex, state-of-the-art General Circulation Model. Next, we show how to improve the realism of MEP climate models by including climate feedbacks, focusing on the case of the water-vapour feedback. We also discuss the dependence of the entropy production rate and predicted surface temperature on the resolution of the model

Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tBACKGROUND: With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. METHODS: We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. FINDINGS: Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). INTERPRETATION: This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. FUNDING: European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.DENFREE projectEUPORIAS projectSPECS projectEuropean Commission's Seventh Framework Research ProgrammeConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeir

Ontology mapping for semantically enabled applications

In this review, we provide a summary of recent progress in ontology mapping (OM) at a crucial time when biomedical research is under a deluge of an increasing amount and variety of data. This is particularly important for realising the full potential of semantically enabled or enriched applications and for meaningful insights, such as drug discovery, using machine-learning technologies. We discuss challenges and solutions for better ontology mappings, as well as how to select ontologies before their application. In addition, we describe tools and algorithms for ontology mapping, including evaluation of tool capability and quality of mappings. Finally, we outline the requirements for an ontology mapping service (OMS) and the progress being made towards implementation of such sustainable services

The Sigma 13 (10-14) twin in alpha-Al2O3: A model for a general grain boundary

The atomistic structure and energetics of the Sigma 13 (10-14)[1-210] symmetrical tilt grain boundary in alpha-Al2O3 are studied by first-principles calculations based on the local-density-functional theory with a mixed-basis pseudopotential method. Three configurations, stable with respect to intergranular cleavage, are identified: one Al-terminated glide-mirror twin boundary, and two O-terminated twin boundaries, with glide-mirror and two-fold screw-rotation symmetries, respectively. Their relative energetics as a function of axial grain separation are described, and the local electronic structure and bonding are analysed. The Al-terminated variant is predicted to be the most stable one, confirming previous empirical calculations, but in contrast with high-resolution transmission electron microscopy observations on high-purity diffusion-bonded bicrystals, which resulted in an O-terminated structure. An explanation of this discrepancy is proposed, based on the different relative energetics of the internal interfaces with respect to the free surfaces

Social Capital and Housing Tenure in an Adelaide Neighbourhood

Author version made available in accordance with publisher copyright policy.In this paper we compare and contrast elements of social capital across different housing tenures in an Adelaide neighbourhood. Using the results of 530 self-completion questionnaires and in-depth qualitative interviews with 16 people we assess perceptions of conflict across housing tenures and between socioeconomic groups, feelings of acceptance and belonging in the local neighbourhood, and levels of involvement in local formal and informal networks. While only a small number of questionnaire respondents reported negative views of socioeconomic diversity in the area a common theme emerging in the qualitative data indicated that housing tenure was relevant to some of these negative perceptions. Respondents from across different tenure types also reported differences in feelings of acceptance in the neighbourhood, and involvement in formal and informal networks. The study findings suggest that housing tenure is relevant to the development of neighbourhood-based social capital, and that this factor needs to be considered by social planners, housing policy makers and others involved in implementing social mix policies. In addition, the findings indicate the need to consider the community housing and public housing tenures in their own right, given the different models of housing provision, rather than collectively under the common banner of social housing as most research studies do. It is recommended that the full diversity of housing tenure is considered in any future analysis

Rank-based model selection for multiple ions quantum tomography

The statistical analysis of measurement data has become a key component of many quantum engineering experiments. As standard full state tomography becomes unfeasible for large dimensional quantum systems, one needs to exploit prior information and the "sparsity" properties of the experimental state in order to reduce the dimensionality of the estimation problem. In this paper we propose model selection as a general principle for finding the simplest, or most parsimonious explanation of the data, by fitting different models and choosing the estimator with the best trade-off between likelihood fit and model complexity. We apply two well established model selection methods -- the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) -- to models consising of states of fixed rank and datasets such as are currently produced in multiple ions experiments. We test the performance of AIC and BIC on randomly chosen low rank states of 4 ions, and study the dependence of the selected rank with the number of measurement repetitions for one ion states. We then apply the methods to real data from a 4 ions experiment aimed at creating a Smolin state of rank 4. The two methods indicate that the optimal model for describing the data lies between ranks 6 and 9, and the Pearson $\chi^{2}$ test is applied to validate this conclusion. Additionally we find that the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimator for pure states is close to that of the optimal over all possible measurements.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures, 3 table

The rolling problem: overview and challenges

In the present paper we give a historical account -ranging from classical to modern results- of the problem of rolling two Riemannian manifolds one on the other, with the restrictions that they cannot instantaneously slip or spin one with respect to the other. On the way we show how this problem has profited from the development of intrinsic Riemannian geometry, from geometric control theory and sub-Riemannian geometry. We also mention how other areas -such as robotics and interpolation theory- have employed the rolling model.Comment: 20 page