Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts

In recent years several methodologies have been developed to combine and interpret ensembles of climate models with the aim of quantifying uncertainties in climate projections. Constrained climate model forecasts have been generated by combining various choices of metrics used to weight individual ensemble members, with diverse approaches to sampling the ensemble. The forecasts obtained are often significantly different, even when based on the same model output. Therefore, a climate model forecast classification system can serve two roles: to provide a way for forecast producers to self-classify their forecasts; and to provide information on the methodological assumptions underlying the forecast generation and its uncertainty when forecasts are used for impacts studies. In this review we propose a possible classification system based on choices of metrics and sampling strategies. We illustrate the impact of some of the possible choices in the uncertainty quantification of large scale projections of temperature and precipitation changes, and briefly discuss possible connections between climate forecast uncertainty quantification and decision making approaches in the climate change context

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

ISSN:1752-0908ISSN:1752-089

Energy transition changing land use - estimating large-scale PV and Power-to-X potential of present peat production areas

Due to EU Climate policies the use of peat as an energy source is winding down. In Finland alone there was approximately 900 km2 of active peat production area in 2021 and it has been proposed that these large and otherwise now unused areas, with often existing electricity distribution infrastructure, could be suitable for housing large scale solar photovoltaic (PV) installations. In this paper a geo-spatial analysis of the solar PV potential of the peat production areas in Finland with relation to existing power delivery infrastructure is studied by using openly available data. The Power-to-X potential of the PV generation is also estimated in relation to P2X related infrastructure. The main results of this study show that the peat production areas have significant potential for PV energy generation and they are largely located nearby power grid infrastructure. However if a large portion of the potential was utilized capacity problems in existing networks would likely occur. This could be alleviated with P2X. It was shown that peat production areas are also located close to P2X transport and end use infrastructure. P2X could be used for the needs of the transportation sector, heavy industries or transferred via existing gas pipelines.acceptedVersionPeer reviewe