Using Megha‐Tropiques satellite data to constrain humidity in regional convective simulations: A northern Australian test case

International audienceConvective initiation and growth is sensitive to atmospheric conditions, especially humidity, in ways that need to be understood and quantified. It is not clear however how well current observations and modeling systems can serve to test this understanding. We simulate multiple cases of convergent cloud lines observed during January 2016 over northeastern Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.7.1), initialized by and nudged to reanalysis data. Overall, WRF appears to skilfully simulate the convergence lines. However, the associated convective clouds as seen by satellite were not properly captured by the model. The model humidity was tested against the current version (V3‐00) of the Megha‐Tropiques satellite, which although up to 30% too moist in the lowest retrieved layer over the dry continental interior compared to radiosondes, is usually accurate to within ±10% near the cloud lines. Unperturbed WRF simulations were found to be 10–20% too dry in this region. Compensating for this humidity bias via the model initialization produced more realistic simulations of clouds and convection, and this had a comparable or larger impact than changing model physics. This result highlights the importance of observations of water vapor that are accurate and have good spatial coverage, especially in the lower troposphere, for properly constraining simulations of convective environments and for model evaluation of moist processes

The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change

The Paris Agreement limits global average temperature rise to 2 °C and commits to pursuing efforts in limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This will require rapid reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases and the eventual decarbonisation of the global economy. Wind energy is an established technology to help achieve emissions reductions, with a cumulative global installed capacity of ~486 GW (2016). Focusing on Australia, we assess the future economic viability of wind energy using a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution regional climate simulations forced by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) output. We examine both near future (around 2030) and far future (around 2070) changes. Extractable wind power changes vary across the continent, though the most spatially coherent change is a small but significant decrease across southern regions. The cost of future wind energy generation, measured via the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE), increases negligibly in the future in regions with significant existing installed capacity. Technological developments in wind energy generation more than compensate for projected small reductions in wind, decreasing the LCOE by around 30%. These developments ensure viability for existing wind farms, and enhance the economic viability of proposed wind farms in Western Australian and Tasmania. Wind energy is therefore a resilient source of electricity over most of Australia and technological innovation entering the market will open new regions for energy production in the future