Interpreting intraplate tectonics for seismic hazard : a UK historical perspective

It is notoriously difficult to construct seismic source models for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in intraplate areas on the basis of geological information, and many practitioners have given up the task in favour of purely seismicity-based models. This risks losing potentially valuable information in regions where the earthquake catalogue is short compared to the seismic cycle. It is interesting to survey how attitudes to this issue have evolved over the past 30 years. This paper takes the UK as an example, and traces the evolution of seismic source models through generations of hazard studies. It is found that in the UK, while the earliest studies did not consider regional tectonics in any way, there has been a gradual evolution towards more tectonically based models. Experience in other countries, of course, may differ

The politicisation of evaluation: constructing and contesting EU policy performance

Although systematic policy evaluation has been conducted for decades and has been growing strongly within the European Union (EU) institutions and in the member states, it remains largely underexplored in political science literatures. Extant work in political science and public policy typically focuses on elements such as agenda setting, policy shaping, decision making, or implementation rather than evaluation. Although individual pieces of research on evaluation in the EU have started to emerge, most often regarding policy “effectiveness” (one criterion among many in evaluation), a more structured approach is currently missing. This special issue aims to address this gap in political science by focusing on four key focal points: evaluation institutions (including rules and cultures), evaluation actors and interests (including competencies, power, roles and tasks), evaluation design (including research methods and theories, and their impact on policy design and legislation), and finally, evaluation purpose and use (including the relationships between discourse and scientific evidence, political attitudes and strategic use). The special issue considers how each of these elements contributes to an evolving governance system in the EU, where evaluation is playing an increasingly important role in decision making

Modelling & characterization of a compliant tethered microgripper for microsurgical applications

The development of microscale surgical tools could pave the way for truly minimally invasive microsurgical procedures. This work demonstrates the application of direct laser writing (DLW) using two-photon polymerization (TPP), a rapid prototyping microfabrication technique, to create a tethered, passively actuated three-dimensional gripper with potential applications in microbiopsy. A microgripper design was devised, modelled and optimized. The gripper was then fabricated and characterized for validation of the theoretical model. The results demonstrate that modelling the behavior of compliant microtools provides a useful approximation for the observed trends and, thus, can be utilized in the design of TPP tools. Future work on the incorporation of viscoelastic material into the model will further improve agreement between the predicted and experimental performance

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Evolutionary connectionism: algorithmic principles underlying the evolution of biological organisation in evo-devo, evo-eco and evolutionary transitions

The mechanisms of variation, selection and inheritance, on which evolution by natural selection depends, are not fixed over evolutionary time. Current evolutionary biology is increasingly focussed on understanding how the evolution of developmental organisations modifies the distribution of phenotypic variation, the evolution of ecological relationships modifies the selective environment, and the evolution of reproductive relationships modifies the heritability of the evolutionary unit. The major transitions in evolution, in particular, involve radical changes in developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations that instantiate variation, selection and inheritance at a higher level of biological organisation. However, current evolutionary theory is poorly equipped to describe how these organisations change over evolutionary time and especially how that results in adaptive complexes at successive scales of organisation (the key problem is that evolution is self-referential, i.e. the products of evolution change the parameters of the evolutionary process). Here we first reinterpret the central open questions in these domains from a perspective that emphasises the common underlying themes. We then synthesise the findings from a developing body of work that is building a new theoretical approach to these questions by converting well-understood theory and results from models of cognitive learning. Specifically, connectionist models of memory and learning demonstrate how simple incremental mechanisms, adjusting the relationships between individually-simple components, can produce organisations that exhibit complex system-level behaviours and improve the adaptive capabilities of the system. We use the term “evolutionary connectionism” to recognise that, by functionally equivalent processes, natural selection acting on the relationships within and between evolutionary entities can result in organisations that produce complex system-level behaviours in evolutionary systems and modify the adaptive capabilities of natural selection over time. We review the evidence supporting the functional equivalences between the domains of learning and of evolution, and discuss the potential for this to resolve conceptual problems in our understanding of the evolution of developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations and, in particular, the major evolutionary transitions

Genome-wide analyses for personality traits identify six genomic loci and show correlations with psychiatric disorders

Personality is influenced by genetic and environmental factors1 and associated with mental health. However, the underlying genetic determinants are largely unknown. We identified six genetic loci, including five novel loci2,3, significantly associated with personality traits in a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (N = 123,132–260,861). Of these genomewide significant loci, extraversion was associated with variants in WSCD2 and near PCDH15, and neuroticism with variants on chromosome 8p23.1 and in L3MBTL2. We performed a principal component analysis to extract major dimensions underlying genetic variations among five personality traits and six psychiatric disorders (N = 5,422–18,759). The first genetic dimension separated personality traits and psychiatric disorders, except that neuroticism and openness to experience were clustered with the disorders. High genetic correlations were found between extraversion and attention-deficit– hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and between openness and schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The second genetic dimension was closely aligned with extraversion–introversion and grouped neuroticism with internalizing psychopathology (e.g., depression or anxiety)

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

A randomised controlled trial of the effects of albendazole in pregnancy on maternal responses to mycobacterial antigens and infant responses to bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunisation [ISRCTN32849447]

Background: Maternal schistosomiasis and filariasis have been shown to influence infant responses to neonatal bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunisation but the effects of maternal hookworm, and of de-worming in pregnancy, are unknown. Methods: In Entebbe, Uganda, we conducted a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of a single dose of 400 mg of albendazole in the second trimester of pregnancy. Neonates received BCG. Interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) and interleukin (IL)-5 responses to a mycobacterial antigen (crude culture filtrate proteins (CFP) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis) were measured in a whole blood assay. We analysed results for binary variables using χ2 tests and logistic regression. We analysed continuous variables using Wilcoxon's tests. Results: Maternal hookworm was associated with reduced maternal IFN-γ responses to CFP (adjusted odds ratio for IFN-γ > median response: 0.14 (95% confidence interval 0.02–0.83, p = 0.021). Conversely, maternal hookworm was associated with subsequent increased IFN-γ responses in their one-year-old infants (adjusted OR 17.65 (1.20–258.66; p = 0.013)). Maternal albendazole tended to reduce these effects. Conclusion: Untreated hookworm infection in pregnancy was associated with reduced maternal IFN-γ responses to mycobacterial antigens, but increased responses in their infants one year after BCG immunisation. The mechanisms of these effects, and their implications for protective immunity remain, to be determined. </p

Whole genome sequencing to investigate the emergence of clonal complex 23 Neisseria meningitidis serogroup Y disease in the United States

In the United States, serogroup Y, ST-23 clonal complex Neisseria meningitidis was responsible for an increase in meningococcal disease incidence during the 1990s. This increase was accompanied by antigenic shift of three outer membrane proteins, with a decrease in the population that predominated in the early 1990s as a different population emerged later in that decade. To understand factors that may have been responsible for the emergence of serogroup Y disease, we used whole genome pyrosequencing to investigate genetic differences between isolates from early and late N. meningitidis populations, obtained from meningococcal disease cases in Maryland in the 1990s. The genomes of isolates from the early and late populations were highly similar, with 1231 of 1776 shared genes exhibiting 100% amino acid identity and an average πN = 0.0033 and average πS = 0.0216. However, differences were found in predicted proteins that affect pilin structure and antigen profile and in predicted proteins involved in iron acquisition and uptake. The observed changes are consistent with acquisition of new alleles through horizontal gene transfer. Changes in antigen profile due to the genetic differences found in this study likely allowed the late population to emerge due to escape from population immunity. These findings may predict which antigenic factors are important in the cyclic epidemiology of meningococcal disease

A Conceptual Framework for Healthy Eating Behavior in Ecuadorian Adolescents: A Qualitative Study

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify factors influencing eating behavior of Ecuadorian adolescents - from the perspective of parents, school staff and adolescents - to develop a conceptual framework for adolescents’ eating behavior. Study design: Twenty focus groups (N = 144 participants) were conducted separately with adolescents aged 11–15 y (n (focus groups) = 12, N (participants) = 80), parents (n = 4, N = 32) and school staff (n = 4, N = 32) in rural and urban Ecuador. A semi-structured questioning route was developed based on the ‘Attitude, Social influences and Self-efficacy’ model and the socio-ecological model to assess the relevance of behavioral and environmental factors in low- and middle-income countries. Two researchers independently analyzed verbatim transcripts for emerging themes, using deductive thematic content analysis. Data were analyzed using NVivo 8. Results: All groups recognized the importance of eating healthily and key individual factors in Ecuadorian adolescents’ food choices were: financial autonomy, food safety perceptions, lack of self-control, habit strength, taste preferences and perceived peer norms. Environmental factors included the poor nutritional quality of food and its easy access at school. In their home and family environment, time and convenience completed the picture as barriers to eating healthily. Participants acknowledged the impact of the changing socio-cultural environment on adolescents’ eating patterns. Availability of healthy food at home and financial constraints differed between settings and socio-economic groups. Conclusion: Our findings endorse the importance of investigating behavioral and environmental factors that influence and mediate healthy dietary behavior prior to intervention development. Several culture-specific factors emerged that were incorporated into a conceptual framework for developing health promotion interventions in Ecuador