The Role of Landscape‐Dependent Disturbance and Dispersal in Metapopulation Persistence.

The fundamental processes that influence metapopulation dynamics (extinction and recolonization) will often depend on landscape structure. Disturbances that increase patch extinction rates will frequently be landscape dependent such that they are spatially aggregated and have an increased likelihood of occurring in some areas. Similarly, landscape structure can influence organism movement, producing asymmetric dispersal between patches. Using a stochastic, spatially explicit model, we examine how landscape‐dependent correlations between dispersal and disturbance rates influence metapopulation dynamics. Habitat patches that are situated in areas where the likelihood of disturbance is low will experience lower extinction rates and will function as partial refuges. We discovered that the presence of partial refuges increases metapopulation viability and that the value of partial refuges was contingent on whether dispersal was also landscape dependent. Somewhat counterintuitively, metapopulation viability was reduced when individuals had a preponderance to disperse away from refuges and was highest when there was biased dispersal toward refuges. Our work demonstrates that landscape structure needs to be incorporated into metapopulation models when there is either empirical data or ecological rationale for extinction and/or dispersal rates being landscape dependent

Planning for Persistence in Marine Reserves: A Question of Catastrophic importance

Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by >60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate

Predicting the optimal amount of time to spend learning before designating protected habitat for threatened species

1. Deciding when to protect threatened species habitat when complete knowledge about the habitat extent is uncertain is a common problem in conservation. More accurate habitat mapping improves conservation outcomes once that habitat is protected. However, delaying protection to improve accuracy can lead to species decline or, at worst, local extinction when threats to that habitat continue unabated before protection is implemented. Hence, there is a trade-off between gaining knowledge and taking conservation action. 2. We quantified this trade-off and determined the optimal time to spend learning about a species' habitat before protecting that habitat. We used a range of hypothetical learning curves to model improvements in the accuracy of predicted habitat over time, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to model the corresponding increase in the proportion of habitat protected. We used rates of habitat loss to model the impact of delaying habitat protection and derived analytical solutions to the problem for different types of learning curves. 3. We illustrate our approach using two threatened species, the koala Phascolarctos cinereus in Australia and northern abalone Haliotis kamtschatkana in Canada. Our approach confirms that when impacts of threatening processes are incurred rapidly, the need for timely protection is high, and the optimal time to spend learning is short for all learning curves. When the rate of habitat loss is low, we benefit from better habitat identification, and the optimal time to protect is sensitive to assumptions about how we learn and the proportion of non-habitat we are willing to protect unnecessarily. 4. Navigating the trade-off between information gain and timely action is a common problem in conservation. By optimizing the trade-off between the benefits of improving mapping accuracy and the costs of delaying protection, we provide guidelines on the effective allocation of resources between habitat identification and habitat protection. Importantly, by explicitly modelling this trade-off with a range of learning curves and estimates of the rates of habitat loss or other threatening processes, we can predict the optimal time to spend learning even when relatively little is known about a species and its habitat.Abbey E. Camaclang, Iadine Chadès, Tara G. Martin, Hugh P. Possingha

Does Conservation Planning Matter in a Dynamic and Uncertain World?

We show that while comprehensive reserve network design is best when the entire network can be implemented immediately, when conservation investments must be staged over years, such solutions actually may be sub-optimal in the context of biodiversity loss and uncertainty

Ecological criteria for evaluation candidate sites for marine reserves

Several schemes have been developed to help select the locations of marine reserves. All of them combine social, economic, and biological criteria, and few offer any guidance as to how to prioritize among the criteria identified. This can imply that the relative weights given to different criteria are unimportant. Where two sites are of equal value ecologically, then socioeconomic criteria should dominate the choice of which should be protected. However, in many cases, socioeconomic criteria are given equal or greater weight than ecological considerations in the choice of sites. This can lead to selection of reserves with little biological value that fail to meet many of the desired objectives. To avoid such a possibility, we develop a series of criteria that allow preliminary evaluation of candidate sites according to their relative biological values in advance of the application of socioeconomic criteria. We include criteria that, while not strictly biological, have a strong influence on the species present or ecological processes. Our scheme enables sites to be assessed according to their biodiversity, the processes which underpin that diversity, and the processes that support fisheries and provide a spectrum of other services important to people. Criteria that capture biodiversity values include biogeographic representation, habitat representation and heterogeneity, and presence of species or populations of special interest (e.g., threatened species). Criteria that capture sustainability of biodiversity and fishery values include the size of reserves necessary to protect viable habitats, presence of exploitable species, vulnerable life stages, connectivity among reserves, links among ecosystems, and provision of ecosystem services to people. Criteria measuring human and natural threats enable candidate sites to be eliminated from consideration if risks are too great, but also help prioritize among sites where threats can be mitigated by protection. While our criteria can be applied to the design of reserve networks, they also enable choice of single reserves to be made in the context of the attributes of existing protected areas. The overall goal of our scheme is to promote the development of reserve networks that will maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning at large scales. The values of ecosystem goods and services for people ultimately depend on meeting this objective

Optimal allocation of nature-based solutions to achieve climate mitigation and adaptation goals

Nature-based solutions (NbS) can prevent further climate change and increase local communities' capacity to adapt to the current impacts of climate change. However, the benefits obtained from implementing NbS are not distributed equally across people. Thus, it is key to further understand how people are impacted when implementing NbS. We developed a multi-objective prioritization approach to identify changes in (i) the biophysical provision of ecosystem services, (ii) optimal allocation of NbS and (iii) monetary benefits when targeting climate mitigation versus climate adaptation goals. We used the increase in metric tons of carbon storage as representative of climate mitigation and the decrease in on-site and downstream tons of sediment per year as representative of climate adaptation. Planning strategies that target climate mitigation or climate adaptation goals separately represent a loss of between 30% and 60% of the maximum possible carbon sequestration or sediment retention benefits. Conversely, targeting climate mitigation and climate adaptation goals at the same time captured more than 90% of the maximum possible benefits for all objectives. Priority NbS in the mitigation planning strategy included soil and water conservation and forest rehabilitation, while priority NbS in the adaptation planning strategy included grassland rehabilitation and hill terrace improvement. Targeting mitigation and adaptation goals at the same time captures 35M USD (89% of the maximum attainable) in value of carbon restored and retained, and 2M USD (100% of the maximum attainable) of avoided maintenance costs to the KGA hydropower plant. Conversely, failing to incorporate adaptation goals when developing climate plans only captures 1M of avoided maintenance costs to the KGA hydropower plant. Our approach can be replicated in other locations to promote cost-effective investments in NbS able to secure both global and local benefits to people. This can improve the outcomes of international climate change financial schemes like the Green Climate Fund and the UN-REDD+ program. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.Jaramar Villarreal-Rosas, Jonathan R. Rhodes, Laura J. Sonter, Hugh P. Possingham, Adrian L. Vog

Trade-offs between efficiency, equality and equity in restoration for flood protection

Conservation decision-makers and practitioners increasingly strive for efficient and equitable outcomes for people and nature. However, environmental management programs commonly benefit some groups of people more than others, and very little is known about how efforts to promote equality (i.e. even distributions) and equity (i.e. proportional distributions) trade-off against efficiency (i.e. total net outcome per dollar spent). Based on a case study in the Brigalow Belt Bioregion, Australia, we quantified trade-offs between equality, equity, and efficiency in planning for flood protection. We considered optimal restoration strategies that allocate a fixed budget (a) evenly among beneficiary sectors (i.e. seeking equality among urban residents, rural communities, and the food sector), (b) evenly among local government areas (LGAs) within the Brigalow Belt (i.e. seeking spatial equality), and (c) preferentially to areas of highest socioeconomic disadvantage (i.e. seeking equity). We assessed equality using the Gini coefficient, and equity using an index of socioeconomic disadvantage. At an AUD10M budget, evenly distributing the budget among beneficiary sectors was 80% less efficient than ignoring beneficiary groups, and did not improve equality in the distribution of flood protection among beneficiary sectors. Evenly distributing the budget among LGAs ensured restoration in four areas that were otherwise ignored, with a modest reduction in efficiency (12%–25%). Directing flood protection to areas of highest socioeconomic disadvantage did not result in additional reductions in efficiency, and captured areas of high disadvantage for the rural and urban sectors that were missed otherwise. We show here that different ways of targeting equity and equality lead to quite different trade-offs with efficiency. Our approach can be used to guide transparent negotiations between beneficiaries and other stakeholders involved in a planning process.Jaramar Villarreal-Rosas, Adrian L Vogl, Laura J Sonter, Hugh P Possingham, and Jonathan R Rhode

Using Cox's Proportional Hazard Models to Implement Optimal Strategies: An Example from Behavioural Ecology

Simple behavioural rules, or "rules of thumb", which lead to behaviour that closely approximates an optimal strategy, have generated a lot of recent interest in the field of foraging behaviour. In this paper, we derive rules of thumb from a stochastic simulation model in which the foragers behave optimally. We use a particular biological system: the patch leaving behaviour of a parasitoid. We simulate parasitoids whose patch leaving behaviour is determined by a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model, while allowing parasitoids to make mistakes in their estimation of host density when arriving in a patch. We use Cox's proportional hazards models to obtain statistical rules of thumb from the simulated behaviour. This represents the first use of a proportional hazard approximation to generate rules of thumb from a complex optimal strategy

Modelling the impacts of wildfire on the viability of metapopulations of the endangered Australian species of arboreal marsupial, Leadbeater's Possum

Catastrophic events such as intensive wildfires have a major effect on the dynamics of some wildlife populations. In this investigation, the computer package ALEX (Analysis of the Likelihood of EXtinction), was used to simulate the impacts of wildfires on the persistence of metapopulations of the endangered species Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) which is restricted to the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria. A range of scenarios was examined. First, the response of G. leadbeateri to tires in hypothetical patches of old growth forest of varying size was modelled. Metapopulation dynamics were then modelled in four existing forest management areas: the O'Shannassy Water Catchment and the Steavenson, Ada and Murrindindi Forest Blocks using GIS-derived forest inventory data on complex spatial arrangements of potentially suitable old growth habitat patches. The impacts of different fire frequencies and the proportion of forest area that was burnt in the Steavenson Forest Block and the O'Shannassy Water Catchment were examined. Finally, the combined impacts of both wildfires and post-fire salvage logging operations on the persistence of populations of G. leadbeateri were assessed. Our analyses indicated that, even in the absence of wildfires, populations of G. leadbeateri are very susceptible to extinction within single isolated habitat patches of 20 ha or less. The probability of persistence approached 100% in patches of 250 ha. The incorporation of the effects of wildfire was predicted to have a major negative impact on isolated populations of G. leadbeateri. In these cases, the probability of population extinction remained above 60%, even when a single patch of 1200 ha of old growth forest was modelled. In the absence of wildfires, there was a low probability of extinction of G. leadbeateri in the O'Shannassy Water Catchment where very large patches of old growth forest presently exist. The risk of extinction of the species was significantly higher in the Murrindindi and Ada Forest Blocks where there are lower total areas of, and significantly smaller, suitable habitat patches. Wildfires resulted in an increase in the predicted probability of metapopulation extinction in the four areas that were targeted for study. An investigation of the Steavenson Forest Block and the O'Shannassy Water Catchment revealed that the predicted values for the probability of extinction were sensitive to inter-relationships between the frequency of fires and the proportion of habitat patches that were burnt during a given fire event. The probability of extinction of G. leadbeateri was predicted to be lowest when there were frequent fires that burnt only relatively small areas of a given forest block. Conversely, the results of our analyses suggested that populations of the species are vulnerable to infrequent but intensive conflagrations that burnt a large proportion of the forest. The results of the suite of analyses completed in this study suggest hat four management strategies will be important for the long-term conservation of G. leadbeateri. (1) Attempts to suppress wildfires should be maintained as even the largest remaining areas of old growth forest may be susceptible to being burnt by repeated widespread wildfires that could result in localised and/or global extinction of the species. (2) Because the probability of population persistence is greatest in those areas that support more extensive stands of old growth forest, it will be important to grow relatively large patches of existing regrowth forest (over 50 ha) through to ecological maturity. This will be particularly important in some wood production forest blocks where there are only limited areas of old growth forest. (3) Patches that are set aside for the conservation of G. leadbeateri should be spatially separated to minimise the risk that all of the reserved areas in a region are destroyed in a single major fire event. (4) Salvage logging operations should be excluded from stands of old growth forest and reserved areas that are burnt in a wildfire. This is because such activities can have a major negative impact of the development of suitable habitat for G. leadbeateri

The Conservation Of Arboreal Marsupials In The Montane Ash Forests Of The Central Highlands Of Victoria, South-Eastern Australia - VII. Modelling The Persistence Of Leadbeater's Possum In Response To Modified Timber Harvesting Practices

A computer model for Population Viability Analysis (PVA) was used to simulate the relationship between the persistence of populations of the endangered species, Leadbeater's possum, Gymnobelideus leadbeateri and the implementation of a range of possible modified timber harvesting practices in two wood production blocks within the montane ash forests of the central highlands of Victoria, south-eastern Australia. The results of our analyses revealed that under the existing conservation strategies there was a high probability of extinction over the next 150 years in both blocks. Given that timber production areas comprise more than 75% of the distribution of G. leadbeateri, our findings highlight a need for additional conservation measures to enhance the survival prospects of the species. The range of upgraded conservation strategies that were examined included (1) extending the rotation time between logging operations; (2) modifying silvicultural practices to increase the amount of forest retained within each harvested coupe; and (3) permanently withdrawing areas from wood production. All of each of these approaches were found significantly to reduce the probability of extinction of populations of G. leadbeateri. However, when the relative merits of the various strategies were compared, the permanent withdrawal of potential logging coupes from timber harvesting was predicted to be the most efficient approach. Importantly, this strategy would have a number of practical advantages including that it overcomes both (1) the logistic difficulties of ensuring the long-term survival of retained trees within logged areas; and (2) human safety issues arising from implementing modified silvicultural practices. This practical application of PVA to compare the merits of different potential management options has provided new information that will enhance present efforts to conserve G. leadbeateri in wood production areas