Potential climate change impacts on the water balance of subcatchments of the River Spree, Germany

Lusatia is considered one of the driest regions of Germany. The climatic water balance is negative even under current climate conditions. Due to global climate change, increased temperatures and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter are expected. Therefore, it is of major interest whether the excess water in winter can be stored and to which extent it is used up on increasing evapotranspiration. Thus, this study focuses on estimating potential climate change impacts on the water balance of two subcatchments of the River Spree using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM). Climate input was taken from 100 realisations each of two scenarios of the STatistical Analogue Resampling scheme STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0 K (scenario A) and 2 K by the year 2055 (scenario B) respectively. Resulting from increased temperatures and a shift in precipitation from summer to winter actual evapotranspiration is supposed to increase in winter and early spring, but to decrease in later spring and early summer. This is less pronounced for scenario A than for scenario B. Consequently, also the decrease in discharge and groundwater recharge in late spring is lower for scenario A than for scenario B. The highest differences of runoff generation and groundwater recharge between the two scenarios but also the highest ranges within the scenarios occur in summer and early autumn. It is planned to estimate potential climate change for the catchments of Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse

The efficacy of halofantrine in the treatment of acute malaria in nonimmune travelers

A multicenter prospective trial was performed to investigate the efficacy and the tolerability of halofantrine in nonimmune patients with malaria imported from areas with drug-resistant falciparum parasites (mainly Africa). Forty-five of the 74 subjects were treated with a one-day regimen (3 x 500 mg) of halofantrine, and the other 29 received the same regimen with an additional treatment on day 7. In the second group, a 100% efficacy rate was demonstrated, but in the group receiving the one-day regimen, four recrudescences were observed in patients with falciparum malaria. Only five mild adverse reactions were seen, which disappeared spontaneously after the end of the treatment. We conclude that halofantrine is highly effective in curing malaria in nonimmune subjects. The treatment scheme for such persons should include an additional treatment on day 7 for nonimmune individuals. This drug was well tolerated in our patients, indicating that halofantrine will be useful in the treatment of multidrug-resistant malaria in nonimmune persons

Complex Numbers, Quantum Mechanics and the Beginning of Time

A basic problem in quantizing a field in curved space is the decomposition of the classical modes in positive and negative frequency. The decomposition is equivalent to a choice of a complex structure in the space of classical solutions. In our construction the real tunneling geometries provide the link between the this complex structure and analytic properties of the classical solutions in a Riemannian section of space. This is related to the Osterwalder- Schrader approach to Euclidean field theory.Comment: 27 pages LATEX, UCSBTH-93-0

Potential climate change impacts on the water balance of subcatchments of the River Spree, Germany

Lusatia is considered one of the driest regions of Germany. The climatic water balance is negative even under current climate conditions. Due to global climate change, increased temperatures and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter are expected. Therefore, it is of major interest whether the excess water in winter can be stored and to which extent it is used up on increasing evapotranspiration. Thus, this study focuses on estimating potential climate change impacts on the water balance of two subcatchments of the River Spree using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM). Climate input was taken from 100 realisations each of two scenarios of the STatistical Analogue Resampling scheme STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0 K (scenario A) and 2 K by the year 2055 (scenario B) respectively. Resulting from increased temperatures and a shift in precipitation from summer to winter actual evapotranspiration is supposed to increase in winter and early spring, but to decrease in later spring and early summer. This is less pronounced for scenario A than for scenario B. Consequently, also the decrease in discharge and groundwater recharge in late spring is lower for scenario A than for scenario B. The highest differences of runoff generation and groundwater recharge between the two scenarios but also the highest ranges within the scenarios occur in summer and early autumn. It is planned to estimate potential climate change for the catchments of Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse

Early cephalopod evolution clarified through Bayesian phylogenetic inference

Background: Despite the excellent fossil record of cephalopods, their early evolution is poorly understood. Different, partly incompatible phylogenetic hypotheses have been proposed in the past, which reflected individual author's opinions on the importance of certain characters but were not based on thorough cladistic analyses. At the same time, methods of phylogenetic inference have undergone substantial improvements. For fossil datasets, which typically only include morphological data, Bayesian inference and in particular the introduction of the fossilized birth-death model have opened new possibilities. Nevertheless, many tree topologies recovered from these new methods reflect large uncertainties, which have led to discussions on how to best summarize the information contained in the posterior set of trees. Results: We present a large, newly compiled morphological character matrix of Cambrian and Ordovician cephalopods to conduct a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis and resolve existing controversies. Our results recover three major monophyletic groups, which correspond to the previously recognized Endoceratoidea, Multiceratoidea, and Orthoceratoidea, though comprising slightly different taxa. In addition, many Cambrian and Early Ordovician representatives of the Ellesmerocerida and Plectronocerida were recovered near the root. The Ellesmerocerida is para- and polyphyletic, with some of its members recovered among the Multiceratoidea and early Endoceratoidea. These relationships are robust against modifications of the dataset. While our trees initially seem to reflect large uncertainties, these are mainly a consequence of the way clade support is measured. We show that clade posterior probabilities and tree similarity metrics often underestimate congruence between trees, especially if wildcard taxa are involved. Conclusions: Our results provide important insights into the earliest evolution of cephalopods and clarify evolutionary pathways. We provide a classification scheme that is based on a robust phylogenetic analysis. Moreover, we provide some general insights on the application of Bayesian phylogenetic inference on morphological datasets. We support earlier findings that quartet similarity metrics should be preferred over the Robinson-Foulds distance when higher-level phylogenetic relationships are of interest and propose that using a posteriori pruned maximum clade credibility trees help in assessing support for phylogenetic relationships among a set of relevant taxa, because they provide clade support values that better reflect the phylogenetic signal.Peer reviewe

The fluvial architecture of buried floodplain sediments of the Weiße Elster River (Germany) revealed by a novel method combination of drill cores with two‐dimensional and spatially resolved geophysical measurements

The complex and non-linear fluvial river dynamics are characterized by repeated periods of fluvial erosion and re-deposition in different parts of the floodplain. Understanding the fluvial architecture (i.e. the three-dimensional arrangement and genetic interconnectedness of different sediment types) is therefore fundamental to obtain well-based information about controlling factors. However, investigating the fluvial architecture in buried floodplain deposits without natural exposures is challenging. We studied the fluvial architecture of the middle Weiße Elster floodplain in Central Germany, an extraordinary long-standing archive of Holocene flooding and landscape changes in sensitive loess-covered Central European landscapes. We applied a novel systematic approach by coupling two-dimensional transects of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements and closely spaced core drillings with spatially resolved measurements of electromagnetic induction (EMI) of larger floodplain areas at three study sites. This allowed for (i) time and cost-efficient core drillings based on preceding ERT measurements and (ii) spatially scaling up the main elements of the fluvial architecture, such as the distribution of thick silt-clay overbank deposits and paleochannel patterns from the floodplain transects to larger surrounding areas. We found that fine-grained sand and silt-clay overbank deposits overlying basal gravels were deposited during several periods of intensive flooding. Those were separated from each other by periods of reduced flooding, allowing soil formation. However, the overbank deposits were severely laterally eroded before and during each sedimentation period. This was probably linked with pronounced meandering or even braiding of the river. Our preliminary chronological classification suggests that first fine-grained sedimentation must have occurred during the Early to Middle Holocene, and the last phase of lateral erosion and sedimentation during the Little Ice Age. Our study demonstrates the high archive potential of the buried fluvial sediments of the middle Weiße Elster floodplain and provides a promising time and cost-effective approach for future studies of buried floodplain sediments

Chemoenzymatic Probes for Detecting and Imaging Fucose-α(1-2)-galactose Glycan Biomarkers

The disaccharide motif fucose-α(1-2)-galactose (Fucα(1-2)Gal) is involved in many important physiological processes, such as learning and memory, inflammation, asthma, and tumorigenesis. However, the size and structural complexity of Fucα(1-2)Gal-containing glycans have posed a significant challenge to their detection. We report a new chemoenzymatic strategy for the rapid, sensitive detection of Fucα(1-2)Gal glycans. We demonstrate that the approach is highly selective for the Fucα(1-2)Gal motif, detects a variety of complex glycans and glycoproteins, and can be used to profile the relative abundance of the motif on live cells, discriminating malignant from normal cells. This approach represents a new potential strategy for biomarker detection and expands the technologies available for understanding the roles of this important class of carbohydrates in physiology and disease

Diagnosing the influence of diabatic processes on the explosive deepening of extratropical cyclones

A novel version of the classical surface pressure tendency equation (PTE) is applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data to quantitatively assess the contribution of diabatic processes to the deepening of extratropical cyclones relative to effects of temperature advection and vertical motions. The five cyclone cases selected, Lothar and Martin in December 1999, Kyrill in January 2007, Klaus in January 2009, and Xynthia in February 2010, all showed explosive deepening and brought considerable damage to parts of Europe. For Xynthia, Klaus and Lothar diabatic processes contribute more to the observed surface pressure fall than horizontal temperature advection during their respective explosive deepening phases, while Kyrill and Martin appear to be more baroclinically driven storms. The powerful new diagnostic tool presented here can easily be applied to large numbers of cyclones and will help to better understand the role of diabatic processes in future changes in extratropical storminess