NOx and O3 above a tropical rainforest: an analysis with a global and box model

A cross-platform field campaign, OP3, was conducted in the state of Sabah in Malaysian Borneo between April and July of 2008. Among the suite of observations recorded, the campaign included measurements of NOx and O3 – crucial outputs of any model chemistry mechanism. We describe the measurements of these species made from both the ground site and aircraft. We then use the output from two resolutions of the chemistry transport model p-TOMCAT to illustrate the ability of a global model chemical mechanism to capture the chemistry at the rainforest site. The basic model performance is good for NOx and poor for ozone. A box model containing the same chemical mechanism is used to explore the results of the global model in more depth and make comparisons between the two. Without some parameterization of the nighttime boundary layer – free troposphere mixing (i.e. the use of a dilution parameter), the box model does not reproduce the observations, pointing to the importance of adequately representing physical processes for comparisons with surface measurements. We conclude with a discussion of box model budget calculations of chemical reaction fluxes, deposition and mixing, and compare these results to output from p-TOMCAT. These show the same chemical mechanism behaves similarly in both models, but that emissions and advection play particularly strong roles in influencing the comparison to surface measurements

Low Liver Enzymes and Risk of Dementia: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Background: Low levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) in the low physiologic range, surrogate markers for reduced liver metabolic function, are associated with cerebral hypometabolism, impairment in neurotransmitter production and synaptic maintenance, and a higher prevalence of dementia. It is unknown whether a prospective association exists between low liver enzyme levels and incident dementia. Objective: To determine whether low levels of ALT and AST are associated with higher risk of incident dementia. Methods: Plasma ALT and AST were measured on 10,100 study participants (mean age 63.2 years, 55% female, 22% black) in 1996-1998. Dementia was ascertained from comprehensive neuropsychological assessments, annual contact, and medical record surveillance. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association. Results: During a median follow-up of 18.3 years (maximum 21.9 years), 1,857 individuals developed dementia. Adjusted for demographic factors, incidence rates of dementia were higher at the lower levels of ALT and AST. Compared to the second quintile, ALT values <10th percentile were associated with a higher risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.34, 95% CI 1.08-1.65). The corresponding HR was 1.22 (0.99-1.51) for AST. Conclusion: Plasma aminotransferases <10th percentile of the physiologic range at mid-life, particularly ALT, were associated with greater long-term risk of dementia, advocating for attention to the putative role of hepatic function in the pathogenesis of dementia

Fractal Reconnection in Solar and Stellar Environments

Recent space based observations of the Sun revealed that magnetic reconnection is ubiquitous in the solar atmosphere, ranging from small scale reconnection (observed as nanoflares) to large scale one (observed as long duration flares or giant arcades). Often the magnetic reconnection events are associated with mass ejections or jets, which seem to be closely related to multiple plasmoid ejections from fractal current sheet. The bursty radio and hard X-ray emissions from flares also suggest the fractal reconnection and associated particle acceleration. We shall discuss recent observations and theories related to the plasmoid-induced-reconnection and the fractal reconnection in solar flares, and their implication to reconnection physics and particle acceleration. Recent findings of many superflares on solar type stars that has extended the applicability of the fractal reconnection model of solar flares to much a wider parameter space suitable for stellar flares are also discussed.Comment: Invited chapter to appear in "Magnetic Reconnection: Concepts and Applications", Springer-Verlag, W. D. Gonzalez and E. N. Parker, eds. (2016), 33 pages, 18 figure

Virus infection and grazing exert counteracting influences on survivorship of native bunchgrass seedlings competing with invasive exotics

1.  Invasive annual grasses introduced by European settlers have largely displaced native grassland vegetation in California and now form dense stands that constrain the establishment of native perennial bunchgrass seedlings. Bunchgrass seedlings face additional pressures from both livestock grazing and barley and cereal yellow dwarf viruses (B/CYDVs), which infect both young and established grasses throughout the state. 2.  Previous work suggested that B/CYDVs could mediate apparent competition between invasive exotic grasses and native bunchgrasses in California. 3.  To investigate the potential significance of virus-mediated mortality for early survivorship of bunchgrass seedlings, we compared the separate and combined effects of virus infection, competition and simulated grazing in a field experiment. We infected two species of young bunchgrasses that show different sensitivity to B/CYDV infection, subjected them to competition with three different densities of exotic annuals crossed with two clipping treatments, and monitored their growth and first-year survivorship. 4.  Although virus infection alone did not reduce first-year survivorship, it halved the survivorship of bunchgrasses competing with exotics. Within an environment in which competition strongly reduces seedling survivorship (as in natural grasslands), virus infection therefore has the power to cause additional seedling mortality and alter patterns of establishment. 5.  Surprisingly, clipping did not reduce bunchgrass survivorship further, but rather doubled it and disproportionately increased survivorship of infected bunchgrasses. 6.  Together with previous work, these findings show that B/CYDVs can be potentially powerful elements influencing species interactions in natural grasslands. 7.  More generally, our findings demonstrate the potential significance of multitrophic interactions in virus ecology. Although sometimes treated collectively as plant ‘predators’, viruses and herbivores may exert influences that are distinctly different, even counteracting

Smartwatch games: Encouraging privacy-protective behaviour in a longitudinal study

While the public claim concern for their privacy, they frequently appear to overlook it. This disparity between concern and behaviour is known as the Privacy Paradox. Such issues are particularly prevalent on wearable devices. These products can store personal data, such as text messages and contact details. However, owners rarely use protective features. Educational games can be effective in encouraging changes in behaviour. Therefore, we developed the first privacy game for (Android) Wear OS watches. 10 participants used smartwatches for two months, allowing their high-level settings to be monitored. Five individuals were randomly assigned to our treatment group, and they played a dynamically-customised privacy-themed game. To minimise confounding variables, the other five received the same app but lacking the privacy topic. The treatment group improved their protection, with their usage of screen locks significantly increasing (p = 0.043). In contrast, 80% of the control group continued to never restrict their settings. After the posttest phase, we evaluated behavioural rationale through semi-structured interviews. Privacy concerns became more nuanced in the treatment group, with opinions aligning with behaviour. Actions appeared influenced primarily by three factors: convenience, privacy salience and data sensitivity. This is the first smartwatch game to encourage privacy-protective behaviour

Dynamic contrast-enhanced CT compared with positron emission tomography CT to characterise solitary pulmonary nodules : the SPUtNIk diagnostic accuracy study and economic modelling

Background Current pathways recommend positron emission tomography–computerised tomography for the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules. Dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography may be a more cost-effective approach. Objectives To determine the diagnostic performances of dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography and positron emission tomography–computerised tomography in the NHS for solitary pulmonary nodules. Systematic reviews and a health economic evaluation contributed to the decision-analytic modelling to assess the likely costs and health outcomes resulting from incorporation of dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography into management strategies. Design Multicentre comparative accuracy trial. Setting Secondary or tertiary outpatient settings at 16 hospitals in the UK. Participants Participants with solitary pulmonary nodules of ≥ 8 mm and of ≤ 30 mm in size with no malignancy in the previous 2 years were included. Interventions Baseline positron emission tomography–computerised tomography and dynamic contrast-enhanced computer tomography with 2 years’ follow-up. Main outcome measures Primary outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy for positron emission tomography–computerised tomography and dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared management strategies that used dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography with management strategies that did not use dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography. Results A total of 380 patients were recruited (median age 69 years). Of 312 patients with matched dynamic contrast-enhanced computer tomography and positron emission tomography–computerised tomography examinations, 191 (61%) were cancer patients. The sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy for positron emission tomography–computerised tomography and dynamic contrast-enhanced computer tomography were 72.8% (95% confidence interval 66.1% to 78.6%), 81.8% (95% confidence interval 74.0% to 87.7%), 76.3% (95% confidence interval 71.3% to 80.7%) and 95.3% (95% confidence interval 91.3% to 97.5%), 29.8% (95% confidence interval 22.3% to 38.4%) and 69.9% (95% confidence interval 64.6% to 74.7%), respectively. Exploratory modelling showed that maximum standardised uptake values had the best diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the curve of 0.87, which increased to 0.90 if combined with dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography peak enhancement. The economic analysis showed that, over 24 months, dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography was less costly (£3305, 95% confidence interval £2952 to £3746) than positron emission tomography–computerised tomography (£4013, 95% confidence interval £3673 to £4498) or a strategy combining the two tests (£4058, 95% confidence interval £3702 to £4547). Positron emission tomography–computerised tomography led to more patients with malignant nodules being correctly managed, 0.44 on average (95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.49), compared with 0.40 (95% confidence interval 0.35 to 0.45); using both tests further increased this (0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.51). Limitations The high prevalence of malignancy in nodules observed in this trial, compared with that observed in nodules identified within screening programmes, limits the generalisation of the current results to nodules identified by screening. Conclusions Findings from this research indicate that positron emission tomography–computerised tomography is more accurate than dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography for the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules. A combination of maximum standardised uptake value and peak enhancement had the highest accuracy with a small increase in costs. Findings from this research also indicate that a combined positron emission tomography–dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography approach with a slightly higher willingness to pay to avoid missing small cancers or to avoid a ‘watch and wait’ policy may be an approach to consider. Future work Integration of the dynamic contrast-enhanced component into the positron emission tomography–computerised tomography examination and the feasibility of dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography at lung screening for the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules should be explored, together with a lower radiation dose protocol. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018112215 and CRD42019124299, and the trial is registered as ISRCTN30784948 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02013063

Comparative Accuracy and Cost-Effectiveness of Dynamic Contrast Enhanced Computed Tomography and Positron Emission Tomography in the Characterisation of Solitary Pulmonary Nodules

Abstract Introduction: Dynamic contrast-enhanced computed tomography (DCE-CT) and Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (PET/CT) have a high reported accuracy for the diagnosis of malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these. Methods: In this prospective multicentre trial, 380 participants with a solitary pulmonary nodule (8-30mm) and no recent history of malignancy underwent DCE-CT and PET/CT. All patients underwent either biopsy with histological diagnosis or completed CT follow-up. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity, and overall diagnostic accuracy for PET/CT and DCE-CT. Costs and cost-effectiveness were estimated from a healthcare provider perspective using a decision-model. Results: 312 participants (47% female, 68.1±9.0 years) completed the study, with 61% rate of malignancy at 2 years. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values for DCE-CT were 95.3% [95% CI 91.3;97.5], 29.8% [95% CI 22.3;38.4], 68.2% [95% CI 62.4%;73.5%] and 80.0% [95% CI 66.2;89.1] respectively, and for PET/CT were 79.1% [95% CI 72.7;84.2], 81.8% [95% CI 74.0;87.7], 87.3%[95% CI 81.5;91.5) and 71·2% [95% CI 63.2;78.1]. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for DCE-CT and PET/CT was 0.62 [95%CI 0.58;0.67] and 0.80 [95%CI 0.76;0.85] respectively (p<0.001). Combined results significantly increased diagnostic accuracy over PET/CT alone (AUROC=0.90 [95%CI 0.86;0.93], p<0.001). DCE-CT was preferred when the willingness to pay per incremental cost per correctly treated malignancy was below £9000. Above £15500 a combined approach was preferred. Conclusions: PET/CT has a superior diagnostic accuracy to DCE-CT for the diagnosis of solitary pulmonary nodules. Combining both techniques improves the diagnostic accuracy over either test alone and could be cost-effective. (Clinical trials.gov - NCT02013063)

Novel genetic loci associated with hippocampal volume

The hippocampal formation is a brain structure integrally involved in episodic memory, spatial navigation, cognition and stress responsiveness. Structural abnormalities in hippocampal volume and shape are found in several common neuropsychiatric disorders. To identify the genetic underpinnings of hippocampal structure here we perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 33,536 individuals and discover six independent loci significantly associated with hippocampal volume, four of them novel. Of the novel loci, three lie within genes (ASTN2, DPP4 and MAST4) and one is found 200 kb upstream of SHH. A hippocampal subfield analysis shows that a locus within the MSRB3 gene shows evidence of a localized effect along the dentate gyrus, subiculum, CA1 and fissure. Further, we show that genetic variants associated with decreased hippocampal volume are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (rg =-0.155). Our findings suggest novel biological pathways through which human genetic variation influences hippocampal volume and risk for neuropsychiatric illness

The genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex

INTRODUCTION The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities. Variations in human cortical surface area and thickness are associated with neurological, psychological, and behavioral traits and can be measured in vivo by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Studies in model organisms have identified genes that influence cortical structure, but little is known about common genetic variants that affect human cortical structure. RATIONALE To identify genetic variants associated with human cortical structure at both global and regional levels, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain MRI data from 51,665 individuals across 60 cohorts. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 cortical regions with known functional specializations. RESULTS We identified 306 nominally genome-wide significant loci (P < 5 × 10−8) associated with cortical structure in a discovery sample of 33,992 participants of European ancestry. Of the 299 loci for which replication data were available, 241 loci influencing surface area and 14 influencing thickness remained significant after replication, with 199 loci passing multiple testing correction (P < 8.3 × 10−10; 187 influencing surface area and 12 influencing thickness). Common genetic variants explained 34% (SE = 3%) of the variation in total surface area and 26% (SE = 2%) in average thickness; surface area and thickness showed a negative genetic correlation (rG = −0.32, SE = 0.05, P = 6.5 × 10−12), which suggests that genetic influences have opposing effects on surface area and thickness. Bioinformatic analyses showed that total surface area is influenced by genetic variants that alter gene regulatory activity in neural progenitor cells during fetal development. By contrast, average thickness is influenced by active regulatory elements in adult brain samples, which may reflect processes that occur after mid-fetal development, such as myelination, branching, or pruning. When considered together, these results support the radial unit hypothesis that different developmental mechanisms promote surface area expansion and increases in thickness. To identify specific genetic influences on individual cortical regions, we controlled for global measures (total surface area or average thickness) in the regional analyses. After multiple testing correction, we identified 175 loci that influence regional surface area and 10 that influence regional thickness. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes involved in the Wnt signaling pathway, which is known to influence areal identity. We observed significant positive genetic correlations and evidence of bidirectional causation of total surface area with both general cognitive functioning and educational attainment. We found additional positive genetic correlations between total surface area and Parkinson’s disease but did not find evidence of causation. Negative genetic correlations were evident between total surface area and insomnia, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, depressive symptoms, major depressive disorder, and neuroticism. CONCLUSION This large-scale collaborative work enhances our understanding of the genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex and its regional patterning. The highly polygenic architecture of the cortex suggests that distinct genes are involved in the development of specific cortical areas. Moreover, we find evidence that brain structure is a key phenotype along the causal pathway that leads from genetic variation to differences in general cognitive function