Precursor flares in OJ 287

We have studied three most recent precursor flares in the light curve of the blazar OJ 287 while invoking the presence of a precessing binary black hole in the system to explain the nature of these flares. Precursor flare timings from the historical light curves are compared with theoretical predictions from our model that incorporate effects of an accretion disk and post-Newtonian description for the binary black hole orbit. We find that the precursor flares coincide with the secondary black hole descending towards the accretion disk of the primary black hole from the observed side, with a mean z-component of approximately z_c = 4000 AU. We use this model of precursor flares to predict that precursor flare of similar nature should happen around 2020.96 before the next major outburst in 2022.Comment: to appear in the Astrophysical Journa

The Sloan Great Wall. Rich clusters

We present the results of the study of the substructure and galaxy content of ten rich clusters of galaxies in three different superclusters of the Sloan Great Wall. We determine the substructure in clusters using the 'Mclust' package from the 'R' statistical environment and analyse their galaxy content. We analyse the distribution of the peculiar velocities of galaxies in clusters and calculate the peculiar velocity of the first ranked galaxy. We show that clusters in our sample have more than one component; in some clusters different components also have different galaxy content. We find that in some clusters with substructure the peculiar velocities of the first ranked galaxies are large. All clusters in our sample host luminous red galaxies. They can be found both in the central areas of clusters as well as in the outskirts, some of them have large peculiar velocities. About 1/3 of red galaxies in clusters are spirals. The scatter of colours of red ellipticals is in most clusters larger than that of red spirals. The presence of substructure in rich clusters, signs of possible mergers and infall, as well as the large peculiar velocities of the first ranked galaxies suggest that the clusters in our sample are not yet virialized. We present merger trees of dark matter haloes in an N-body simulation to demonstrate the formation of present-day dark matter haloes via multiple mergers during their evolution. In simulated dark matter haloes we find a substructure similar to that in observed clusters.Comment: 19 pages, 44 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

The Unique Blazar OJ 287 and Its Massive Binary Black Hole Central Engine

The bright blazar OJ 287 is the best-known candidate for hosting a nanohertz gravitational wave (GW) emitting supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) in the present observable universe. The binary black hole (BBH) central engine model, proposed by Lehto and Valtonen in 1996, was influenced by the two distinct periodicities inferred from the optical light curve of OJ 287. The current improved model employs an accurate general relativistic description to track the trajectory of the secondary black hole (BH) which is crucial to predict the inherent impact flares of OJ 287. The successful observations of three predicted impact flares open up the possibility of using this BBH system to test general relativity in a hitherto unexplored strong field regime. Additionally, we briefly describe an ongoing effort to interpret observations of OJ 287 in a Bayesian framework

Accretion Disk Parameters Determined from the Great 2015 Flare of OJ 287

In the binary black hole model of OJ. 287, the secondary black hole orbits a much more massive primary, and impacts on the primary accretion disk at predictable times. We update the parameters of the disk, the viscosity, alpha, and the mass accretion rate, . We find alpha = 0.26 +/- 0.1 and = 0.08 +/- 0.04 in Eddington units. The former value is consistent with Coroniti, and the latter with Marscher & Jorstad. Predictions are made for the 2019 July 30 superflare in OJ. 287. We expect that it will take place simultaneously at the Spitzer infrared channels, as well as in the optical, and that therefore the timing of the flare in optical can be accurately determined from Spitzer observations. We also discuss in detail the light curve of the 2015 flare, and find that the radiating volume has regions where bremsstrahlung dominates, as well as regions that radiate primarily in synchrotron radiation. The former region produces the unpolarized first flare, while the latter region gives rise to a highly polarized second flare

Primary Black Hole Spin in OJ 287 as Determined by the General Relativity Centenary Flare

OJ 287 is a quasi-periodic quasar with roughly 12 year optical cycles. It displays prominent outbursts that are predictable in a binary black hole model. The model predicted a major optical outburst in 2015 December. We found that the outburst did occur within the expected time range, peaking on 2015 December 5 at magnitude 12.9 in the optical R -band. Based on Swift /XRT satellite measurements and optical polarization data, we find that it included a major thermal component. Its timing provides an accurate estimate for the spin of the primary black hole, ##IMG## [http://ej.iop.org/images/2041-8205/819/2/L37/apjl523055ieqn1.gif] $i =0.313pm 0.01$ . The present outburst also confirms the established general relativistic properties of the system such as the loss of orbital energy to gravitational radiation at the 2% accuracy level, and it opens up the possibility of testing the black hole no-hair theorem with 10% accuracy during the present decade.Peer reviewe

A Search for QPOs in the Blazar OJ287: Preliminary Results from the 2015/2016 Observing Campaign

We analyse the light curve in the R band of the blazar OJ287, gathered during the 2015/2016 observing season. We did a search for quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) using several methods over a wide range of timescales. No statistically significant periods were found in the high-frequency domain both in the ground-based data and in Kepler observations. In the longer-period domain, the Lomb–Scargle periodogram revealed several peaks above the 99% significance level. The longest one—about 95 days—corresponds to the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) period of the more massive black hole. The 43-day period could be an alias, or it can be attributed to accretion in the form of a two-armed spiral wave.Peer reviewe

Authenticating the Presence of a Relativistic Massive Black Hole Binary in OJ 287 Using Its General Relativity Centenary Flare : Improved Orbital Parameters

Results from regular monitoring of relativistic compact binaries like PSR 1913+16 are consistent with the dominant (quadrupole) order emission of gravitational waves (GWs). We show that observations associated with the binary black hole (BBH) central engine of blazar OJ 287 demand the inclusion of gravitational radiation reaction effects beyond the quadrupolar order. It turns out that even the effects of certain hereditary contributions to GW emission are required to predict impact flare timings of OJ 287. We develop an approach that incorporates this effect into the BBH model for OJ 287. This allows us to demonstrate an excellent agreement between the observed impact flare timings and those predicted from ten orbital cycles of the BBH central engine model. The deduced rate of orbital period decay is nine orders of magnitude higher than the observed rate in PSR 1913+16, demonstrating again the relativistic nature of OJ 287's central engine. Finally, we argue that precise timing of the predicted 2019 impact flare should allow a test of the celebrated black hole "no-hair theorem" at the 10% level.Peer reviewe