Epidemiology and predictive management of gray leaf spot of maize

Models were developed to assess the risk and predict the severity of gray leaf spot of maize, and to describe relationships between environmental variables and the rate of lesion expansion and sporulation of the causal organism, Cercospora zeae-maydis. Environmental, genotype, and site-specific data were collected from 50 locations in Iowa between 1998 and 2002 and used as input variables for model development, while disease severity at the R4/R5 growth stage of maize was used as the response variable. Pre-planting data were used to develop risk assessment models using ordinal logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) modeling approaches. The logistic regression models correctly classified 66 to 73% of the validation cases, while the CART model correctly classified 56 to 73% of these cases. All-subsets regression and artificial neural network (ANN) models were used to predict the severity of gray leaf spot based on early- and mid-season data. All-subsets regression was performed to select the best subsets of predictor variables based on Mallow\u27s Cp criteria. These variables were then used as input for ANN model development. A three-layer, feed-forward, back-propagation network with three hidden nodes was used to model the data. A random sample of 60% of the cases was used to train the network, and 20% each for testing and validation. The predictive accuracy of the top four networks ranged from 70 to 75%, with mean squared errors ranging form 174.7 to 202.8. Quadratic regression was used to model the relationship between temperature and lesion expansion, and between temperature and sporulation of C. zeae-maydis at 100% RH, while loess nonparametric regression was used to model the relationship among sporulation and, temperature and relative humidity. Optimum temperatures for lesion expansion and sporulation were between 25 and 30°C. These results provide a better understanding of the effects of the environment on the development of gray leaf spot of maize. The risk assessment and prediction models may be used to develop timely and cost-effective management programs for this disease. More robust, mechanistic risk assessment models may be possible using data from controlled-environment studies on lesion expansion, sporulation, and other components of the disease cycle

Distribuição geográfica da Sigatoka Negra da bananeira estimada por modelos de mudanças climáticas globais

As mudanças climáticas poderão alterar as doenças de plantas e afetar a eficácia das medidas de manejo. Um dos prováveis impactos será na distribuição geográfica das doenças. A Sigatoka Negra é considerada a principal doença da cultura da banana em decorrência dos danos causados e aumento do custo de manejo. O impacto sócio-econômico da doença continua aumentando, uma vez que a doença tem atingido novas áreas de plantio, tornando o manejo mais difícil. Este trabalho tem por objetivos comparar a distribuição geográfica da doença por meio da elaboração de mapas nas seguintes situações: a) clima atual e futuro (2020, 2050 e 2080), b) cenários A2 e B2 do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas, c) predito por seis diferentes modelos de mudanças climáticas e pela média dos mesmos e, d) entre meses. Haverá redução das áreas favoráveis à doença no futuro, sendo que tal redução será mais acentuada no cenário A2 do que no B2 e gradativa para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080. Predições efetuadas com o uso da média dos dados estimados pelos modelos permitiram redução na variabilidade da simulação em comparação com a predição gerada por cada modelo individualmente. Alterações na distribuição geográfica da doença ocorrerão entre meses, de modo que áreas consideradas desfavoráveis tornar-se-ão favoráveis e vice-versa. Apesar disso, extensas áreas continuarão favoráveis ao desenvolvimento da Sigatoka Negra.Global climatic changes will potentially influence plant diseases and the efficacy of their management options. One of the most likely impacts of climate change will be felt by the geographical distribution of plant diseases. Black Sigatoka is considered the most damaging and costly disease of banana. The socio-economic impact of this disease has continued to increase as the pathogen reaches new areas and the disease becomes more difficult to be controled. The objectives of this research were to compare the global geographical distribution of the disease based on maps elaborated using weather data representing: i) current and future periods (2020, 2050 and 2080), ii) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios A2 and B2, iii) predictions based on six different climate change models and the " multimodel ensemble" and, iv) individual months. The " multimodel ensemble" lead to a reduction in the variability of the simulations when compared to the results obtained using the individual models separately. The predictions suggested that, in the future, areas favorable for the development of the Black Sigatoka disease will decrease. This reduction will occur gradually and will be higher for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. Changes in the geographical distribution of the disease will occur from one month to another, with unfavorable areas becoming favorable and vice-versa. However, in spite of these changes, extensive areas will still continue to be favorable for the occurrence of Black Sigatoka

An Ethnographic Study of Students' Views of Group Work

Poster with the results of a collaborative ethnographic study of students' views of group work. The study was conducted within the framework of the anthropology course 810.21: Research Design and Ethnographic Methods (Spring 2011) taught by Dr. Mark Moritz

Adverse events in people taking macrolide antibiotics versus placebo for any indication

BACKGROUND: Macrolide antibiotics (macrolides) are among the most commonly prescribed antibiotics worldwide and are used for a wide range of infections. However, macrolides also expose people to the risk of adverse events. The current understanding of adverse events is mostly derived from observational studies, which are subject to bias because it is hard to distinguish events caused by antibiotics from events caused by the diseases being treated. Because adverse events are treatment-specific, rather than disease-specific, it is possible to increase the number of adverse events available for analysis by combining randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of the same treatment across different diseases. OBJECTIVES:To quantify the incidences of reported adverse events in people taking macrolide antibiotics compared to placebo for any indication. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group Specialised Register (2018, Issue 4); MEDLINE (Ovid, from 1946 to 8 May 2018); Embase (from 2010 to 8 May 2018); CINAHL (from 1981 to 8 May 2018); LILACS (from 1982 to 8 May 2018); and Web of Science (from 1955 to 8 May 2018). We searched clinical trial registries for current and completed trials (9 May 2018) and checked the reference lists of included studies and of previous Cochrane Reviews on macrolides. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included RCTs that compared a macrolide antibiotic to placebo for any indication. We included trials using any of the four most commonly used macrolide antibiotics: azithromycin, clarithromycin, erythromycin, or roxithromycin. Macrolides could be administered by any route. Concomitant medications were permitted provided they were equally available to both treatment and comparison groups. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted and collected data. We assessed the risk of bias of all included studies and the quality of evidence for each outcome of interest. We analysed specific adverse events, deaths, and subsequent carriage of macrolide-resistant bacteria separately. The study participant was the unit of analysis for each adverse event. Any specific adverse events that occurred in 5% or more of any group were reported. We undertook a meta-analysis when three or more included studies reported a specific adverse event. MAIN RESULTS: We included 183 studies with a total of 252,886 participants (range 40 to 190,238). The indications for macrolide antibiotics varied greatly, with most studies using macrolides for the treatment or prevention of either acute respiratory tract infections, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal conditions, or urogynaecological problems. Most trials were conducted in secondary care settings. Azithromycin and erythromycin were more commonly studied than clarithromycin and roxithromycin.Most studies (89%) reported some adverse events or at least stated that no adverse events were observed.Gastrointestinal adverse events were the most commonly reported type of adverse event. Compared to placebo, macrolides caused more diarrhoea (odds ratio (OR) 1.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34 to 2.16; low-quality evidence); more abdominal pain (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.26; low-quality evidence); and more nausea (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.90; moderate-quality evidence). Vomiting (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.56; moderate-quality evidence) and gastrointestinal disorders not otherwise specified (NOS) (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.56 to 3.00; moderate-quality evidence) were also reported more often in participants taking macrolides compared to placebo.The number of additional people (absolute difference in risk) who experienced adverse events from macrolides was: gastrointestinal disorders NOS 85/1000; diarrhoea 72/1000; abdominal pain 62/1000; nausea 47/1000; and vomiting 23/1000.The number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) ranged from 12 (95% CI 8 to 23) for gastrointestinal disorders NOS to 17 (9 to 47) for abdominal pain; 19 (12 to 33) for diarrhoea; 19 (13 to 30) for nausea; and 45 (22 to 295) for vomiting.There was no clear consistent difference in gastrointestinal adverse events between different types of macrolides or route of administration.Taste disturbances were reported more often by participants taking macrolide antibiotics, although there were wide confidence intervals and moderate heterogeneity (OR 4.95, 95% CI 1.64 to 14.93; Iand#178; = 46%; low-quality evidence).Compared with participants taking placebo, those taking macrolides experienced hearing loss more often, however only four studies reported this outcome (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.70; Iand#178; = 0%; low-quality evidence).We did not find any evidence that macrolides caused more cardiac disorders (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.40; very low-quality evidence); hepatobiliary disorders (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.27 to 4.09; very low-quality evidence); or changes in liver enzymes (OR 1.56, 95% CI 0.73 to 3.37; very low-quality evidence) compared to placebo.We did not find any evidence that appetite loss, dizziness, headache, respiratory symptoms, blood infections, skin and soft tissue infections, itching, or rashes were reported more often by participants treated with macrolides compared to placebo.Macrolides caused less cough (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.80; moderate-quality evidence) and fewer respiratory tract infections (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.80; moderate-quality evidence) compared to placebo, probably because these are not adverse events, but rather characteristics of the indications for the antibiotics. Less fever (OR 0.73, 95% 0.54 to 1.00; moderate-quality evidence) was also reported by participants taking macrolides compared to placebo, although these findings were non-significant.There was no increase in mortality in participants taking macrolides compared with placebo (OR 0.96, 95% 0.87 to 1.06; Iand#178; = 11%; low-quality evidence).Only 24 studies (13%) provided useful data on macrolide-resistant bacteria. Macrolide-resistant bacteria were more commonly identified among participants immediately after exposure to the antibiotic. However, differences in resistance thereafter were inconsistent.Pharmaceutical companies supplied the trial medication or funding, or both, for 91 trials. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The macrolides as a group clearly increased rates of gastrointestinal adverse events. Most trials made at least some statement about adverse events, such as "none were observed". However, few trials clearly listed adverse events as outcomes, reported on the methods used for eliciting adverse events, or even detailed the numbers of people who experienced adverse events in both the intervention and placebo group. This was especially true for the adverse event of bacterial resistance.</p

The influence of hip circumference on the relationship between abdominal obesity and mortality

Background Higher waist circumference and lower hip circumference are both associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, despite being directly correlated. The real effects of visceral obesity may therefore be underestimated when hip circumference is not fully taken into account. We hypothesized that adding waist and hip circumference to traditional risk factors would significantly improve CVD risk prediction

Insights into the Ecology and Evolutionary Success of Crocodilians Revealed through Bite-Force and Tooth-Pressure Experimentation

BackgroundCrocodilians have dominated predatory niches at the water-land interface for over 85 million years. Like their ancestors, living species show substantial variation in their jaw proportions, dental form and body size. These differences are often assumed to reflect anatomical specialization related to feeding and niche occupation, but quantified data are scant. How these factors relate to biomechanical performance during feeding and their relevance to crocodilian evolutionary success are not known.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe measured adult bite forces and tooth pressures in all 23 extant crocodilian species and analyzed the results in ecological and phylogenetic contexts. We demonstrate that these reptiles generate the highest bite forces and tooth pressures known for any living animals. Bite forces strongly correlate with body size, and size changes are a major mechanism of feeding evolution in this group. Jaw shape demonstrates surprisingly little correlation to bite force and pressures. Bite forces can now be predicted in fossil crocodilians using the regression equations generated in this research.Conclusions/SignificanceCritical to crocodilian long-term success was the evolution of a high bite-force generating musculo-skeletal architecture. Once achieved, the relative force capacities of this system went essentially unmodified throughout subsequent diversification. Rampant changes in body size and concurrent changes in bite force served as a mechanism to allow access to differing prey types and sizes. Further access to the diversity of near-shore prey was gained primarily through changes in tooth pressure via the evolution of dental form and distributions of the teeth within the jaws. Rostral proportions changed substantially throughout crocodilian evolution, but not in correspondence with bite forces. The biomechanical and ecological ramifications of such changes need further examination

Tipping the Balance: Robustness of Tip Cell Selection, Migration and Fusion in Angiogenesis

Vascular abnormalities contribute to many diseases such as cancer and diabetic retinopathy. In angiogenesis new blood vessels, headed by a migrating tip cell, sprout from pre-existing vessels in response to signals, e.g., vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). Tip cells meet and fuse (anastomosis) to form blood-flow supporting loops. Tip cell selection is achieved by Dll4-Notch mediated lateral inhibition resulting, under normal conditions, in an interleaved arrangement of tip and non-migrating stalk cells. Previously, we showed that the increased VEGF levels found in many diseases can cause the delayed negative feedback of lateral inhibition to produce abnormal oscillations of tip/stalk cell fates. Here we describe the development and implementation of a novel physics-based hierarchical agent model, tightly coupled to in vivo data, to explore the system dynamics as perpetual lateral inhibition combines with tip cell migration and fusion. We explore the tipping point between normal and abnormal sprouting as VEGF increases. A novel filopodia-adhesion driven migration mechanism is presented and validated against in vivo data. Due to the unique feature of ongoing lateral inhibition, ‘stabilised’ tip/stalk cell patterns show sensitivity to the formation of new cell-cell junctions during fusion: we predict cell fates can reverse. The fusing tip cells become inhibited and neighbouring stalk cells flip fate, recursively providing new tip cells. Junction size emerges as a key factor in establishing a stable tip/stalk pattern. Cell-cell junctions elongate as tip cells migrate, which is shown to provide positive feedback to lateral inhibition, causing it to be more susceptible to pathological oscillations. Importantly, down-regulation of the migratory pathway alone is shown to be sufficient to rescue the sprouting system from oscillation and restore stability. Thus we suggest the use of migration inhibitors as therapeutic agents for vascular normalisation in cancer