An application of physiological anthropometry: the determination of leg subcutaneous fat, muscle and bone widths and volumes in young male and female adults

An application of physiological anthropometry: the determination of leg subcutaneous fat, muscle and bone widths and volumes in young male and female adult

Modeling parasite dynamics on farmed salmon for precautionary conservation management of wild salmon

Conservation management of wild fish may include fish health management in sympatric populations of domesticated fish in aquaculture. We developed a mathematical model for the population dynamics of parasitic sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on domesticated populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Broughton Archipelago region of British Columbia. The model was fit to a seven-year dataset of monthly sea louse counts on farms in the area to estimate population growth rates in relation to abiotic factors (temperature and salinity), local host density (measured as cohort surface area), and the use of a parasiticide, emamectin benzoate, on farms. We then used the model to evaluate management scenarios in relation to policy guidelines that seek to keep motile louse abundance below an average three per farmed salmon during the March-June juvenile wild Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) migration. Abiotic factors mediated the duration of effectiveness of parasiticide treatments, and results suggest treatment of farmed salmon conducted in January or early February minimized average louse abundance per farmed salmon during the juvenile wild salmon migration. Adapting the management of parasites on farmed salmon according to migrations of wild salmon may therefore provide a precautionary approach to conserving wild salmon populations in salmon farming regions

A High Statistics Search for Ultra-High Energy Gamma-Ray Emission from Cygnus X-3 and Hercules X-1

We have carried out a high statistics (2 Billion events) search for ultra-high energy gamma-ray emission from the X-ray binary sources Cygnus X-3 and Hercules X-1. Using data taken with the CASA-MIA detector over a five year period (1990-1995), we find no evidence for steady emission from either source at energies above 115 TeV. The derived upper limits on such emission are more than two orders of magnitude lower than earlier claimed detections. We also find no evidence for neutral particle or gamma-ray emission from either source on time scales of one day and 0.5 hr. For Cygnus X-3, there is no evidence for emission correlated with the 4.8 hr X-ray periodicity or with the occurrence of large radio flares. Unless one postulates that these sources were very active earlier and are now dormant, the limits presented here put into question the earlier results, and highlight the difficulties that possible future experiments will have in detecting gamma-ray signals at ultra-high energies.Comment: 26 LaTeX pages, 16 PostScript figures, uses psfig.sty to be published in Physical Review

The Chandra Deep Wide-field Survey: A New Chandra Legacy Survey in the Boötes Field. I. X-Ray Point Source Catalog, Number Counts, and Multiwavelength Counterparts

We present a new, ambitious survey performed with the Chandra X-ray Observatory of the 9.3 deg2 Boötes field of the NOAO Deep Wide-Field Survey. The wide field probes a statistically representative volume of the universe at high redshift. The Chandra Deep Wide-field Survey exploits the excellent sensitivity and angular resolution of Chandra over a wide area, combining 281 observations spanning 15 yr, for a total exposure time of 3.4 Ms, and detects 6891 X-ray point sources down to limiting fluxes of 4.7 × 10−16, 1.5 × 10−16, and 9 ×10−16 erg cm−2 s−1 in the 0.5–7, 0.5–2, and 2–7 keV bands, respectively. The robustness and reliability of the detection strategy are validated through extensive, state-of-the-art simulations of the whole field. Accurate number counts, in good agreement with previous X-ray surveys, are derived thanks to the uniquely large number of point sources detected, which resolve 65.0% ± 12.8% of the cosmic X-ray background between 0.5 and 2 keV and 81.0% ± 11.5% between 2 and 7 keV. Exploiting the wealth of multiwavelength data available on the field, we assign redshifts to ~94% of the X-ray sources, estimate their obscuration, and derive absorption-corrected luminosities. We provide an electronic catalog containing all of the relevant quantities needed for future investigations

Development of a clinical prediction model for in-hospital mortality from the South African cohort of the African surgical outcomes study

BACKGROUND : Data on the factors that influence mortality after surgery in South Africa are scarce, and neither these data nor data on risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality after surgery are routinely collected. Predictors related to the context or setting of surgical care delivery may also provide insight into variation in practice. Variation must be addressed when planning for improvement of risk-adjusted outcomes. Our objective was to identify the factors predicting in-hospital mortality after surgery in South Africa from available data. METHODS : A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify predictors of 30-day in-hospital mortality in surgical patients in South Africa. Data from the South African contribution to the African Surgical Outcomes Study were used and included 3800 cases from 51 hospitals. A forward stepwise regression technique was then employed to select for possible predictors prior to model specification. Model performance was evaluated by assessing calibration and discrimination. The South African Surgical Outcomes Study cohort was used to validate the model. RESULTS : Variables found to predict 30-day in-hospital mortality were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status category, urgent or emergent surgery, major surgery, and gastrointestinal-, head and neck-, thoracic- and neurosurgery. The area under the receiver operating curve or c-statistic was 0.859 (95% confidence interval: 0.827–0.892) for the full model. Calibration, as assessed using a calibration plot, was acceptable. Performance was similar in the validation cohort as compared to the derivation cohort. CONCLUSION : The prediction model did not include factors that can explain how the context of care influences post-operative mortality in South Africa. It does, however, provide a basis for reporting risk-adjusted perioperative mortality rate in the future, and identifies the types of surgery to be prioritised in quality improvement projects at a local or national level.http://link.springer.com/journal/268hj2022AnaesthesiologyMaxillo-Facial and Oral SurgerySurger

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

New insights into the genetic etiology of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias

Characterization of the genetic landscape of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias (ADD) provides a unique opportunity for a better understanding of the associated pathophysiological processes. We performed a two-stage genome-wide association study totaling 111,326 clinically diagnosed/'proxy' AD cases and 677,663 controls. We found 75 risk loci, of which 42 were new at the time of analysis. Pathway enrichment analyses confirmed the involvement of amyloid/tau pathways and highlighted microglia implication. Gene prioritization in the new loci identified 31 genes that were suggestive of new genetically associated processes, including the tumor necrosis factor alpha pathway through the linear ubiquitin chain assembly complex. We also built a new genetic risk score associated with the risk of future AD/dementia or progression from mild cognitive impairment to AD/dementia. The improvement in prediction led to a 1.6- to 1.9-fold increase in AD risk from the lowest to the highest decile, in addition to effects of age and the APOE ε4 allele