Polar Northern Hemisphere Middle Atmospheric Influence due to Energetic Particle Precipitation in January 2005

Solar eruptions and geomagnetic activity led to energetic particle precipitation in early 2005, primarily during the January 16-21 period. Production of OH and destruction of ozone have been documented due to the enhanced energetic solar proton flux in January 2005 [e.g., Verronen et al., Geophys. Res. Lett.,33,L24811,doi:10.1029/2006GL028115, 2006; Seppala et al., Geophys. Res. Lett.,33,L07804, doi:10.1029/2005GL025571,2006]. These solar protons as well as precipitating electrons also led to the production of NO(x) (NO, NO2). Our simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) show that NO(x) is enhanced by 20-50 ppbv in the polar Northern Hemisphere middle mesosphere (approx.60-70 km) by January 18. Both the SCISAT-1 Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) NO(x) measurements and Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIP AS) nighttime NO2 observations show large increases during this period, in reasonable agreement with WACCM predictions. Such enhancements are considerable for the mesosphere and led to simulated increases in polar Northern Hemisphere upper stratospheric odd nitrogen (NO(y)) of2-5 ppbv into February 2005. The largest ground level enhancement (GLE) of solar cycle 23 occurred on January 20, 2005 with a neutron monitor increase of about 270 percent [Gopalswamy et al., 29th International Cosmic Ray Conference, Pune,00,101-104,2005]. We found that protons of energies 300 to 20,000 MeV, not normally included in our computations, led to enhanced stratospheric NO(y) of less than 1 percent as a result of this GLE. The atmospheric impact of precipitating middle energy electrons (30-2,500 keV) during the January 16-21, 2005 period is also of interest, and an effort is ongoing to include these in WACCM computations. This presentation will show both short- and longer-term changes due to the January 2005 energetic particle precipitation

Simulation study for ground-based Ku-band microwave observations of ozone and hydroxyl in the polar middle atmosphere

The Ku-band microwave frequencies (10.70–14.25 GHz) overlap emissions from ozone (O3) at 11.072 GHz and hydroxyl radical (OH) at 13.441 GHz. These important chemical species in the polar middle atmosphere respond strongly to high-latitude geomagnetic activity associated with space weather. Atmospheric model calculations predict that energetic electron precipitation (EEP) driven by magnetospheric substorms produces large changes in polar mesospheric O3 and OH. The EEP typically peaks at geomagnetic latitudes of ∼65∘ and evolves rapidly with time longitudinally and over the geomagnetic latitude range 60–80∘. Previous atmospheric modelling studies have shown that during substorms OH abundance can increase by more than an order of magnitude at 64–84 km and mesospheric O3 losses can exceed 50 %. In this work, an atmospheric simulation and retrieval study has been performed to determine the requirements for passive microwave radiometers capable of measuring diurnal variations in O3 and OH profiles from high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and Antarctic locations to verify model predictions. We show that, for a 11.072 GHz radiometer making 6 h spectral measurements with 10 kHz frequency resolution and root-mean-square baseline noise of 1 mK, O3 could be profiled over 8×10−4–0.22 hPa (∼98–58 km) with 10–17 km height resolution and ∼1 ppmv uncertainty. For the equivalent 13.441 GHz measurements with vertical sensor polarisation, OH could be profiled over 3×10−3–0.29 hPa (∼90–56 km) with 10–17 km height resolution and ∼3 ppbv uncertainty. The proposed observations would be highly applicable to studies of EEP, atmospheric dynamics, planetary-scale circulation, chemical transport, and the representation of these processes in polar and global climate models. Such observations would provide a relatively low-cost alternative to increasingly sparse satellite measurements of the polar middle atmosphere, extending long-term data records and also providing “ground truth” calibration data

Mesospheric nitric acid enhancements during energetic electron precipitation events simulated by WACCM‐D

While observed mesospheric polar nitric acid enhancements have been attributed to energetic particle precipitation through ion cluster chemistry in the past, this phenomenon is not reproduced in current whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate models. We investigate such nitric acid enhancements resulting from energetic electron precipitation events using a recently developed variant of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) that includes a sophisticated ion chemistry tailored for the D-layer of the ionosphere (50-90 km), namely WACCM-D. Using the specified-dynamics mode, i.e., nudging dynamics in the troposphere and stratosphere to meteorological re-analyses, we perform a one-year long simulation (July 2009-June 2010) and contrast WACCM-D with the standard WACCM. Both WACCM and WACCM-D simulations are performed with and without forcing from medium-to-high energy electron precipitation, allowing a better representation of the energetic electrons penetrating into the mesosphere. We demonstrate the effects of the strong particle precipitation events which occurred during April and May 2010 on nitric acid and on key ion cluster species, as well as other relevant species of the nitrogen family. The one-year-long simulation allows the event-related changes in neutral and ionic species to be placed in the context of their annual cycle. We especially highlight the role played by medium-to-high energy electrons in triggering ion cluster chemistry and ion-ion recombinations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the precipitation event, leading to enhanced production of nitric acid and raising its abundance by two orders of magnitude from 10-4 to a few 10-2 ppb

HEPPA-II model-measurement intercomparison project : EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx D NO+NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMO-NIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March-April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NO x tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2-0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05-0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with mediumtop models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of- the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.Peer reviewe

HEPPA-II model–measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx  =  NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models\u27 gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March–April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2–0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05–0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions

Plasma-neutral interactions in the lower thermosphere-ionosphere : The need for in situ measurements to address focused questions

The lower thermosphere-ionosphere (LTI) is a key transition region between Earth's atmosphere and space. Interactions between ions and neutrals maximize within the LTI and in particular at altitudes from 100 to 200 km, which is the least visited region of the near-Earth environment. The lack of in situ co-temporal and co-spatial measurements of all relevant parameters and their elusiveness to most remote-sensing methods means that the complex interactions between its neutral and charged constituents remain poorly characterized to this date. This lack of measurements, together with the ambiguity in the quantification of key processes in the 100-200 km altitude range affect current modeling efforts to expand atmospheric models upward to include the LTI and limit current space weather prediction capabilities. We present focused questions in the LTI that are related to the complex interactions between its neutral and charged constituents. These questions concern core physical processes that govern the energetics, dynamics, and chemistry of the LTI and need to be addressed as fundamental and long-standing questions in this critically unexplored boundary region. We also outline the range of in situ measurements that are needed to unambiguously quantify key LTI processes within this region, and present elements of an in situ concept based on past proposed mission concepts.Peer reviewe

Lower-thermosphere–ionosphere (LTI) quantities: current status of measuring techniques and models

The lower-thermosphere-ionosphere (LTI) system consists of the upper atmosphere and the lower part of the ionosphere and as such comprises a complex system coupled to both the atmosphere below and space above. The atmospheric part of the LTI is dominated by laws of continuum fluid dynamics and chemistry, while the ionosphere is a plasma system controlled by electromagnetic forces driven by the magnetosphere, the solar wind, as well as the wind dynamo. The LTI is hence a domain controlled by many different physical processes. However, systematic in situ measurements within this region are severely lacking, although the LTI is located only 80 to 200 km above the surface of our planet. This paper reviews the current state of the art in measuring the LTI, either in situ or by several different remote-sensing methods. We begin by outlining the open questions within the LTI requiring high-quality in situ measurements, before reviewing directly observable parameters and their most important derivatives. The motivation for this review has arisen from the recent retention of the Daedalus mission as one among three competing mission candidates within the European Space Agency (ESA) Earth Explorer 10 Programme. However, this paper intends to cover the LTI parameters such that it can be used as a background scientific reference for any mission targeting in situ observations of the LTI.Peer reviewe

Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics

We have modeled the atmospheric impact of a major solar energetic particle event similar in intensity to what is thought of the Carrington Event of 1–2 September 1859. Ionization rates for the August 1972 solar proton event, which had an energy spectrum comparable to the Carrington Event, were scaled up in proportion to the fluence estimated for both events. We have assumed such an event to take place in the year 2020 in order to investigate the impact on the modern, near future atmosphere. Effects on atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics were investigated using the 3-D Chemistry Climate Model SOCOL v2.0. We find significant responses of NOx, HOx, ozone, temperature and zonal wind. Ozone and NOx have in common an unusually strong and long-lived response to this solar proton event. The model suggests a 3-fold increase of NOx generated in the upper stratosphere lasting until the end of November, and an up to 10-fold increase in upper mesospheric HOx. Due to the NOx and HOx enhancements, ozone reduces by up to 60–80% in the mesosphere during the days after the event, and by up to 20–40% in the middle stratosphere lasting for several months after the event. Total ozone is reduced by up to 20 DU in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 10 DU in the Southern Hemisphere. Free tropospheric and surface air temperatures show a significant cooling of more than 3 K and zonal winds change significantly by 3–5 m s−1 in the UTLS region. In conclusion, a solar proton event, if it took place in the near future with an intensity similar to that ascribed to of the Carrington Event of 1859, must be expected to have a major impact on atmospheric composition throughout the middle atmosphere, resulting in significant and persistent decrease in total ozone.ISSN:1680-7375ISSN:1680-736

Global ozone loss following extreme solar proton storms based on the July 2012 coronal mass ejection

Abstract Large solar coronal mass ejections pose a threat in the near-Earth space. As a cause of extreme periods of space weather, they can damage satellite-based communications and create geomagnetically induced currents in power and energy grids. Further, the solar wind energetic particles can reduce the protecting layer of atmospheric ozone and pose a threat to life on Earth. The large coronal mass ejection (CME) of July 2012, although directed away from the Earth, is often highlighted as a prime example of a potentially devastating super storm. Here we show, based on proton fluxes recorded by the instruments aboard the STEREO-A satellite, that the atmospheric response to the July 2012 event would have been comparable to those of the largest solar proton events of the satellite era. Significant impact on total ozone outside polar regions would require a much larger event, similar to those recorded in historical proxy data sets. Such an extreme event would cause long-term ozone reduction all the way to the equator and increase the size, duration, and depth of the Antarctic ozone hole. The impact would be comparable to predicted drastic and sudden ozone reduction from major volcanic eruptions, regional nuclear conflicts, or long-term stratospheric geoengineering

Precipitating radiation belt electrons and enhancements of mesospheric hydroxyl during 2004–2009

Energetic particle precipitation leads to enhancement of odd hydrogen (HOx) below 80 km altitude through water cluster ion chemistry. Using measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS/Aura) and Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector (MEPED/POES) between 2004–2009, we study variations of nighttime OH caused by radiation belt electrons at geomagnetic latitudes 55–65°. For those months with daily mean 100–300 keV electron count rate exceeding 150 counts/s in the outer radiation belt, we find a strong correlation (r ≥ 0.6) between OH mixing ratios at 70–78 km (0.046–0.015 hPa) and precipitating electrons. Correlations r ≥ 0.35, corresponding to random chance probability p ≤ 5%, are observed down to52 km (0.681 hPa), while no clear correlation is observed at altitudes below. This suggests that the fluxes of ≥3 MeV electrons were not high enough to cause observable changes in OH mixing ratios. At 75 km, in about 34% of the 65 months analyzed we find a correlation r ≥ 0.35. Although similar results are obtained for both hemispheres in general, in some cases the differences in atmospheric conditions make the OH response more difficult to detect in the South. Considering the latitude extent of electron forcing, we find clear effects on OH at magnetic latitudes 55–72°, while the lower latitudes are influenced much less. Because the time period 2004–2009 analyzed here coincided with an extended solar minimum, and the year 2009 was anomalously quiet, it is reasonable to assume that our results provide a lower-limit estimation of the importance of energetic electron precipitation at the latitudes considered