124 research outputs found
Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and feedback on the winter climate in CMIP5 control simulations
This study examines the relationship between the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and the wintertime atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic in simulations of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparisons of internal (using preindustrial control simulations) and externally forced (using historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 simulations) simulated AMV with observations suggest that the CMIP5 models lack internally generated AMV, except for two models (GFDL-ESM2G and HadGEM2-ES). A long-term influence of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the AMV is identified, but no consistent feedback of the AMV onto the atmospheric circulation is found among the models. However, GFDL-ESM2G and HadGEM2-ES show a small lagged NAO signal that suggests a driving role of the ocean on decadal fluctuations of the atmosphere, with two different potential mechanisms. HadGEM2-ES exhibits a latitudinal shift of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone that can modulate the NAO through a Rossby wave train emanating from the tropics. In GFDL-ESM2G, the AMV is associated with a decrease in storm track activity and a shift of the intraseasonal weather regimes toward the negative NAO regime. These results raise hope that some long-term predictability of the winter climate over the North Atlantic and surrounding continents could be extracted from long-term oceanic fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean, provided that the AMV is correctly represented in coupled ocean-atmosphere models
Changes in Greenlandâs peripheral glaciers linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation
Glaciers and ice caps peripheral to the main Greenland Ice Sheet contribute markedly to sea-level rise1,2,3. Their changes and variability, however, have been difficult to quantify on multi-decadal timescales due to an absence of long-term data4. Here, using historical aerial surveys, expedition photographs, spy satellite imagery and new remote-sensing products, we map glacier length fluctuations of approximately 350 peripheral glaciers and ice caps in East and West Greenland since 1890. Peripheral glaciers are found to have recently undergone a widespread and significant retreat at rates of 12.2âm per year and 16.6âm per year in East and West Greenland, respectively; these changes are exceeded in severity only by the early twentieth century post-Little-Ice-Age retreat. Regional changes in ice volume, as reflected by glacier length, are further shown to be related to changes in precipitation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a distinct eastâwest asymmetry; positive phases of the NAO increase accumulation, and thereby glacier growth, in the eastern periphery, whereas opposite effects are observed in the western periphery. Thus, with projected trends towards positive NAO in the future5,6, eastern peripheral glaciers may remain relatively stable, while western peripheral glaciers will continue to diminish
Is sea-ice-driven Eurasian cooling too weak in models?
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability:
The FACTS and CESM simulations are freely available and were obtained from the following repositories: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/repository/facts and https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/community-projects/LENS
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification
This is the final version. Available on open access from the European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this recordPolar amplification-the phenomenon where external radiative forcing produces a larger change in surface temperature at high latitudes than the global average-is a key aspect of anthropogenic climate change, but its causes and consequences are not fully understood. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016) seeks to improve our understanding of this phenomenon through a coordinated set of numerical model experiments documented here. In particular, PAMIP will address the following primary questions: (1) what are the relative roles of local sea ice and remote sea surface temperature changes in driving polar amplification? (2) How does the global climate system respond to changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice? These issues will be addressed with multi-model simulations that are forced with different combinations of sea ice and/or sea surface temperatures representing present-day, pre-industrial and future conditions. The use of three time periods allows the signals of interest to be diagnosed in multiple ways. Lower-priority tier experiments are proposed to investigate additional aspects and provide further understanding of the physical processes. These experiments will address the following specific questions: what role does ocean-atmosphere coupling play in the response to sea ice? How and why does the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice depend on the pattern of sea ice page1140 forcing? How and why does the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice depend on the model background state? What have been the roles of local sea ice and remote sea surface temperature in polar amplification, and the response to sea ice, over the recent period since 1979? How does the response to sea ice evolve on decadal and longer timescales? A key goal of PAMIP is to determine the real-world situation using imperfect climate models. Although the experiments proposed here form a coordinated set, we anticipate a large spread across models. However, this spread will be exploited by seeking "emergent constraints" in which model uncertainty may be reduced by using an observable quantity that physically explains the intermodel spread. In summary, PAMIP will improve our understanding of the physical processes that drive polar amplification and its global climate impacts, thereby reducing the uncertainties in future projections and predictions of climate change and variability.DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate ProgrammeEuropean Union Horizon 2020Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)National Science Foundation (NSF)Korean Polar Research InstituteBMBFArCSInderDe
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment
âSuperâ Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British-Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an Atmospheric River (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics
Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather
The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-yWe thank R. Blackport, C. Deser, L. Sun, J. Screen and D. Smith for discussions and
suggested revisions to the manuscript. We also thank J. Screen and L. Sun for model data.
A. Amin helped to create Fig. 2. US CLIVAR logistically and financially supported the
Arctic-Midlatitude Working Group and Arctic Change and its Influence on Mid-Latitude
Climate and Weather workshop that resulted in this article. J.C. is supported by the US
National Science Foundation grants AGS-1657748 and PLR-1504361, 1901352. M.W.
acknowledges funding by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft project no. 268020496â
TRR 172, within the Transregional Collaborative Research Center âArctic Amplification:
Climate Relevant Atmospheric and Surface Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms (AC)3
â.
T.V. was supported by the Academy of Finland grant 317999. J.O. was supported by the
NOAA Arctic Research Program. J.F. was supported by the Woods Hole Research Center.
S.W. and H.G. are supported by the US DOE Award Number DE-SC0016605. J.Y. was
supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development
Program under grant KMI2018-01015 and National Research Foundation grant
NRF_2017R1A2B4007480. D.H. is supported by the Helmholtz Association of German
Research Centers (grant FKZ HRSF-0036, project POLEX). The authors acknowledge the
World Climate Research Programmeâs Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is
responsible for CMIP, and thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary
Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US
Department of Energyâs PCMDI provides coordinating support and led development of
software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System
Science Portals.The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as
Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA,
and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational
studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments sup port the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or
suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational
studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather
Arctic change and possible influence on mid-latitude climate and weather: a US CLIVAR White Paper
The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the mid 20th century,
a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). These profound changes to the Arctic system
have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent events of extreme weather across the
Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes, including extreme heat and rainfall events and recent
severe winters. Though winter temperatures have generally warmed since 1960 over mid-to-high
latitudes, the acceleration in the rate of warming at high-latitudes, relative to the rest of the NH,
started approximately in 1990. Trends since 1990 show cooling over the NH continents, especially
in Northern Eurasia.
The possible link between Arctic change and mid-latitude climate and weather has spurred a rush
of new observational and modeling studies. A number of workshops held during 2013-2014 have
helped frame the problem and have called for continuing and enhancing efforts for improving
our understanding of Arctic-mid-latitude linkages and its attribution to the occurrence of extreme
climate and weather events. Although these workshops have outlined some of the major challenges
and provided broad recommendations, further efforts are needed to synthesize the diversified
research results to identify where community consensus and gaps exist.
Building upon findings and recommendations of the previous workshops, the US CLIVAR Working
Group on Arctic Change and Possible Influence on Mid-latitude Climate and Weather convened an
international workshop at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, on February 1-3, 2017. Experts
in the fields of atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere sciences assembled to assess the rapidly evolving
state of understanding, identify consensus on knowledge and gaps in research, and develop specific
actions to accelerate progress within the research community. With more than 100 participants,
the workshop was the largest and most comprehensive gathering of climate scientists to address
the topic to date. In this white paper, we synthesize and discuss outcomes from this workshop and
activities involving many of the working group members
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Recent progress in understanding and predicting Atlantic decadal climate variability
Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems
Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heat waves across central United States
International audienceThe severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socioeconomic and ecological disaster over North America's Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the widespread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world
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Respective impacts of Arctic sea ice decline and increasing greenhouse gases concentration on Sahel precipitation
The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation is uncertain and has to be widely documented. Recently, it has been shown that Arctic sea ice loss leverages the global warming effects worldwide, suggesting a potential impact of Arctic sea ice decline on tropical regions. However, defining the specific roles of increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration and declining Arctic sea ice extent on Sahel climate is not straightforward since the former impacts the latter. We avoid this dependency by analysing idealized experiments performed with the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. Results show that the increase in GHG concentration explains most of the Sahel precipitation change. We found that the impact due to Arctic sea ice loss depends on the level of atmospheric GHG concentration. When the GHG concentration is relatively low (values representative of 1980s), then the impact is moderate over the Sahel. However, when the concentration in GHG is levelled up, then Arctic sea ice loss leads to increased Sahel precipitation. In this particular case the ocean-land meridional gradient of temperature strengthens, allowing a more intense monsoon circulation. We linked the non-linearity of Arctic sea ice decline impact with differences in temperature and sea level pressure changes over the North Atlantic Ocean. We argue that the impact of the Arctic sea ice loss will become more relevant with time, in the context of climate change
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