Discretion in accounting for pensions under IAS 19: using the ‘magic telescope’?

We use a panel data set of UK-listed companies over the period 2005 to 2009 to analyse the actuarial assumptions used to value pension plan liabilities under IAS 19. The valuation process requires companies to make assumptions about financial and demographic variables, notably discount rate, price inflation, salary inflation, and mortality/life expectancy of plan members/beneficiaries. We use regression analysis to analyse the relationships between these key assumptions (except mortality, where disclosures are limited) and company-specific factors such as the pension plan funding position and duration of pension liabilities. We find evidence of selective ‘management’ of the three assumptions investigated, although the nature of this appears to differ from the findings of US authors. We conclude that IAS 19 does not prevent the use of managerial discretion, particularly by companies whose pension plan funding positions are weak, thereby reducing the representational faithfulness of the reported pension figures. We also highlight that the degree of discretion used reflects the extent to which IAS 19 defines how the assumptions are to be determined. We therefore suggest that companies should be encouraged to justify more explicitly their choice of assumptions

Constraining the expansion rate of the Universe using low-redshift ellipticals as cosmic chronometers

We present a new methodology to determine the expansion history of the Universe analyzing the spectral properties of early type galaxies (ETG). We found that for these galaxies the 4000\AA break is a spectral feature that correlates with the relative ages of ETGs. In this paper we describe the method, explore its robustness using theoretical synthetic stellar population models, and apply it using a SDSS sample of $\sim$14 000 ETGs. Our motivation to look for a new technique has been to minimise the dependence of the cosmic chronometer method on systematic errors. In particular, as a test of our method, we derive the value of the Hubble constant $H_0 = 72.6 \pm 2.8$ (stat) $\pm2.3$ (syst) (68% confidence), which is not only fully compatible with the value derived from the Hubble key project, but also with a comparable error budget. Using the SDSS, we also derive, assuming w=constant, a value for the dark energy equation of state parameter $w = -1 \pm 0.2$ (stat) $\pm0.3$ (syst). Given the fact that the SDSS ETG sample only reaches $z \sim 0.3$, this result shows the potential of the method. In future papers we will present results using the high-redshift universe, to yield a determination of H(z) up to $z \sim 1$.Comment: 25 pages, 17 figures, JCAP accepte

Current cosmological bounds on neutrino masses and relativistic relics

We combine the most recent observations of large-scale structure (2dF and SDSS galaxy surveys) and cosmic microwave anisotropies (WMAP and ACBAR) to put constraints on flat cosmological models where the number of massive neutrinos and of massless relativistic relics are both left arbitrary. We discuss the impact of each dataset and of various priors on our bounds. For the standard case of three thermalized neutrinos, we find an upper bound on the total neutrino mass sum m_nu < 1.0 (resp. 0.6) eV (at 2sigma), using only CMB and LSS data (resp. including priors from supernovae data and the HST Key Project), a bound that is quite insensitive to the splitting of the total mass between the three species. When the total number of neutrinos or relativistic relics N_eff is left free, the upper bound on sum m_nu (at 2sigma, including all priors) ranges from 1.0 to 1.5 eV depending on the mass splitting. We provide an explanation of the parameter degeneracy that allows larger values of the masses when N_eff increases. Finally, we show that the limit on the total neutrino mass is not significantly modified in the presence of primordial gravitational waves, because current data provide a clear distinction between the corresponding effects.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Cosmic Chronometers: Constraining the Equation of State of Dark Energy. I: H(z) Measurements

We present new determinations of the cosmic expansion history from red-envelope galaxies. We have obtained for this purpose high-quality spectra with the Keck-LRIS spectrograph of red-envelope galaxies in 24 galaxy clusters in the redshift range 0.2 < z < 1.0. We complement these Keck spectra with high-quality, publicly available archival spectra from the SPICES and VVDS surveys. We improve over our previous expansion history measurements in Simon et al. (2005) by providing two new determinations of the expansion history: H(z) = 97 +- 62 km/sec/Mpc at z = 0.5 and H(z) = 90 +- 40 km/sec/Mpc at z = 0.8. We discuss the uncertainty in the expansion history determination that arises from uncertainties in the synthetic stellar-population models. We then use these new measurements in concert with cosmic-microwave-background (CMB) measurements to constrain cosmological parameters, with a special emphasis on dark-energy parameters and constraints to the curvature. In particular, we demonstrate the usefulness of direct H(z) measurements by constraining the dark- energy equation of state parameterized by w0 and wa and allowing for arbitrary curvature. Further, we also constrain, using only CMB and H(z) data, the number of relativistic degrees of freedom to be 4 +- 0.5 and their total mass to be < 0.2 eV, both at 1-sigma.Comment: Submitted to JCA

Cosmology at the Millennium

One hundred years ago we did not know how stars generate energy, the age of the Universe was thought to be only millions of years, and our Milky Way galaxy was the only galaxy known. Today, we know that we live in an evolving and expanding Universe comprising billions of galaxies, all held together by dark matter. With the hot big-bang model, we can trace the evolution of the Universe from the hot soup of quarks and leptons that existed a fraction of a second after the beginning to the formation of galaxies a few billion years later, and finally to the Universe we see today 13 billion years after the big bang, with its clusters of galaxies, superclusters, voids, and great walls. The attractive force of gravity acting on tiny primeval inhomogeneities in the distribution of matter gave rise to all the structure seen today. A paradigm based upon deep connections between cosmology and elementary particle physics -- inflation + cold dark matter -- holds the promise of extending our understanding to an even more fundamental level and much earlier times, as well as shedding light on the unification of the forces and particles of nature. As we enter the 21st century, a flood of observations is testing this paradigm.Comment: 44 pages LaTeX with 14 eps figures. To be published in the Centennial Volume of Reviews of Modern Physic

Rapid Rule-out of Acute Myocardial Infarction With a Single High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Measurement Below the Limit of Detection: A Collaborative Meta-analysis.

Background: High-sensitivity assays for cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) are sometimes used to rapidly rule out acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Purpose: To estimate the ability of a single hs-cTnT concentration below the limit of detection (<0.005 µg/L) and a nonischemic electrocardiogram (ECG) to rule out AMI in adults presenting to the emergency department (ED) with chest pain. Data Sources: EMBASE and MEDLINE without language restrictions (1 January 2008 to 14 December 2016). Study Selection: Cohort studies involving adults presenting to the ED with possible acute coronary syndrome in whom an ECG and hs-cTnT measurements were obtained and AMI outcomes adjudicated during initial hospitalization. Data Extraction: Investigators of studies provided data on the number of low-risk patients (no new ischemia on ECG and hs-cTnT measurements <0.005 µg/L) and the number who had AMI during hospitalization (primary outcome) or a major adverse cardiac event (MACE) or death within 30 days (secondary outcomes), by risk classification (low or not low risk). Two independent epidemiologists rated risk of bias of studies. Data Synthesis: Of 9241 patients in 11 cohort studies, 2825 (30.6%) were classified as low risk. Fourteen (0.5%) low-risk patients had AMI. Sensitivity of the risk classification for AMI ranged from 87.5% to 100% in individual studies. Pooled estimated sensitivity was 98.7% (95% CI, 96.6% to 99.5%). Sensitivity for 30-day MACEs ranged from 87.9% to 100%; pooled sensitivity was 98.0% (CI, 94.7% to 99.3%). No low-risk patients died. Limitation: Few studies, variation in timing and methods of reference standard troponin tests, and heterogeneity of risk and prevalence of AMI across studies. Conclusion: A single hs-cTnT concentration below the limit of detection in combination with a nonischemic ECG may successfully rule out AMI in patients presenting to EDs with possible emergency acute coronary syndrome. Primary Funding Source: Emergency Care Foundation

A Kinematical Approach to Conformal Cosmology

We present an alternative cosmology based on conformal gravity, as originally introduced by H. Weyl and recently revisited by P. Mannheim and D. Kazanas. Unlike past similar attempts our approach is a purely kinematical application of the conformal symmetry to the Universe, through a critical reanalysis of fundamental astrophysical observations, such as the cosmological redshift and others. As a result of this novel approach we obtain a closed-form expression for the cosmic scale factor R(t) and a revised interpretation of the space-time coordinates usually employed in cosmology. New fundamental cosmological parameters are introduced and evaluated. This emerging new cosmology does not seem to possess any of the controversial features of the current standard model, such as the presence of dark matter, dark energy or of a cosmological constant, the existence of the horizon problem or of an inflationary phase. Comparing our results with current conformal cosmologies in the literature, we note that our kinematic cosmology is equivalent to conformal gravity with a cosmological constant at late (or early) cosmological times. The cosmic scale factor and the evolution of the Universe are described in terms of several dimensionless quantities, among which a new cosmological variable delta emerges as a natural cosmic time. The mathematical connections between all these quantities are described in details and a relationship is established with the original kinematic cosmology by L. Infeld and A. Schild. The mathematical foundations of our kinematical conformal cosmology will need to be checked against current astrophysical experimental data, before this new model can become a viable alternative to the standard theory.Comment: Improved version, with minor changes. 58 pages, including 7 figures and one table. Accepted for publication in General Relativity and Gravitation (GERG

History of clinical transplantation

How transplantation came to be a clinical discipline can be pieced together by perusing two volumes of reminiscences collected by Paul I. Terasaki in 1991-1992 from many of the persons who were directly involved. One volume was devoted to the discovery of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with particular reference to the human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) that are widely used today for tissue matching.1 The other focused on milestones in the development of clinical transplantation.2 All the contributions described in both volumes can be traced back in one way or other to the demonstration in the mid-1940s by Peter Brian Medawar that the rejection of allografts is an immunological phenomenon.3,4 © 2008 Springer New York

Cytogenetic Prognostication Within Medulloblastoma Subgroups

PURPOSE: Medulloblastoma comprises four distinct molecular subgroups: WNT, SHH, Group 3, and Group 4. Current medulloblastoma protocols stratify patients based on clinical features: patient age, metastatic stage, extent of resection, and histologic variant. Stark prognostic and genetic differences among the four subgroups suggest that subgroup-specific molecular biomarkers could improve patient prognostication. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Molecular biomarkers were identified from a discovery set of 673 medulloblastomas from 43 cities around the world. Combined risk stratification models were designed based on clinical and cytogenetic biomarkers identified by multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses. Identified biomarkers were tested using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) on a nonoverlapping medulloblastoma tissue microarray (n = 453), with subsequent validation of the risk stratification models. RESULTS: Subgroup information improves the predictive accuracy of a multivariable survival model compared with clinical biomarkers alone. Most previously published cytogenetic biomarkers are only prognostic within a single medulloblastoma subgroup. Profiling six FISH biomarkers (GLI2, MYC, chromosome 11 [chr11], chr14, 17p, and 17q) on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues, we can reliably and reproducibly identify very low-risk and very high-risk patients within SHH, Group 3, and Group 4 medulloblastomas. CONCLUSION: Combining subgroup and cytogenetic biomarkers with established clinical biomarkers substantially improves patient prognostication, even in the context of heterogeneous clinical therapies. The prognostic significance of most molecular biomarkers is restricted to a specific subgroup. We have identified a small panel of cytogenetic biomarkers that reliably identifies very high-risk and very low-risk groups of patients, making it an excellent tool for selecting patients for therapy intensification and therapy de-escalation in future clinical trials