Phenotype Characterization of HD Intermediate Alleles in PREDICT-HD

BACKGROUND: Huntington disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disease caused by a CAG repeat expansion on chromosome 4. Pathology is associated with CAG repeat length. Prior studies examining people in the intermediate allele (IA) range found subtle differences in motor, cognitive, and behavioral domains compared to controls. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine baseline and longitudinal differences in motor, cognitive, behavioral, functional, and imaging outcomes between persons with CAG repeats in three ranges: normal (≤26), intermediate (27-35), and reduced penetrance (36-39). METHODS: We examined longitudinal data from 389 participants in three allele groups: 280 normal controls (NC), 21 intermediate allele [IA], and 88 reduced penetrance [RP]. We used linear mixed models to identify differences in baseline and longitudinal outcomes between groups. Three models were tested: 1) no baseline or longitudinal differences; 2) baseline differences but no longitudinal differences; and 3) baseline and longitudinal differences. RESULTS: Model 1 was the best fitting model for most outcome variables. Models 2 and 3 were best fitting for some of the variables. We found baseline and longitudinal trends of declining performance across increasing CAG repeat length groups, but no significant differences between the NC and IA groups. CONCLUSION: We did not find evidence to support differences in the IA group compared to the NC group. These findings are limited by a small IA sample size

Re-evaluating and recalibrating predictors of bacterial infection in children with cancer and febrile neutropenia

Background Numerous paediatric febrile neutropenia (FN) clinical decision rules (CDRs) have been derived. Validation studies show reduced performance in external settings. We evaluated the association between variables common across published FN CDRs and bacterial infection and recalibrated existing CDRs using these data. Methods Prospective data from the Australian-PICNICC study which enrolled 858 FN episodes in children with cancer were used. Variables shown to be significant predictors of infection or adverse outcome in >1 CDR were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Recalibration included re-evaluation of beta-coefficients (logistic model) or recursive-partition analysis (tree-based models). Findings Twenty-five unique variables were identified across 17 FN CDRs. Fourteen were included in >1 CDR and 10 were analysed in our dataset. On univariate analysis, location, temperature, hypotension, rigors, severely unwell and decreasing platelets, white cell count, neutrophil count and monocyte count were significantly associated with bacterial infection. On multivariable analysis, decreasing platelets, increasing temperature and the appearance of being clinically unwell remained significantly associated. Five rules were recalibrated. Across all rules, recalibration increased the AUC-ROC and low-risk yield as compared to non-recalibrated data. For the SPOG-adverse event CDR, recalibration also increased sensitivity and specificity and external validation showed reproducibility. Interpretation Degree of marrow suppression (low platelets), features of inflammation (temperature) and clinical judgement (severely unwell) have been consistently shown to predict infection in children with FN. Recalibration of existing CDRs is a novel way to improve diagnostic performance of CDRs and maintain relevance over time

Risk stratification in children with cancer and febrile neutropenia: A national, prospective, multicentre validation of nine clinical decision rules

© 2019 Background: Reduced intensity treatment of low-risk febrile neutropenia (FN) in children with cancer is safe and improves quality of life. Identifying children with low-risk FN using a validated risk stratification strategy is recommended. This study prospectively validated nine FN clinical decision rules (CDRs) designed to predict infection or adverse outcome. Methods: Data were collected on consecutive FN episodes in this multicentre, prospective validation study. The reproducibility and discriminatory ability of each CDR in the validation cohort was compared to the derivation dataset and details of missed outcomes were reported. Findings: There were 858 FN episodes in 462 patients from eight hospitals included. Bacteraemia occurred in 111 (12·9%) and a non-bacteraemia microbiological documented infection in 185 (21·6%). Eight CDRs exhibited reproducibility and sensitivity ranged from 64% to 96%. Rules that had >85% sensitivity in predicting outcomes classified few patients (<20%) as low risk. For three CDRs predicting a composite outcome of any bacterial or viral infection, the sensitivity and discriminatory ability improved for prediction of bacterial infection alone. Across all CDRs designed to be implemented at FN presentation, the sensitivity improved at day 2 assessment. Interpretation: While reproducibility was observed in eight out of the nine CDRs, no rule perfectly differentiated between children with FN at high or low risk of infection. This is in keeping with other validation studies and highlights the need for additional safeguards against missed infections or adverse outcomes before implementation can be considered

Performance of the 12-item WHODAS 2.0 in prodromal Huntington disease

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the PREDICT-HD sites, the study participants, the National Research Roster for Huntington Disease Patients and Families, the Huntington’s Disease Society of America and the Huntington Study Group. This publication was supported by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, and the National Institutes of Health (NIH), through Grant 2 UL1 TR000442-06. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIH. This research is supported by the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (5R01NS040068) awarded to Dr Paulsen, CHDI Foundation, Inc (A3917) awarded to Dr Paulsen, Cognitive and Functional Brain Changes in Preclinical Huntington’s Disease (HD) (5R01NS054893) awarded to Dr Paulsen, 4D Shape Analysis for Modeling Spatiotemporal Change Trajectories in Huntington’s (1U01NS082086), Functional Connectivity in Premanifest Huntington’s Disease (1U01NS082083), and Basal Ganglia Shape Analysis and Circuitry in Huntington’s Disease (1U01NS082085).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Metformin reverses early cortical network dysfunction and behavior changes in Huntington's disease

Catching primal functional changes in early, 'very far from disease onset' (VFDO) stages of Huntington's disease is likely to be the key to a successful therapy. Focusing on VFDO stages, we assessed neuronal microcircuits in premanifest Hdh150 knock-in mice. Employing in vivo two-photon Ca(2+) imaging, we revealed an early pattern of circuit dysregulation in the visual cortex- one of the first regions affected in premanifest Huntington's disease - characterized by an increase in activity, an enhanced synchronicity and hyperactive neurons. These findings are accompanied by aberrations in animal behavior. We furthermore show that the anti-diabetic drug metformin diminishes aberrant Huntingtin protein load and fully restores both, early network activity patterns and behavioral aberrations. This network-centered approach reveals a critical window of vulnerability far before clinical manifestation and establishes metformin as a promising candidate for a chronic therapy starting early in premanifest Huntington's disease pathogenesis long before the onset of clinical symptoms

Using biomarkers to predict TB treatment duration (Predict TB): a prospective, randomized, noninferiority, treatment shortening clinical trial

Background : By the early 1980s, tuberculosis treatment was shortened from 24 to 6 months, maintaining relapse rates of 1-2%. Subsequent trials attempting shorter durations have failed, with 4-month arms consistently having relapse rates of 15-20%. One trial shortened treatment only among those without baseline cavity on chest x-ray and whose month 2 sputum culture converted to negative. The 4-month arm relapse rate decreased to 7% but was still significantly worse than the 6-month arm (1.6%, P<0.01).  We hypothesize that PET/CT characteristics at baseline, PET/CT changes at one month, and markers of residual bacterial load will identify patients with tuberculosis who can be cured with 4 months (16 weeks) of standard treatment.Methods: This is a prospective, multicenter, randomized, phase 2b, noninferiority clinical trial of pulmonary tuberculosis participants. Those eligible start standard of care treatment. PET/CT scans are done at weeks 0, 4, and 16 or 24. Participants who do not meet early treatment completion criteria (baseline radiologic severity, radiologic response at one month, and GeneXpert-detectable bacilli at four months) are placed in Arm A (24 weeks of standard therapy). Those who meet the early treatment completion criteria are randomized at week 16 to continue treatment to week 24 (Arm B) or complete treatment at week 16 (Arm C). The primary endpoint compares the treatment success rate at 18 months between Arms B and C.Discussion: Multiple biomarkers have been assessed to predict TB treatment outcomes. This study uses PET/CT scans and GeneXpert (Xpert) cycle threshold to risk stratify participants. PET/CT scans are not applicable to global public health but could be used in clinical trials to stratify participants and possibly become a surrogate endpoint. If the Predict TB trial is successful, other immunological biomarkers or transcriptional signatures that correlate with treatment outcome may be identified. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02821832

Exome sequencing of individuals with Huntington’s disease implicates FAN1 nuclease activity in slowing CAG expansion and disease onset

The age at onset of motor symptoms in Huntington’s disease (HD) is driven by HTT CAG repeat length but modified by other genes. In this study, we used exome sequencing of 683 patients with HD with extremes of onset or phenotype relative to CAG length to identify rare variants associated with clinical effect. We discovered damaging coding variants in candidate modifier genes identified in previous genome-wide association studies associated with altered HD onset or severity. Variants in FAN1 clustered in its DNA-binding and nuclease domains and were associated predominantly with earlier-onset HD. Nuclease activities of purified variants in vitro correlated with residual age at motor onset of HD. Mutating endogenous FAN1 to a nuclease-inactive form in an induced pluripotent stem cell model of HD led to rates of CAG expansion similar to those observed with complete FAN1 knockout. Together, these data implicate FAN1 nuclease activity in slowing somatic repeat expansion and hence onset of HD

Clinical and biomarker changes in premanifest Huntington disease show trial feasibility: A decade of the PREDICT-HD study

There is growing consensus that intervention and treatment of Huntington disease (HD) should occur at the earliest stage possible. Various early-intervention methods for this fatal neurodegenerative disease have been identified, but preventive clinical trials for HD are limited by a lack of knowledge of the natural history of the disease and a dearth of appropriate outcome measures. Objectives of the current study are to document the natural history of premanifest HD progression in the largest cohort ever studied and to develop a battery of imaging and clinical markers of premanifest HD progression that can be used as outcome measures in preventive clinical trials. Neurobiological predictors of Huntington’s disease is a 32-site, international, observational study of premanifest HD, with annual examination of 1013 participants with premanifest HD and 301 gene-expansion negative controls between 2001 and 2012. Findings document 39 variables representing imaging, motor, cognitive, functional, and psychiatric domains, showing different rates of decline between premanifest HD and controls. Required sample size and models of premanifest HD are presented to inform future design of clinical and preclinical research. Preventive clinical trials in premanifest HD with participants who have a medium or high probability of motor onset are calculated to be as resource-effective as those conducted in diagnosed HD and could interrupt disease 7–12years earlier. Methods and measures for preventive clinical trials in premanifest HD more than a dozen years from motor onset are also feasible. These findings represent the most thorough documentation of a clinical battery for experimental therapeutics in stages of premanifest HD, the time period for which effective intervention may provide the most positive possible outcome for patients and their families affected by this devastating disease

Multivariate prediction of motor diagnosis in Huntington's disease: 12 years of PREDICT-HD.

BackgroundIt is well known in Huntington's disease that cytosine-adenine-guanine expansion and age at study entry are predictive of the timing of motor diagnosis. The goal of this study was to assess whether additional motor, imaging, cognitive, functional, psychiatric, and demographic variables measured at study entry increased the ability to predict the risk of motor diagnosis over 12 years.MethodsOne thousand seventy-eight Huntington's disease gene-expanded carriers (64% female) from the Neurobiological Predictors of Huntington's Disease study were followed up for up to 12 y (mean = 5, standard deviation = 3.3) covering 2002 to 2014. No one had a motor diagnosis at study entry, but 225 (21%) carriers prospectively received a motor diagnosis. Analysis was performed with random survival forests, which is a machine learning method for right-censored data.ResultsAdding 34 variables along with cytosine-adenine-guanine and age substantially increased predictive accuracy relative to cytosine-adenine-guanine and age alone. Adding six of the common motor and cognitive variables (total motor score, diagnostic confidence level, Symbol Digit Modalities Test, three Stroop tests) resulted in lower predictive accuracy than the full set, but still had twice the 5-y predictive accuracy than when using cytosine-adenine-guanine and age alone. Additional analysis suggested interactions and nonlinear effects that were characterized in a post hoc Cox regression model.ConclusionsMeasurement of clinical variables can substantially increase the accuracy of predicting motor diagnosis over and above cytosine-adenine-guanine and age (and their interaction). Estimated probabilities can be used to characterize progression level and aid in future studies' sample selection

Multivariate prediction of motor diagnosis in Huntington's disease: 12 years of PREDICT-HD.

It is well known in Huntington's disease that cytosine-adenine-guanine expansion and age at study entry are predictive of the timing of motor diagnosis. The goal of this study was to assess whether additional motor, imaging, cognitive, functional, psychiatric, and demographic variables measured at study entry increased the ability to predict the risk of motor diagnosis over 12 years.One thousand seventy-eight Huntington's disease gene-expanded carriers (64% female) from the Neurobiological Predictors of Huntington's Disease study were followed up for up to 12 y (mean = 5, standard deviation = 3.3) covering 2002 to 2014. No one had a motor diagnosis at study entry, but 225 (21%) carriers prospectively received a motor diagnosis. Analysis was performed with random survival forests, which is a machine learning method for right-censored data.Adding 34 variables along with cytosine-adenine-guanine and age substantially increased predictive accuracy relative to cytosine-adenine-guanine and age alone. Adding six of the common motor and cognitive variables (total motor score, diagnostic confidence level, Symbol Digit Modalities Test, three Stroop tests) resulted in lower predictive accuracy than the full set, but still had twice the 5-y predictive accuracy than when using cytosine-adenine-guanine and age alone. Additional analysis suggested interactions and nonlinear effects that were characterized in a post hoc Cox regression model.Measurement of clinical variables can substantially increase the accuracy of predicting motor diagnosis over and above cytosine-adenine-guanine and age (and their interaction). Estimated probabilities can be used to characterize progression level and aid in future studies' sample selection