Supermeasured: Violating Bell-Statistical Independence without violating physical statistical independence

Bell’s theorem is often said to imply that quantum mechanics violates local causality, and that local causality cannot be restored with a hidden-variables theory. This however is only correct if the hidden-variables theory fulfils an assumption called Statistical Independence. Violations of Statistical Independence are commonly interpreted as correlations between the measurement settings and the hidden variables (which determine the measurement outcomes). Such correlations have been discarded as “fine-tuning” or a “conspiracy”. We here point out that the common interpretation is at best physically ambiguous and at worst incorrect. The problem with the common interpretation is that Statistical Independence might be violated because of a non-trivial measure in state space, a possibility we propose to call “supermeasured”. We use Invariant Set Theory as an example of a supermeasured theory that violates the Statistical Independence assumption in Bell’s theorem without requiring correlations between hidden variables and measurement settings (physical statistical independence)

Exploiting the chaotic behaviour of atmospheric models with reconfigurable architectures

Reconfigurable architectures are becoming mainstream: Amazon, Microsoft and IBM are supporting such architectures in their data centres. The computationally intensive nature of atmospheric modelling is an attractive target for hardware acceleration using reconfigurable computing. Performance of hardware designs can be improved through the use of reduced-precision arithmetic, but maintaining appropriate accuracy is essential. We explore reduced-precision optimisation for simulating chaotic systems, targeting atmospheric modelling, in which even minor changes in arithmetic behaviour will cause simulations to diverge quickly. The possibility of equally valid simulations having differing outcomes means that standard techniques for comparing numerical accuracy are inappropriate. We use the Hellinger distance to compare statistical behaviour between reduced-precision CPU implementations to guide reconfigurable designs of a chaotic system, then analyse accuracy, performance and power efficiency of the resulting implementations. Our results show that with only a limited loss in accuracy corresponding to less than 10% uncertainty in input parameters, the throughput and energy efficiency of a single-precision chaotic system implemented on a Xilinx Virtex-6 SX475T Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) can be more than doubled

Weather, climate and the nature of predictability

The prediction and simulation of future weather and climate is a key ingredient in good weather risk management. This chapter briefly reviews the nature and underlying sources of predictability on timescales from hours-ahead to centuries-ahead. The traditional distinction between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’ predictions is described, and the role of recent scientific developments in driving a convergence of these two classic problems is highlighted. The chapter concludes by outlining and comparing the two main strategies used for creating weather and climate predictions, and discussing the challenges of using predictions in quantitative applications

DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events

A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay‐coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay‐coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time step. Numerical experiments with a low‐order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an unoptimized formulation of the delay‐nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay‐coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures

Evolution of predator dispersal in relation to spatio-temporal prey dynamics : how not to get stuck in the wrong place!

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

How accurate is the phenotype? – An analysis of developmental noise in a cotton aphid clone

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The accuracy by which phenotype can be reproduced by genotype potentially is important in determining the stability, environmental sensitivity, and evolvability of morphology and other phenotypic traits. Because two sides of an individual represent independent development of the phenotype under identical genetic and environmental conditions, average body asymmetry (or "fluctuating asymmetry") can estimate the developmental instability of the population. The component of developmental instability not explained by intrapopulational differences in gene or environment (or their interaction) can be further defined as internal developmental noise. Surprisingly, developmental noise remains largely unexplored despite its potential influence on our interpretations of developmental stability, canalization, and evolvability. Proponents of fluctuating asymmetry as a bioindicator of environmental or genetic stress, often make the assumption that developmental noise is minimal and, therefore, that phenotype can respond sensitively to the environment. However, biologists still have not measured whether developmental noise actually comprises a significant fraction of the overall environmental response of fluctuating asymmetry observed within a population.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a morphometric study designed to partition developmental noise from fluctuating asymmetry in the wing morphology of a monoclonal culture of cotton aphid, <it>Aphis gossipyii</it>, it was discovered that fluctuating asymmetry in the aphid wing was nearly four times higher than in other insect species. Also, developmental noise comprised a surprisingly large fraction (≈ 50%) of the overall response of fluctuating asymmetry to a controlled graded temperature environment. Fluctuating asymmetry also correlated negatively with temperature, indicating that environmentally-stimulated changes in developmental instability are mediated mostly by changes in the development time of individuals.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The amount of developmental noise revealed in this trait potentially does interfere with a substantial amount of the sensitivity of fluctuating asymmetry to change in temperature. Assuming that some genetic-based variation in individual buffering of developmental instability exists in natural aphid populations, the amount of internal developmental noise determined in this study could also substantially reduce evolvability of the aphid wing. The overall findings here suggest that individual response to the seemingly high cost of stabilizing some aspects of the phenotype may account for the frequent observation of trait and species specificity in levels of fluctuating asymmetry.</p