Spatio-temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region

Recent and future changes in temperature and precipitation climate extremes are estimated using the Hadley Centre PRECIS ("Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies") climate model for the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region. The area of interest is considered vulnerable to extreme climate events as there is evidence for a temperature rise while precipitation tends to decline, suggesting likely effects on vital socioeconomic sectors in the region. Observations have been obtained for the recent period (1961–1990) and used to evaluate the model output. The spatial distribution of recent temporal trends in temperature indicates strong increasing in minimum temperature over the eastern Balkan Peninsula, Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula. The rate of warming reaches 0.4–0.5 °C decade⁻¹ in a large part of the domain, while warming is expected to be strongest in summer (0.6–0.7 °C decade⁻¹) in the eastern Balkans and western Turkey. The trends in annual and summer maximum temperature are estimated at approximately 0.5 and 0.6 °C decade⁻¹ respectively. Recent estimates do not indicate statistically significant trends in precipitation except for individual sub-regions. Results indicate a future warming trend for the study area over the last 30 years of the 21st century. Trends are estimated to be positive and statistically significant in nearly the entire region. The annual trend patterns for both minimum and maximum temperature show warming rates of approximately 0.4–0.6 °C decade⁻¹, with pronounced warming over the Middle Eastern countries. Summer temperatures reveal a gradual warming (0.5–0.9 °C decade⁻¹) over much of the region. The model projects drying trends by 5–30% in annual precipitation towards the end of the 21st century, with the number of wet days decreasing at the rate of 10–30 days year⁻¹, while heavy precipitation is likely to decrease in the high-elevation areas by 15 days year⁻¹

Effects of Meteorology Nudging in Regional Hydroclimatic Simulations of the Eastern Mediterranean

In this study, we investigated the effects of grid and spectral nudging in regional hydroclimatic simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean climate change hot-spot. We performed year-long simulations for the hydrological year October 2001\u2013September 2002 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12-km resolution, driven by the ERA-Interim reanalyses. Six grid and three spectral nudging options were tested using a number of model configurations. Due to the large uncertainty of regional observations, we compared the model with various satelliteand station-based meteorological datasets. The effect of nudging was tested for mean weather conditions and precipitation characteristics and extremes. For certain parts of the study domain, WRF was found to reproduce both aspects of rainfall over the Eastern Mediterranean reasonably well. Our findings highlighted that, for the WRF modeling system, nudging is critical for the simulation of rainfall; however, the application of interior constraint methods was found to have different impacts on various locations and climatic regimes. For the hyperarid parts of the domain, nudging did not improve the simulation of precipitation amounts (about 20% additional drying was introduced), while it added much value for the wetter rainfall regimes of the Eastern Mediterranean (corrections of about 30%). Improvements in the simulated precipitation were mostly introduced by spectral nudging; however, this option required significant computational resources. For these ERA-Interim-driven simulations, grid nudging that involves specific humidity within the planetary boundary layer is not recommended for the simulation of precipitation since it introduces dry biases up to 75\u201380%

Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change. The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the world Climate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean Virtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the world Climate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean Virtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected change

Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Observation-based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half-century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45 degrees C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land-use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.Peer reviewe

Revisiting the hemispheric asymmetry in mid-latitude ozone changes following the Mount Pinatubo eruption: A 3-D model study

Following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, satellite and in-situ measurements showed a large enhancement in stratospheric aerosol in both hemispheres, but significant mid-latitude column O3 depletion was observed only in the north. We use a three-dimensional chemical transport model to determine the mechanisms behind this hemispheric asymmetry. The model, forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalyses and updated aerosol surface area density, successfully simulates observed large column NO2 decreases and the different extents of ozone depletion in the two hemispheres. The chemical ozone loss is similar in the northern (NH) and southern hemispheres (SH), but the contrasting role of dynamics increases the depletion in the NH and decreases it in the SH. The relevant SH dynamics are not captured as well by earlier ERA-40 reanalyses. Overall the smaller SH column O3 depletion can be attributed to dynamical variability and smaller SH background lower stratosphere O3 concentrations

Reconciliation of halogen-induced ozone loss with the total-column ozone record

The observed depletion of the ozone layer from the 1980s onwards is attributed to halogen source gases emitted by human activities. However, the precision of this attribution is complicated by year-to-year variations in meteorology, that is, dynamical variability, and by changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations. As such, key aspects of the total-column ozone record, which combines changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, remain unexplained, such as the apparent absence of a decline in total-column ozone levels before 1980, and of any long-term decline in total-column ozone levels in the tropics. Here we use a chemistry–climate model to estimate changes in halogen-induced ozone loss between 1960 and 2010; the model is constrained by observed meteorology to remove the effects of dynamical variability, and driven by emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors to separate out changes in tropospheric ozone. We show that halogen-induced ozone loss closely followed stratospheric halogen loading over the studied period. Pronounced enhancements in ozone loss were apparent in both hemispheres following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and, in particular, Mount Pinatubo, which significantly enhanced stratospheric aerosol loads. We further show that approximately 40% of the long-term non-volcanic ozone loss occurred before 1980, and that long-term ozone loss also occurred in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, we show that halogen-induced ozone loss has declined by over 10% since stratospheric halogen loading peaked in the late 1990s, indicating that the recovery of the ozone layer is well underway

Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low-frequency variability which can look “trend-like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative-chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation) could have a first-order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry-climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self-consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change

BHPR research: qualitative1. Complex reasoning determines patients' perception of outcome following foot surgery in rheumatoid arhtritis

Background: Foot surgery is common in patients with RA but research into surgical outcomes is limited and conceptually flawed as current outcome measures lack face validity: to date no one has asked patients what is important to them. This study aimed to determine which factors are important to patients when evaluating the success of foot surgery in RA Methods: Semi structured interviews of RA patients who had undergone foot surgery were conducted and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis of interviews was conducted to explore issues that were important to patients. Results: 11 RA patients (9 ♂, mean age 59, dis dur = 22yrs, mean of 3 yrs post op) with mixed experiences of foot surgery were interviewed. Patients interpreted outcome in respect to a multitude of factors, frequently positive change in one aspect contrasted with negative opinions about another. Overall, four major themes emerged. Function: Functional ability & participation in valued activities were very important to patients. Walking ability was a key concern but patients interpreted levels of activity in light of other aspects of their disease, reflecting on change in functional ability more than overall level. Positive feelings of improved mobility were often moderated by negative self perception ("I mean, I still walk like a waddling duck”). Appearance: Appearance was important to almost all patients but perhaps the most complex theme of all. Physical appearance, foot shape, and footwear were closely interlinked, yet patients saw these as distinct separate concepts. Patients need to legitimize these feelings was clear and they frequently entered into a defensive repertoire ("it's not cosmetic surgery; it's something that's more important than that, you know?”). Clinician opinion: Surgeons' post operative evaluation of the procedure was very influential. The impact of this appraisal continued to affect patients' lasting impression irrespective of how the outcome compared to their initial goals ("when he'd done it ... he said that hasn't worked as good as he'd wanted to ... but the pain has gone”). Pain: Whilst pain was important to almost all patients, it appeared to be less important than the other themes. Pain was predominately raised when it influenced other themes, such as function; many still felt the need to legitimize their foot pain in order for health professionals to take it seriously ("in the end I went to my GP because it had happened a few times and I went to an orthopaedic surgeon who was quite dismissive of it, it was like what are you complaining about”). Conclusions: Patients interpret the outcome of foot surgery using a multitude of interrelated factors, particularly functional ability, appearance and surgeons' appraisal of the procedure. While pain was often noted, this appeared less important than other factors in the overall outcome of the surgery. Future research into foot surgery should incorporate the complexity of how patients determine their outcome Disclosure statement: All authors have declared no conflicts of interes

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in Africa, Europe and the Middle East: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This is the second in a series of three articles documenting the geographical distribution of 41 dominant vector species (DVS) of human malaria. The first paper addressed the DVS of the Americas and the third will consider those of the Asian Pacific Region. Here, the DVS of Africa, Europe and the Middle East are discussed. The continent of Africa experiences the bulk of the global malaria burden due in part to the presence of the <it>An. gambiae </it>complex. <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>is one of four DVS within the <it>An. gambiae </it>complex, the others being <it>An. arabiensis </it>and the coastal <it>An. merus </it>and <it>An. melas</it>. There are a further three, highly anthropophilic DVS in Africa, <it>An. funestus</it>, <it>An. moucheti </it>and <it>An. nili</it>. Conversely, across Europe and the Middle East, malaria transmission is low and frequently absent, despite the presence of six DVS. To help control malaria in Africa and the Middle East, or to identify the risk of its re-emergence in Europe, the contemporary distribution and bionomics of the relevant DVS are needed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A contemporary database of occurrence data, compiled from the formal literature and other relevant resources, resulted in the collation of information for seven DVS from 44 countries in Africa containing 4234 geo-referenced, independent sites. In Europe and the Middle East, six DVS were identified from 2784 geo-referenced sites across 49 countries. These occurrence data were combined with expert opinion ranges and a suite of environmental and climatic variables of relevance to anopheline ecology to produce predictive distribution maps using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) method.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The predicted geographic extent for the following DVS (or species/suspected species complex*) is provided for Africa: <it>Anopheles </it>(<it>Cellia</it>) <it>arabiensis</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>funestus*</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>gambiae</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>melas</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>merus</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>moucheti </it>and <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>nili*</it>, and in the European and Middle Eastern Region: <it>An. </it>(<it>Anopheles</it>) <it>atroparvus</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Ano.</it>) <it>labranchiae</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Ano.</it>) <it>messeae</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Ano.</it>) <it>sacharovi</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>sergentii </it>and <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>superpictus*</it>. These maps are presented alongside a bionomics summary for each species relevant to its control.</p