Global warming will affect the maximum potential abundance of boreal plant species

Forecasting the impact of future global warming on biodiversity requires understanding how temperature limits the distribution of species. Here we rely on Liebig's Law of Minimum to estimate the effect of temperature on the maximum potential abundance that a species can attain at a certain location. We develop 95%‐quantile regressions to model the influence of effective temperature sum on the maximum potential abundance of 25 common understory plant species of Finland, along 868 nationwide plots sampled in 1985. Fifteen of these species showed a significant response to temperature sum that was consistent in temperature‐only models and in all‐predictors models, which also included cumulative precipitation, soil texture, soil fertility, tree species and stand maturity as predictors. For species with significant and consistent responses to temperature, we forecasted potential shifts in abundance for the period 2041–2070 under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using temperature‐only models. We predict major potential changes in abundance and average northward distribution shifts of 6–8 km yr−1. Our results emphasize inter‐specific differences in the impact of global warming on the understory layer of boreal forests. Species in all functional groups from dwarf shrubs, herbs and grasses to bryophytes and lichens showed significant responses to temperature, while temperature did not limit the abundance of 10 species. We discuss the interest of modelling the ‘maximum potential abundance’ to deal with the uncertainty in the predictions of realized abundances associated to the effect of environmental factors not accounted for and to dispersal limitations of species, among others. We believe this concept has a promising and unexplored potential to forecast the impact of specific drivers of global change under future scenarios.202

Sosiaalisten vaikutusten arviointi voimajohtohankkeissa

Verkkoversion ISBN 951-33-1410-3, ISSN 1795-810

Erratum to: 36th International Symposium on Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s13054-016-1208-6.]

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

The value of scientific information on climate change: a choice experiment on Rokua esker, Finland

This article presents an application of the choice experiment method in order to provide estimates of economic values generated by water quantity improvements in the environment. More importantly, this is the first choice experiment study valuing scientific information and in particular scientific information on climate change. The case study of interest is Rokua in Northern Finland, a groundwater dependent ecosystem very sensitive to climate change and natural variability. The study deals with the uncertainty about the actual dynamics of the system and the effect of future climate change by exploring whether the public values sustained provision of resources for scientific research to better understand long-term environmental changes in Rokua. Data are analysed using a nested multinomial logit and an error component model. Evidence from this study suggests that individuals are willing to pay in order to assure scientific research so as to better understand long-term environmental changes. As a result, policy should consider investing in and supporting related research. Other aspects of water management policy valued by the public are water quantity, recreation, and total land income. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the European Union via the 7th Framework Program GENESIS: Groundwater and dependent ecosystems: New Scientific basis on climate change and land-use impact for the update of the EU Groundwater Directive; WP-6 Groundwater systems management: scenarios, risk assessment, cost-efficient measures and legal aspects. We finally thank two anonymous referees for constructive and insightful comments Koundouri, P.; Kougea, E.; Stithoua, M.; Ala-Ahob, P.; Eskelinenb, R.; Karjalainenc, T.; Klove, B.... (2012). The Value of Scientific Information on Climate Change: A Choice Experiment on Rokua esker, Finland. Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy. 1(1):85-102. doi:10.1080/21606544.2011.647450 Senia 85 102 1

Diabetes and heart failure associations in women and men: results from the MORGAM consortium

Background: Diabetes and its cardiovascular complications are a growing concern worldwide. Recently, some studies have demonstrated that relative risk of heart failure (HF) is higher in women with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) than in men. This study aims to validate these findings in cohorts representing five countries across Europe. Methods: This study includes 88,559 (51.8% women) participants, 3,281 (46.3% women) of whom had diabetes at baseline. Survival analysis was performed with the outcomes of interest being death and HF with a follow-up time of 12 years. Sub-group analysis according to sex and type of diabetes was also performed for the HF outcome. Results: 6,460 deaths were recorded, of which 567 were amongst those with diabetes. Additionally, HF was diagnosed in 2,772 individuals (446 with diabetes). A multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that there was an increased risk of death and HF (hazard ratio (HR) of 1.73 [1.58–1.89] and 2.12 [1.91–2.36], respectively) when comparing those with diabetes and those without. The HR for HF was 6.72 [2.75–16.41] for women with T1DM vs. 5.80 [2.72–12.37] for men with T1DM, but the interaction term for sex differences was insignificant (p for interaction 0.45). There was no significant difference in the relative risk of HF between men and women when both types of diabetes were combined (HR 2.22 [1.93–2.54] vs. 1.99 [1.67–2.38] respectively, p for interaction 0.80). Conclusion: Diabetes is associated with increased risks of death and heart failure, and there was no difference in relative risk according to sex

Radium-223 dichloride treatment in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer in Finland: A real-world evidence multicenter study

Background: Radium-233 dichloride is an alpha emitter that specifically targets bone metastases in prostate cancer. Results of a previously reported phase III randomized trial showed survival benefit for radium-223 compared to best supportive care in castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) with bone metastases. However, real-world data are also needed with wider inclusion criteria.Methods: We report results of a retrospective multicenter study including all patients with metastatic CRPC treated with radium-223 in all five university hospitals in Finland since the introduction of the treatment. We identified 160 patients who had received radium-223 in Finland in 2014-2019.Results: The median overall survival (OS) was 13.8 months (range 0.5-57 months), and the median real-world progression-free survival (rwPFS) was 4.9 months (range 0.5-29.8 months). Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values within the normal range before and during the radium-223 treatment or the reduction of elevated ALP to normal range during treatment were associated with better OS when compared to elevated ALP values before and during treatment (p Conclusion: Radium-223 was well tolerated in routine clinical practice, and most patients achieved pain relief. Pain relief, ALP normalization, lower baseline PSA, and PSA decrease during radium-223 treatment were prognostic for better survival. The efficacy of radium-223 in mCRPC as estimated using OS was comparable to earlier randomized trial in this retrospective real-world study. Our results support using radium-223 for mCRPC patients with symptomatic bone metastases even in the era of new-generation androgen receptor-targeted agents.</p