Persistence and Quiescence of Seismicity on Fault Systems

We study the statistics of simulated earthquakes in a quasistatic model of two parallel heterogeneous faults within a slowly driven elastic tectonic plate. The probability that one fault remains dormant while the other is active for a time Dt following the previous activity shift is proportional to the inverse of Dt to the power 1+x, a result that is robust in the presence of annealed noise and strength weakening. A mean field theory accounts for the observed dependence of the persistence exponent x as a function of heterogeneity and distance between faults. These results continue to hold if the number of competing faults is increased. This is related to the persistence phenomenon discovered in a large variety of systems, which specifies how long a relaxing dynamical system remains in a neighborhood of its initial configuration. Our persistence exponent is found to vary as a function of heterogeneity and distance between faults, thus defining a novel universality class.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, Revte

Aerosol-cloud interactions in mixed-phase convective clouds - Part 1: Aerosol perturbations

Changes induced by perturbed aerosol conditions in moderately deep mixed-phase convective clouds (cloud top height 5 km) developing along sea-breeze convergence lines are investigated with high-resolution numerical model simulations. The simulations utilise the newly developed Cloud-AeroSol Interacting Microphysics (CASIM) module for the Unified Model (UM), which allows for the representation of the two-way interaction between cloud and aerosol fields. Simulations are evaluated against observations collected during the COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) field campaign over the southwestern peninsula of the UK in 2013. The simulations compare favourably with observed thermodynamic profiles, cloud base cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC), cloud depth, and radar reflectivity statistics. Including the modification of aerosol fields by cloud microphysical processes improves the correspondence with observed CDNC values and spatial variability, but reduces the agreement with observations for average cloud size and cloud top height. Accumulated precipitation is suppressed for higher-aerosol conditions before clouds become organised along the sea-breeze convergence lines. Changes in precipitation are smaller in simulations with aerosol processing. The precipitation suppression is due to less efficient precipitation production by warm-phase microphysics, consistent with parcel model predictions. In contrast, after convective cells organise along the sea-breeze convergence zone, accumulated precipitation increases with aerosol concentrations. Condensate production increases with the aerosol concentrations due to higher vertical velocities in the convective cores and higher cloud top heights. However, for the highest-aerosol scenarios, no further increase in the condensate production occurs, as clouds grow into an upper-level stable layer. In these cases, the reduced precipitation efficiency (PE) dominates the precipitation response and no further precipitation enhancement occurs. Previous studies of deep convective clouds have related larger vertical velocities under high-aerosol conditions to enhanced latent heating from freezing. In the presented simulations changes in latent heating above the 0°C are negligible, but latent heating from condensation increases with aerosol concentrations. It is hypothesised that this increase is related to changes in the cloud field structure reducing the mixing of environmental air into the convective core. The precipitation response of the deeper mixed-phase clouds along well-established convergence lines can be the opposite of predictions from parcel models. This occurs when clouds interact with a pre-existing thermodynamic environment and cloud field structural changes occur that are not captured by simple parcel model approaches

Statistics of Earthquakes in Simple Models of Heterogeneous Faults

Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose properties yield power law scaling of earthquake statistics. Various dynamical effects can change the behavior to a distribution of small events combined with characteristic system size events. The studies employ various analytic methods as well as simulations.Comment: 4 pages, RevTex, 3 figures (eps-files), uses eps

Genetic association study of UCMA/GRP and OPTN genes (PDB6 locus) with Paget's disease of bone

We performed a genetic association study of rare variants and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of UCMA/GRP and OPTN genes, in French-Canadian patients with Paget's disease of bone (PDB) and in healthy controls from the same population. We reproduced the variant found in the UCMA/GRP basal promoter and tested its functionality using in vitro transient transfection assays. Interestingly, this SNP rs17152980 appears to affect the transcription level of UCMA/GRP. In addition, we have identified five rare genetic variants in UCMA/GRP gene, four of them being population-specific, although none were found to be associated with PDB. Six Tag SNPs of UCMA/GRP gene were associated with PDB, particularly the SNP rs17152980 (uncorrected P = 3.8 x 10(-3)), although not significant after Bonferroni's correction. More importantly, we replicated the strong and statistically significant genetic association of two SNPs of the OPTN gene, the rs1561570 (uncorrected P = 5.7 x 10(-7)) and the rs2095388 (uncorrected P = 4.9 x 10(-3)), With PDB. In addition, we identified a very rare variant found to be located close to the basal promoter of the OPTN gene, at -232 bp from its distal transcription start site. Furthermore, depending on the type of allele present (G or A), the binding of several important nuclear factors such as the vitamin D or the retinoic acid receptors is predicted to be altered at this position, suggesting a significant effect in the regulation of transcription of the OPTN gene. In conclusion, we identified a functional SNP located in the basal promoter of the UCMA/GRP gene which provided a weak genetic association with PDB. In addition, we replicated the strong genetic association of two already known SNPs of the OPTN gene, with PDB in a founder effect population. We also identified a very rare variant in the promoter of OPTN, and through bioinformatic analysis, identified putative transcription factor binding sites likely to affect OPTN gene transcription. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Fonds de la Recherche du Quebec - Sante (FRQS), Canada; Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation, Portugal [SFRH/BPD/48206/2008]; Catalyst Grant (Bone Health) from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (Canada); CHUQ Foundation (Canada); Groupe de Recherche en Maladies Osseuses (Canada); Canadian Foundation for Innovation (Canada); FRSQ (Canada); Laval University (Canada); CHUQ (CHUL) Research Centre (Canada); Centre of Marine Sciences (CCMAR) (Portugal)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Gutenberg Richter and Characteristic Earthquake Behavior in Simple Mean-Field Models of Heterogeneous Faults

The statistics of earthquakes in a heterogeneous fault zone is studied analytically and numerically in the mean field version of a model for a segmented fault system in a three-dimensional elastic solid. The studies focus on the interplay between the roles of disorder, dynamical effects, and driving mechanisms. A two-parameter phase diagram is found, spanned by the amplitude of dynamical weakening (or ``overshoot'') effects (epsilon) and the normal distance (L) of the driving forces from the fault. In general, small epsilon and small L are found to produce Gutenberg-Richter type power law statistics with an exponential cutoff, while large epsilon and large L lead to a distribution of small events combined with characteristic system-size events. In a certain parameter regime the behavior is bistable, with transitions back and forth from one phase to the other on time scales determined by the fault size and other model parameters. The implications for realistic earthquake statistics are discussed.Comment: 21 pages, RevTex, 6 figures (ps, eps

Aerosol–cloud interactions in mixed-phase convective clouds – Part 2: Meteorological ensemble

The relative contribution of variations in meteorological and aerosol initial and boundary conditions to the variability in modelled cloud properties is investigated with a high-resolution ensemble (30 members). In the investigated case, moderately deep convection develops along sea-breeze convergence zones over the southwestern peninsula of the UK. A detailed analysis of the mechanism of aerosol–cloud interactions in this case has been presented in the first part of this study (Miltenberger et al. 2018). The meteorological ensemble (10 members) varies by about a factor of 2 in boundary-layer moisture convergence, surface precipitation, and cloud fraction, while aerosol number concentrations are varied by a factor of 100 between the three considered aerosol scenarios. If ensemble members are paired according to the meteorological initial and boundary conditions, aerosol-induced changes are consistent across the ensemble. Aerosol-induced changes in CDNC (cloud droplet number concentration), cloud fraction, cell number and size, outgoing shortwave radiation (OSR), instantaneous and mean precipitation rates, and precipitation efficiency (PE) are statistically significant at the 5 % level, but changes in cloud top height or condensate gain are not. In contrast, if ensemble members are not paired according to meteorological conditions, aerosol-induced changes are statistically significant only for CDNC, cell number and size, outgoing shortwave radiation, and precipitation efficiency. The significance of aerosol-induced changes depends on the aerosol scenarios compared, i.e. an increase or decrease relative to the standard scenario. A simple statistical analysis of the results suggests that a large number of realisations (typically  > 100) of meteorological conditions within the uncertainty of a single day are required for retrieving robust aerosol signals in most cloud properties. Only for CDNC and shortwave radiation small samples are sufficient. While the results are strictly only valid for the investigated case, the presented evidence combined with previous studies highlights the necessity for careful consideration of intrinsic predictability, meteorological conditions, and co-variability between aerosol and meteorological conditions in observational or modelling studies on aerosol indirect effects

Static and Dynamic Properties of Inhomogeneous Elastic Media on Disordered Substrate

The pinning of an inhomogeneous elastic medium by a disordered substrate is studied analytically and numerically. The static and dynamic properties of a $D$-dimensional system are shown to be equivalent to those of the well known problem of a $D$-dimensional random manifold embedded in $(D+D)$-dimensions. The analogy is found to be very robust, applicable to a wide range of elastic media, including those which are amorphous or nearly-periodic, with local or nonlocal elasticity. Also demonstrated explicitly is the equivalence between the dynamic depinning transition obtained at a constant driving force, and the self-organized, near-critical behavior obtained by a (small) constant velocity drive.Comment: 20 pages, RevTeX. Related (p)reprints also available at http://matisse.ucsd.edu/~hwa/pub.htm

Secondary Ice Production : Current State of the Science and Recommendations for the Future

Measured ice crystal concentrations in natural clouds at modest supercooling (temperature ~>-10°C) are often orders of magnitude greater than the number concentration of primary ice nucleating particles. Therefore, it has long been proposed that a secondary ice production process must exist that is able to rapidly enhance the number concentration of the ice population following initial primary ice nucleation events. Secondary ice production is important for the prediction of ice crystal concentration and the subsequent evolution of some types of clouds, but the physical basis of the process is not understood and the production rates are not well constrained. In November 2015 an international workshop was held to discuss the current state of the science and future work to constrain and improve our understanding of secondary ice production processes. Examples and recommendations for in situ observations, remote sensing, laboratory investigations, and modeling approaches are presented.Peer reviewe

Gene expression differences in peripheral blood of Parkinson's disease patients with distinct progression profiles

The prognosis of neurodegenerative disorders is clinically challenging due to the inexistence of established biomarkers for predicting disease progression. Here, we performed an exploratory cross-sectional, case-control study aimed at determining whether gene expression differences in peripheral blood may be used as a signature of Parkinson's disease (PD) progression, thereby shedding light into potential molecular mechanisms underlying disease development. We compared transcriptional profiles in the blood from 34 PD patients who developed postural instability within ten years with those of 33 patients who did not develop postural instability within this time frame. Our study identified >200 differentially expressed genes between the two groups. The expression of several of the genes identified was previously found deregulated in animal models of PD and in PD patients. Relevant genes were selected for validation by real-time PCR in a subset of patients. The genes validated were linked to nucleic acid metabolism, mitochondria, immune response and intracellular-transport. Interestingly, we also found deregulation of these genes in a dopaminergic cell model of PD, a simple paradigm that can now be used to further dissect the role of these molecular players on dopaminergic cell loss. Altogether, our study provides preliminary evidence that expression changes in specific groups of genes and pathways, detected in peripheral blood samples, may be correlated with differential PD progression. Our exploratory study suggests that peripheral gene expression profiling may prove valuable for assisting in prediction of PD prognosis, and identifies novel culprits possibly involved in dopaminergic cell death. Given the exploratory nature of our study, further investigations using independent, well-characterized cohorts will be essential in order to validate our candidates as predictors of PD prognosis and to definitively confirm the value of gene expression analysis in aiding patient stratification and therapeutic intervention