Analysis of a rapid sea ice retreat event in the Bellingshausen Sea

The winter advance of the sea ice edge in the Bellingshausen Sea is frequently interrupted by periods of rapid retreat lasting a few days. The frequency and duration of such events strongly controls the location of the late winter sea ice edge in this sector of the Antarctic. We examine the dynamics and thermodynamics of a retreat event that occurred in May 2001 using data from a drifting buoy array together with diagnostics from a kinematic/thermodynamic ice growth model and a high-resolution (11 km) regional coupled ocean-ice model. During the retreat event, the ice edge retreated by 250 km over 13 days in response to strong and persistent northerly winds associated with a quasi-stationary low-pressure system. Ice motion in the outer part of the pack was convergent and correlated strongly with local wind forcing. By contrast, in the region closer to the coast, ice motion was less well correlated with wind forcing. Model diagnostics indicate that ice thickening resulting from convergence in the outer pack was largely balanced by basal melting. In the outer pack, ice was in a state close to free drift while, closer to the coast, internal ice stresses became significant. The ocean-ice model simulated the characteristics of the retreat event realistically, giving us confidence in the ability of such models to reproduce ice conditions in this sector

Effects of conversion of native cerrado vegetation to pasture on soil hydro-physical properties, evapotranspiration and streamflow on the Amazonian agricultural frontier

Understanding the impacts of land-use change on landscape-hydrological dynamics is one of the main challenges in the Northern Brazilian Cerrado biome, where the Amazon agricultural frontier is located. Motivated by the gap in literature assessing these impacts, we characterized the soil hydro-physical properties and quantified surface water fluxes from catchments under contrasting land-use in this region. We used data from field measurements in two headwater micro-catchments with similar physical characteristics and different land use, i.e. cerrado sensu stricto vegetation and pasture for extensive cattle ranching. We determined hydraulic and physical properties of the soils, applied ground-based remote sensing techniques to estimate evapotranspiration, and monitored streamflow from October 2012 to September 2014. Our results show significant differences in soil hydro-physical properties between the catchments, with greater bulk density and smaller total porosity in the pasture catchment. We found that evapotranspiration is smaller in the pasture (639 ± 31% mm yr-1) than in the cerrado catchment (1,004 ± 24% mm yr-1), and that streamflow from the pasture catchment is greater with runoff coefficients of 0.40 for the pasture and 0.27 for the cerrado catchment. Overall, our results confirm that conversion of cerrado vegetation to pasture causes soil hydro-physical properties deterioration, reduction in evapotranspiration reduction, and increased streamflow

Correction: Contribution of the Cpx envelope stress system to metabolism and virulence regulation in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211584.]

Exploring viscosity space in an eddy‐permitting global ocean model: Is viscosity a useful control for numerical mixing?

A generic shortcoming of constant-depth (or “z-coordinate”) ocean models such as MOM5 and Nucleus for European Models of the Ocean (NEMO) is a tendency for the advection scheme to produce unphysical numerical diapycnal mixing, which may exceed the explicitly parameterized mixing based on observed physical processes. Megann (2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.11.001) estimated the effective diapycnal diffusivity in the Global Ocean Version 5.0 (GO5.0) 0.25° global implementation of the NEMO model and showed that this was up to 10 times the explicit diffusivity used in the model's mixing scheme and argued that this was at least partly caused by large transient vertical velocities on length scales comparable to the horizontal grid scale. The current UK global NEMO configuration GO6, as used in the Global Coupled Model version 3.1 (GC3.1) and UK Earth System Model (UKESM1), is integrated in forced mode at 0.25° resolution with a range of viscosity parameterizations. In the present study, the effective diffusivity is evaluated for each integration and compared with the explicit value from the model mixing scheme, as well as with that in the control (using the default viscosity). It is shown that there is a strong correspondence between lower viscosity and enhanced numerical mixing and that larger viscosities lead to a marked reduction in the unrealistic internal temperature drift seen in the control configuration, without incurring excessive damping of the large-scale circulation, mixed layer depths, or sea ice cover. The results presented here will inform the choices made in global ocean configurations used in climate and Earth System models following the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)

A conceptual model of an Arctic sea

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 117 (2012): C06010, doi:10.1029/2011JC007652.We propose a conceptual model for an Arctic sea that is driven by river runoff, atmospheric fluxes, sea ice melt/growth, and winds. The model domain is divided into two areas, the interior and boundary regions, that are coupled through Ekman and eddy fluxes of buoyancy. The model is applied to Hudson and James Bays (HJB, a large inland basin in northeastern Canada) for the period 1979–2007. Several yearlong records from instruments moored within HJB show that the model results are consistent with the real system. The model notably reproduces the seasonal migration of the halocline, the baroclinic boundary current, spatial variability of freshwater content, and the fall maximum in freshwater export. The simulations clarify the important differences in the freshwater balance of the western and eastern sides of HJB. The significant role played by the boundary current in the freshwater budget of the system, and its sensitivity to the wind-forcing, are also highlighted by the simulations and new data analyses. We conclude that the model proposed is useful for the interpretation of observed data from Arctic seas and model outputs from more complex coupled/climate models.We thank NSERC and the Canada Research Chairs program for funding. FS acknowledges support from NSF OCE–0927797 and ONR N00014-08-10490.2012-12-2

Intensification of summer precipitation with shorter time-scales in Europe

While daily extreme precipitation intensities increase with global warming on average at approximately the same rate as the availability of water vapor (~7%/°C), a debated topic is whether sub-daily extremes increase more. Modelling at convection-permitting scales has been deemed necessary to reproduce extreme summer precipitation at local scale. Here we analyze multi-model ensembles and apply a 3 km horizontal resolution model over four regions across Europe (S. Norway, Denmark, Benelux and Albania) and find very good agreement with observed daily and hourly summer precipitation extremes. Projections show that daily extreme precipitation intensifies compared to the mean in all regions and across a wide range of models and resolutions. Hourly and 10 min extremes intensify at a higher rate in nearly all regions. Unlike most recent studies, we do not find sub-daily precipitation extremes increasing much more than 7%/°C, even for sub-hourly extremes, but this may be due to robust summer drying over large parts of Europe. However, the absolute strongest local daily precipitation event in a 20 year period will increase by 10%–20%/°C. At the same time, model projections strongly indicate that summer drying will be more pronounced for extremely dry years

What is the fate of the river waters of Hudson Bay?

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Systems 88 (2011): 352-361, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.02.004.We examine the freshwater balance of Hudson and James bays, two shallow and fresh seas that annually receive 12% of the pan- Arctic river runoff. The analyses use the results from a 3–D sea ice-ocean coupled model with realistic forcing for tides, rivers, ocean boundaries, precipitation, and winds. The model simulations show that the annual freshwater balance is essentially between the river input and a large outflow toward the Labrador shelf. River waters are seasonally exchanged from the nearshore region to the interior of the basin, and the volumes exchanged are substantial (of the same order of magnitude as the annual river input). This lateral exchange is mostly caused by Ekman transport, and its magnitude and variability are controlled by the curl of the stress at the surface of the basin. The average transit time of the river waters is 3.0 years, meaning that the outflow is a complex mixture of the runoff from the three preceding years.We thank NSERC and the Canada Research Chairs program for funding. FS acknowledges support from NSF OCE-0751554 and ONR N00014-08-10490

Migratory birds advance spring arrival and egg-laying in the Arctic, mostly by travelling faster

In the current warming climate, many organisms in seasonal environments advance their timing of reproduction to benefit from resource peaks earlier in spring. For migrants, the potential to advance reproduction may be constrained by their migration strategies, notably their ability to advance arrival at the breeding grounds. Recent studies show various changes in migration strategies, including wintering closer to the breeding grounds, earlier departure from the wintering grounds or faster travels by spending less time at stopover sites. However, whether such changes lead to earlier arrival or earlier breeding remains an open question. We studied changes in migration and reproduction timing in 12 populations of nine migratory birds, including seabirds, shorebirds, birds of prey and waterfowl breeding at Arctic sites bordering the Greenland and Barents Sea, a region undergoing rapid climate warming. The timing of migration and reproduction was derived from tracking and field data and analysed to study (1) how timing has changed in response to the changing moment of snowmelt at the breeding grounds and (2) what adjustments in migration strategies this involved. We found that in years with early snowmelt, egg-laying in multiple populations advanced, but only two waterfowl populations also advanced arrival in the Arctic. In contrast, arrival in the Arctic generally advanced with time, even when snowmelt or egg-laying dates did not advance. Earlier arrival with time was mostly explained by populations traveling to the Arctic faster, likely spending less time at stopover sites. Inability to forecast conditions in the Arctic may limit birds to adjust migration timing to annually varying snowmelt, but we show that several species, particularly waterfowl, are able to travel faster and advance the timing of migration over the years. The question remains whether this reflects adaptations to Arctic climate change or other factors, for example, environmental changes along the migratory route.</p

Should sea-ice modeling tools designed for climate research be used for short-term forecasting?

In theory, the same sea-ice models could be used for both research and operations, but in practice, differences in scientific and software requirements and computational and human resources complicate the matter. Although sea-ice modeling tools developed for climate studies and other research applications produce output of interest to operational forecast users, such as ice motion, convergence, and internal ice pressure, the relevant spatial and temporal scales may not be sufficiently resolved. For instance, sea-ice research codes are typically run with horizontal resolution of more than 3 km, while mariners need information on scales less than 300 m. Certain sea-ice processes and coupled feedbacks that are critical to simulating the Earth system may not be relevant on these scales; and therefore, the most important model upgrades for improving sea-ice predictions might be made in the atmosphere and ocean components of coupled models or in their coupling mechanisms, rather than in the sea-ice model itself. This paper discusses some of the challenges in applying sea-ice modeling tools developed for research purposes for operational forecasting on short time scales, and highlights promising new directions in sea-ice modeling