Victory or Repudiation? The Probability of the Southern Confederacy Winning the Civil War

Historians have long wondered whether the Southern Confederacy had a realistic chance at winning the American Civil War. We provide some quantitative evidence on this question by introducing a new methodology for estimating the probability of winning a civil war or revolution based on decisions in financial markets. Using a unique dataset of Confederate gold bonds in Amsterdam, we apply this methodology to estimate the probability of a Southern victory from the summer of 1863 until the end of the war. Our results suggest that European investors gave the Confederacy approximately a 42 percent chance of victory prior to the battle of Gettysburg/Vicksburg. News of the severity of the two rebel defeats led to a sell-off in Confederate bonds. By the end of 1863, the probability of a Southern victory fell to about 15 percent. Confederate victory prospects generally decreased for the remainder of the war. The analysis also suggests that McClellan's possible election as U.S. President on a peace party platform as well as Confederate military victories in 1864 did little to reverse the market's assessment that the South would probably lose the Civil War.

Subperiosteal ganglion cyst of the tibia : a communication with the knee demonstrated by delayed arthrography

We report a patient with a subperiosteal ganglion cyst of the tibia which was imaged by radiography, arthrography, CT and MRI. The images mere correlated with the arthroscopic surgical and histological findings. Spiculated formation of periosteal new bone on plain radiographs led to the initial suspicion of a malignant tumour. Demonstration of the cystic nature of the tumour using cross-sectional imaging was important for the precise diagnosis. Communication between the ganglion cyst and the knee was shown by a delayed arthrographic technique, and the presence of this communication was confirmed at arthroscopy and surgically

Morphological changes in 15 skeletal muscles of horses after 8 weeks of aquatraining

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New chemolysis for urological calcium phosphate calculi – a study in vitro

BACKGROUND: Advances in techniques have left very few indications for open surgical extraction of urinary stones currently. These advances notwithstanding, the search continues for medical approaches to urinary stone management. In this study, we perform an in vitro study analyzing the efficiency and prospect of two new complex solutions in urological calcium phosphate calculi dissolution. METHODS: Eighteen stones composed mainly of calcium phosphates were taken from patients who underwent kidney stone surgery. These stones were large enough (weight range 0.514–0.928 g) to be fragmented and matched equally into six groups. Chemolysis of phosphate stones was done with six different solvents and was repeated 3 times with 6 stones for each solution. At 24, 48 and 72 h, reduction in weight, percentage weight change, and dissolution rate; the dissolution rates at pH 5.0, 7.0 and 8.5 for each solution, using different cations (Na(+), K(+ )or Ca(2+)), according to different dilutions (1:1, 1:2, 1:3, 1:4) of S1 and S2 were simultaneously determined. RESULTS: Calcium phosphate calculi were poorly dissolved by Phys and Art, and they had a low dissolution rate in pH 8.5 EDTA. The most effective solutions were S1, S2 and R, with 72 h mean dissolution rates: 5.75 ± 0.44 mg/hr (S1), 5.2 ± 0.63 mg/hr (S2), 4.55 ± 0.46 mg/hr (R) ([Image: see text] ± s, p < 0.01 R, S1 and S2 vs Phys, Art and EDTA; p < 0.05, S1 vs R, LSD-test). The mean percentage weight loss at 72 h was: 52.1 ± 15.75 % (S1), 44.4 ± 7.37 % (S2) and 40.5 ± 3.67 % (R) ([Image: see text] ± s, p < 0.01 R, S1 and S2 vs Phys, Art and EDTA, LSD-test). Diluted twice, S1 and S2 had even better effectiveness than their initial solution. The additive of Na(+), K(+ )or Ca(2+ )greatly reduced the dissolution rates of S1, S2. CONCLUSION: Our data indicate that test solutions S1 and S2 are effective solvents in the chemolysis of calcium phosphate stones. At twice dilutions, these solutions are even more useful in the treatment of stone disease

Antimicrobial peptides of the Cecropin-family show potent antitumor activity against bladder cancer cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study evaluated the cytotoxic and antiproliferative efficacy of two well-characterized members of the Cecropin-family of antimicrobial peptides against bladder tumor cells and benign fibroblasts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The antiproliferative and cytotoxic potential of the Cecropins A and B was quantified by colorimetric WST-1-, BrdU- and LDH-assays in four bladder cancer cell lines as well as in murine and human fibroblast cell lines. IC₅₀values were assessed by logarithmic extrapolation, representing the concentration at which cell viability was reduced by 50%. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was performed to visualize the morphological changes induced by Cecropin A and B in bladder tumor cells and fibroblasts.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Cecropin A and B inhibit bladder cancer cell proliferation and viability in a dose-dependent fashion. The average IC₅₀values of Cecropin A and B against all bladder cancer cell lines ranged between 73.29 μg/ml and 220.05 μg/ml. In contrast, benign fibroblasts were significantly less or not at all susceptible to Cecropin A and B. Both Cecropins induced an increase in LDH release from bladder tumor cells whereas benign fibroblasts were not affected. SEM demonstrated lethal membrane disruption in bladder cancer cells as opposed to fibroblasts.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Cecropin A and B exert selective cytotoxic and antiproliferative efficacy in bladder cancer cells while sparing targets of benign murine or human fibroblast origin. Both peptides may offer novel therapeutic strategies for the treatment of bladder cancer with limited cytotoxic effects on benign cells.</p

Genetic analysis of multifocal superficial urothelial cancers by array-based comparative genomic hybridisation

The purpose of this study was to investigate the accumulation of genetic alterations during metachronous and/or synchronous development of multifocal low-grade superficial urothelial tumours in the same patient, by using array-based comparative genomic hybridisation (array-CGH) and FGFR mutation analysis. We analysed 24 tumours (pTa-1 G1-2) from five patients. We had previously identified a clonal relationship among the tumours of each patient by microsatellite analysis. This time, unsupervised hierarchical cluster analysis revealed that the tumours from each patient were clustered together independently of the tumours from the other patients. All of the tumours from a single patient showed a set of 2–7 identical regional or whole-arm chromosomal changes. In addition, several individual alterations were also found. Cladistic diagrams revealed that the accumulation of genetic alterations could not be explained by a linear model, and the existence of a hypothetical precursor cell was assumed in four patients. In some cases, FGFR mutation seemed to occur later during multifocal tumour development. Taken together, these findings suggest that low-grade superficial urothelial tumours accumulate minor genetic alterations during multifocal development, although these tumours are genetically stable

A Systematic Analysis on DNA Methylation and the Expression of Both mRNA and microRNA in Bladder Cancer

Background: DNA methylation aberration and microRNA (miRNA) deregulation have been observed in many types of cancers. A systematic study of methylome and transcriptome in bladder urothelial carcinoma has never been reported. Methodology/Principal Findings: The DNA methylation was profiled by modified methylation-specific digital karyotyping (MMSDK) and the expression of mRNAs and miRNAs was analyzed by digital gene expression (DGE) sequencing in tumors and matched normal adjacent tissues obtained from 9 bladder urothelial carcinoma patients. We found that a set of significantly enriched pathways disrupted in bladder urothelial carcinoma primarily related to "neurogenesis" and "cell differentiation" by integrated analysis of -omics data. Furthermore, we identified an intriguing collection of cancer-related genes that were deregulated at the levels of DNA methylation and mRNA expression, and we validated several of these genes (HIC1, SLIT2, RASAL1, and KRT17) by Bisulfite Sequencing PCR and Reverse Transcription qPCR in a panel of 33 bladder cancer samples. Conclusions/Significance: We characterized the profiles between methylome and transcriptome in bladder urothelial carcinoma, identified a set of significantly enriched key pathways, and screened four aberrantly methylated and expressed genes. Conclusively, our findings shed light on a new avenue for basic bladder cancer research

Designing the selenium and bladder cancer trial (SELEBLAT), a phase lll randomized chemoprevention study with selenium on recurrence of bladder cancer in Belgium

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Belgium, bladder cancer is the fifth most common cancer in males (5.2%) and the sixth most frequent cause of death from cancer in males (3.8%). Previous epidemiological studies have consistently reported that selenium concentrations were inversely associated with the risk of bladder cancer. This suggests that selenium may also be suitable for chemoprevention of recurrence.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>The SELEBLAT study opened in September 2009 and is still recruiting all patients with non-invasive transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder on TURB operation in 15 Belgian hospitals. Recruitment progress can be monitored live at <url>http://www.seleblat.org.</url> Patients are randomly assigned to selenium yeast (200 μg/day) supplementation for 3 years or matching placebo, in addition to standard care. The objective is to determine the effect of selenium on the recurrence of bladder cancer. Randomization is stratified by treatment centre. A computerized algorithm randomly assigns the patients to a treatment arm. All study personnel and participants are blinded to treatment assignment for the duration of the study.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>The SELEnium and BLAdder cancer Trial (SELEBLAT) is a phase III randomized, placebo-controlled, academic, double-blind superior trial.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This is the first report on a selenium randomized trial in bladder cancer patients.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00729287">NCT00729287</a></p

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Elective cancer surgery in COVID-19-free surgical pathways during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An international, multicenter, comparative cohort study

PURPOSE As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19–free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19–free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19–free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19–free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score–matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19–free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks