Influence of Hydrological Model Selection on Simulation of Moderate and Extreme Flow Events: A Case Study of the Blue Nile Basin

Five hydrological models were applied based on data from the Blue Nile Basin. Optimal parameters of each model were obtained by automatic calibration. Model performance was tested under both moderate and extreme flow conditions. Extreme events for the model performance evaluation were extracted based on seven criteria. Apart from graphical techniques, there were nine statistical “goodness-of-fit” metrics used to judge the model performance. It was found that whereas the influence of model selection may be minimal in the simulation of normal flow events, it can lead to large under- and/or overestimations of extreme events. Besides, the selection of the best model for extreme events may be influenced by the choice of the statistical “goodness-of-fit” measures as well as the criteria for extraction of high and low flows. It was noted that the use of overall water-balance-based objective function not only is suitable for moderate flow conditions but also influences the models to perform better for high flows than low flows. Thus, the choice of a particular model is recommended to be made on a case by case basis with respect to the objectives of the modeling as well as the results from evaluation of the intermodel differences

Trends and variability of temperature and evaporation over the African continent: Relationships with precipitation

This study analyzes changes in the long-term (1901-2015) monthly values of potential evapotranspiration (PET), precipitation, and minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures across Africa to quantify trends and assess covariability between these climatic variables. Both warming and drying trends were observed across the continent. The 1979-2015 warming was stronger than that from 1901 to 1940. Some cooling occurred from 1941 to the mid-1970s. The 1901-2015 annual Tmax, Tmin, and PET averaged over Africa exhibited increasing or drying trends across the continent at rates of 0.18 ºC, 0.22 ºC, and 3.5 mm per decade, respectively. The 1961-1990 annual precipitation averaged over the whole continent showed that Africa experienced drying at a rate of about –28 mm per decade. When considering the period 1961-2015, the rate of precipitation decrease was about –8 mm per decade. From 1901 to 1915, areas around Lake Victoria in East Africa and along the western coastline south of the equator experienced wetting rates of up to 36 mm per decade. Significant (p < 0.01) warming trends occurred in Sudan, Southern and Northern Africa. Positive PET trends were significant (p < 0.01) in the warm Mediterranean climate, and the western part of South Africa. Long-term temperature increase and precipitation decrease across northern Africa possibly indicated the Sahara Desert expansion over time. Except in the warm desert climate, the continent exhibited high precipitation variability. Equatorial climate experienced low temperature and PET variability. The strongest coherence between precipitation and temperature existed at multiple scales (6-8 years). Correlations between precipitation and PET (or temperature) were mostly negative and weak (p > 0.01). Because the sensitivity of Tmin to local influences is higher than that of Tmax, areas with strong negative correlation were larger in coverage for Tmax than those of Tmin. These results call for planned measures to tackle food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa

Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in East Africa considering CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6

Climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources in East Africa require proper planning of regional adaptation measures. Past studies on the subject matter tended to focus on catchment instead of regional scale. To support actionable policy regarding regional planning of water resources management, this paper reviewed studies conducted in East Africa based on CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6. Compared to the historical condition, temperature of East Africa over the mid- to late 21st century will increase by varying extents over the range 0.17–7°C with about 2.6°C on average. Future precipitation over East Africa will increase by 8.5% on average. Changes in discharge based on CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 will vary from −25.3 to +60.5%, −42.5 to 129%, and −23.4 to 69%, respectively. Ensemble means of the changes in discharge across the study area based on CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 will be by 25.2, 19.2, and 19.1%, respectively. Future peak river discharge across East Africa will increase by 8% on average. These results are important for planning regional climate change adaptation across East Africa. To support local or catchment adaptation, results of climate change impacts of temperature, precipitation and discharge of about 50 catchments across East Africa can be found summarized in this review paper. It is recommended that both regional and local policies or approaches should be considered for climate change adaptation to ensure a balanced, effective and sustainable framework for climate resilience in support of measures for tackling broad and specific needs cohesively

Pros and cons of various efficiency criteria for hydrological model performance evaluation

Confidence in hydrological predictions is linked to the model's performance in reproducing available observations. However, judgment of a model's quality is challenged by the differences which exist among the available efficiency criteria or objective functions. In this study, model outputs based on several objective functions were compared and found to differ with respect to various circumstances of variability, number of outliers, and model bias. Computational difficulty or speed of a model during calibration was shown to depend on the choice of the efficiency criterion. One source of uncertainty in hydrological modelling is the selection of a particular calibration method. However, this study showed that the choice of an objective function is another sub-source of calibration-related uncertainty. Thus, tackling the issue of uncertainties on model results should comprise combination of modelled series obtained based on (i) various objective functions separately applied to calibrate a model, (ii) different calibration methods, and (iii) several hydrological models. The pros and cons of many new and old efficiency criteria which can be found explored in this study highlight the need for modellers to understand the impact of various calibration-related sub-sources of uncertainties on model outputs.</p

The impact of the time series resolution on the reliability of the maximum precipitation models

In the paper, two maximum precipitation models for Legnica were developed. For this purpose archival pluviographic records from the time span 1961–2010 were used. The first model was developed on the basis of rainfall data of durations ranging from 5 minutes to 6 days. In the second model, rainfall data with durations ranging from 10 min to 6 days were used, and precipitation amounts for 5 minutes duration were extrapolated. Generalized exponential distribution was used to develop the models. Both models were compared with measurement data using relative residual mean square error

Negative emotions about climate change are related to insomnia symptoms and mental health : Cross-sectional evidence from 25 countries

Climate change threatens mental health via increasing exposure to the social and economic disruptions created by extreme weather and large-scale climatic events, as well as through the anxiety associated with recognising the existential threat posed by the climate crisis. Considering the growing levels of climate change awareness across the world, negative emotions like anxiety and worry about climate-related risks are a potentially pervasive conduit for the adverse impacts of climate change on mental health. In this study, we examined how negative climate-related emotions relate to sleep and mental health among a diverse non-representative sample of individuals recruited from 25 countries, as well as a Norwegian nationally-representative sample. Overall, we found that negative climate-related emotions are positively associated with insomnia symptoms and negatively related to self-rated mental health in most countries. Our findings suggest that climate-related psychological stressors are significantly linked with mental health in many countries and draw attention to the need for cross-disciplinary research aimed at achieving rigorous empirical assessments of the unique challenge posed to mental health by negative emotional responses to climate change.Peer reviewe

Climate anxiety, wellbeing and pro-environmental action: correlates of negative emotional responses to climate change in 32 countries

This study explored the correlates of climate anxiety in a diverse range of national contexts. We analysed cross-sectional data gathered in 32 countries (N = 12,246). Our results show that climate anxiety is positively related to rate of exposure to information about climate change impacts, the amount of attention people pay to climate change information, and perceived descriptive norms about emotional responding to climate change. Climate anxiety was also positively linked to pro-environmental behaviours and negatively linked to mental wellbeing. Notably, climate anxiety had a significant inverse association with mental wellbeing in 31 out of 32 countries. In contrast, it had a significant association with pro-environmental behaviour in 24 countries, and with environmental activism in 12 countries. Our findings highlight contextual boundaries to engagement in environmental action as an antidote to climate anxiety, and the broad international significance of considering negative climate-related emotions as a plausible threat to wellbeing.publishedVersio

Climate anxiety, wellbeing and pro-environmental action : correlates of negative emotional responses to climate change in 32 countries

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The AuthorsThis study explored the correlates of climate anxiety in a diverse range of national contexts. We analysed cross-sectional data gathered in 32 countries (N = 12,246). Our results show that climate anxiety is positively related to rate of exposure to information about climate change impacts, the amount of attention people pay to climate change information, and perceived descriptive norms about emotional responding to climate change. Climate anxiety was also positively linked to pro-environmental behaviours and negatively linked to mental wellbeing. Notably, climate anxiety had a significant inverse association with mental wellbeing in 31 out of 32 countries. In contrast, it had a significant association with pro-environmental behaviour in 24 countries, and with environmental activism in 12 countries. Our findings highlight contextual boundaries to engagement in environmental action as an antidote to climate anxiety, and the broad international significance of considering negative climate-related emotions as a plausible threat to wellbeing.Peer reviewe