Calibration of transition intensities for a multistate model: Application to long-term care

UID/MAT/00297/2020We consider a non-homogeneous continuous time Markov chain model for Long-Term Care with five states: the autonomous state, three dependent states of light, moderate and severe dependence levels and the death state. For a general approach, we allow for non null intensities for all the returns from higher dependence levels to all lesser dependencies in the multi-state model. Using data from the 2015 Portuguese National Network of Continuous Care database, as the main research contribution of this paper, we propose a method to calibrate transition intensities with the one step transition probabilities estimated from data. This allows us to use non-homogeneous continuous time Markov chains for modeling Long-Term Care. We solve numerically the Kolmogorov forward differential equations in order to obtain continuous time transition probabilities. We assess the quality of the calibration using the Portuguese life expectancies. Based on reasonable monthly costs for each dependence state we compute, by Monte Carlo simulation, trajectories of the Markov chain process and derive relevant information for model validation and premium calculation.publishersversionpublishe

Marine sponge and octocoral-associated bacteria show versatile secondary metabolite biosynthesis potential and antimicrobial activities against human pathogens

Marine microbiomes are prolific sources of bioactive natural products of potential pharmaceutical value. This study inspected two culture collections comprising 919 host-associated marine bacteria belonging to 55 genera and several thus-far unclassified lineages to identify isolates with potentially rich secondary metabolism and antimicrobial activities. Seventy representative isolates had their genomes mined for secondary metabolite biosynthetic gene clusters (SM-BGCs) and were screened for antimicrobial activities against four pathogenic bacteria and five pathogenic Candida strains. In total, 466 SM-BGCs were identified, with antimicrobial peptide- and polyketide synthase-related SM-BGCs being frequently detected. Only 38 SM-BGCs had similarities greater than 70% to SM-BGCs encoding known compounds, highlighting the potential biosynthetic novelty encoded by these genomes. Cross-streak assays showed that 33 of the 70 genome-sequenced isolates were active against at least one Candida species, while 44 isolates showed activity against at least one bacterial pathogen. Taxon-specific differences in antimicrobial activity among isolates suggested distinct molecules involved in antagonism against bacterial versus Candida pathogens. The here reported culture collections and genome-sequenced isolates constitute a valuable resource of understudied marine bacteria displaying antimicrobial activities and potential for the biosynthesis of novel secondary metabolites, holding promise for a future sustainable production of marine drug leads.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The spectral action and cosmic topology

The spectral action functional, considered as a model of gravity coupled to matter, provides, in its non-perturbative form, a slow-roll potential for inflation, whose form and corresponding slow-roll parameters can be sensitive to the underlying cosmic topology. We explicitly compute the non-perturbative spectral action for some of the main candidates for cosmic topologies, namely the quaternionic space, the Poincare' dodecahedral space, and the flat tori. We compute the corresponding slow-roll parameters and see we check that the resulting inflation model behaves in the same way as for a simply-connected spherical topology in the case of the quaternionic space and the Poincare' homology sphere, while it behaves differently in the case of the flat tori. We add an appendix with a discussion of the case of lens spaces.Comment: 55 pages, LaTe

Unrevealing the interactive effects of climate change and oil contamination on lab-simulated estuarine benthic communities

There is growing concern that modifications to the global environment such as ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation may interact with anthropogenic pollutants to adversely affect the future marine environment. Despite this, little is known about the nature of the potential risks posed by such interactions. Here, we performed a multifactorial microcosm experiment to assess the impact of ocean acidification, ultraviolet radiation B (UV-B) and oil hydrocarbon contamination on sediment chemistry, the microbial community (composition and function) and biochemical marker response of selected indicator species. We found that increased ocean acidification and oil contamination in the absence of UV-B will significantly alter bacterial composition by, among other changes, greatly reducing the relative abundance of Desulfobacterales, known to be important oil hydrocarbon degraders. Along with changes in bacterial composition, we identified concomitant shifts in the composition of aromatic hydrocarbons in the sediment and an increase in oxidative stress effects on our indicator species. Interestingly, our study identifies UV-B as a critical component in the interaction between these factors, since its presence alleviates harmful effects caused by the combination of reduced pH and oil pollution. The model system used here shows that the interactive effect of reduced pH and oil contamination can adversely affect the structure and functioning of sediment benthic communities, with the potential to exacerbate the toxicity of oil hydrocarbons in marine ecosystems

Predictors of cardiac involvement in idiopathic inflammatory myopathies

Copyright © 2023 Bandeira, Dourado, Melo, Martins, Fraga, Ferraro, Saraiva, Sousa, Parente, Soares, Correia, Almeida, Dinis, Pinto, Oliveira Pinheiro, Rato, Beirão, Samões, Santos, Mazeda, Chícharo, Faria, Neto, Lourenço, Brites, Rodrigues, Silva-Dinis, Dias, Araújo, Martins, Couto, Valido, Santos, Barreira, Fonseca and Campanilho-Marques. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.Objectives: Idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIM) are a group of rare disorders that can affect the heart. This work aimed to find predictors of cardiac involvement in IIM. Methods: Multicenter, open cohort study, including patients registered in the IIM module of the Rheumatic Diseases Portuguese Register (Reuma.pt/Myositis) until January 2022. Patients without cardiac involvement information were excluded. Myo(peri)carditis, dilated cardiomyopathy, conduction abnormalities, and/or premature coronary artery disease were considered. Results: 230 patients were included, 163 (70.9%) of whom were females. Thirteen patients (5.7%) had cardiac involvement. Compared with IIM patients without cardiac involvement, these patients had a lower bilateral manual muscle testing score (MMT) at the peak of muscle weakness [108.0 ± 55.0 vs 147.5 ± 22.0, p=0.008] and more frequently had oesophageal [6/12 (50.0%) vs 33/207 (15.9%), p=0.009] and lung [10/13 (76.9%) vs 68/216 (31.5%), p=0.001] involvements. Anti-SRP antibodies were more commonly identified in patients with cardiac involvement [3/11 (27.3%) vs 9/174 (5.2%), p=0.026]. In the multivariate analysis, positivity for anti-SRP antibodies (OR 104.3, 95% CI: 2.5-4277.8, p=0.014) was a predictor of cardiac involvement, regardless of sex, ethnicity, age at diagnosis, and lung involvement. Sensitivity analysis confirmed these results. Conclusion: Anti-SRP antibodies were predictors of cardiac involvement in our cohort of IIM patients, irrespective of demographical characteristics and lung involvement. We suggest considering frequent screening for heart involvement in anti-SRP-positive IIM patients.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Precipitation from persistent extremes is increasing in most regions and globally

Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual-maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0-45°N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments

Mitochondrial physiology

As the knowledge base and importance of mitochondrial physiology to evolution, health and disease expands, the necessity for harmonizing the terminology concerning mitochondrial respiratory states and rates has become increasingly apparent. The chemiosmotic theory establishes the mechanism of energy transformation and coupling in oxidative phosphorylation. The unifying concept of the protonmotive force provides the framework for developing a consistent theoretical foundation of mitochondrial physiology and bioenergetics. We follow the latest SI guidelines and those of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) on terminology in physical chemistry, extended by considerations of open systems and thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The concept-driven constructive terminology incorporates the meaning of each quantity and aligns concepts and symbols with the nomenclature of classical bioenergetics. We endeavour to provide a balanced view of mitochondrial respiratory control and a critical discussion on reporting data of mitochondrial respiration in terms of metabolic flows and fluxes. Uniform standards for evaluation of respiratory states and rates will ultimately contribute to reproducibility between laboratories and thus support the development of data repositories of mitochondrial respiratory function in species, tissues, and cells. Clarity of concept and consistency of nomenclature facilitate effective transdisciplinary communication, education, and ultimately further discovery

Mitochondrial physiology

As the knowledge base and importance of mitochondrial physiology to evolution, health and disease expands, the necessity for harmonizing the terminology concerning mitochondrial respiratory states and rates has become increasingly apparent. The chemiosmotic theory establishes the mechanism of energy transformation and coupling in oxidative phosphorylation. The unifying concept of the protonmotive force provides the framework for developing a consistent theoretical foundation of mitochondrial physiology and bioenergetics. We follow the latest SI guidelines and those of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) on terminology in physical chemistry, extended by considerations of open systems and thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The concept-driven constructive terminology incorporates the meaning of each quantity and aligns concepts and symbols with the nomenclature of classical bioenergetics. We endeavour to provide a balanced view of mitochondrial respiratory control and a critical discussion on reporting data of mitochondrial respiration in terms of metabolic flows and fluxes. Uniform standards for evaluation of respiratory states and rates will ultimately contribute to reproducibility between laboratories and thus support the development of data repositories of mitochondrial respiratory function in species, tissues, and cells. Clarity of concept and consistency of nomenclature facilitate effective transdisciplinary communication, education, and ultimately further discovery

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant