An atmospheric perspective on North American carbon dioxide exchange: CarbonTracker

We present an estimate of net CO2 exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere across North America for every week in the period 2000 through 2005. This estimate is derived from a set of 28,000 CO2 mole fraction observations in the global atmosphere that are fed into a state-of-the-art data assimilation system for CO2 called CarbonTracker. By design, the surface fluxes produced in CarbonTracker are consistent with the recent history of CO2 in the atmosphere and provide constraints on the net carbon flux independent from national inventories derived from accounting efforts. We find the North American terrestrial biosphere to have absorbed –0.65 PgC/yr (1 petagram = 10^15 g; negative signs are used for carbon sinks) averaged over the period studied, partly offsetting the estimated 1.85 PgC/yr release by fossil fuel burning and cement manufacturing. Uncertainty on this estimate is derived from a set of sensitivity experiments and places the sink within a range of –0.4 to –1.0 PgC/yr. The estimated sink is located mainly in the deciduous forests along the East Coast (32%) and the boreal coniferous forests (22%). Terrestrial uptake fell to –0.32 PgC/yr during the large-scale drought of 2002, suggesting sensitivity of the contemporary carbon sinks to climate extremes. CarbonTracker results are in excellent agreement with a wide collection of carbon inventories that form the basis of the first North American State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR), to be released in 2007. All CarbonTracker results are freely available at http://carbontracker.noaa.gov

Land use change and nitrogen feedbacks constrain the trajectory of the land carbon sink

Our understanding of Earth's carbon climate system depends critically upon interactions between rising atmospheric CO2, changing land use, and nitrogen limitation on vegetation growth. Using a global land model, we show how these factors interact locally to generate the global land carbon sink over the past 200 years. Nitrogen constraints were alleviated by N2 fixation in the tropics and by atmospheric nitrogen deposition in extratropical regions. Nonlinear interactions between land use change and land carbon and nitrogen cycling originated from three major mechanisms: (i) a sink foregone that would have occurred without land use conversion; (ii) an accelerated response of secondary vegetation to CO2 and nitrogen, and (iii) a compounded clearance loss from deforestation. Over time, these nonlinear effects have become increasingly important and reduce the present-day net carbon sink by ~40% or 0.4 PgC yr−1

Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection

Mitigating climate change requires directed innovation efforts to develop and deploy energy technologies. Innovation activities are directed towards the outcome of climate protection by public institutions, policies and resources that in turn shape market behaviour. We analyse diverse indicators of activity throughout the innovation system to assess these efforts. We find efficient end-use technologies contribute large potential emission reductions and provide higher social returns on investment than energy-supply technologies. Yet public institutions, policies and financial resources pervasively privilege energy-supply technologies. Directed innovation efforts are strikingly misaligned with the needs of an emissions-constrained world. Significantly greater effort is needed to develop the full potential of efficient end-use technologies

North American carbon dioxide sources and sinks: magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty

North America is both a source and sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Continental sources - such as fossil-fuel combustion in the US and deforestation in Mexico - and sinks - including most ecosystems, and particularly secondary forests - add and remove CO2 from the atmosphere, respectively. Photosynthesis converts CO2 into carbon as biomass, which is stored in vegetation, soils, and wood products. However, ecosystem sinks compensate for only similar to 35% of the continent's fossil-fuel-based CO2 emissions; North America therefore represents a net CO2 source. Estimating the magnitude of ecosystem sinks, even though the calculation is confounded by uncertainty as a result of individual inventory- and model-based alternatives, has improved through the use of a combined approach. Front Ecol Environ 2012; 10(10): 512-519, doi:10.1890/12006

Liana communities exhibit different species composition, diversity and community structure across forest types in the Congo Basin

Lianas are poorly characterized for central African forests. We quantify variation in liana composition, diversity and community structure in different forest types in the Yangambi Man and Biosphere Reserve, Democratic Republic of Congo. These attributes of liana assemblages were examined in 12 1-ha plots, randomly demarcated within regrowth forest, old growth monodominant forest, old growth mixed forest and old growth edge forest. Using a combination of multivariate and univariate community analyses, we visualize the patterns of these liana assemblage attributes and/or test for their significant differences across forest types. The combined 12 1-ha area contains 2,638 lianas (>= 2 cm diameter) representing 105 species, 49 genera and 22 families. Liana species composition differed significantly across forest types. Taxonomic diversity was higher in old growth mixed forests compared to old growth monodominant and regrowth forests. Trait diversity was higher than expected in the regrowth forest as opposed to the rest of forest types. Similarly, the regrowth forest differed from the rest of forest types in the pattern of liana species ecological traits and diameter frequency distribution. The regrowth forest was also less densely populated in lianas and had lower liana total basal area than the rest of forest types. We speculate that the mechanism of liana competitive exclusion by dominant tree species is mainly responsible for the lower liana species diversity in monodominant compared to mixed forests. We attribute variation in liana community structure between regrowth and old growth forests mostly to short development time of size hierarchies

Evolutionary Epidemiology of Drug-Resistance in Space

The spread of drug-resistant parasites erodes the efficacy of therapeutic treatments against many infectious diseases and is a major threat of the 21st century. The evolution of drug-resistance depends, among other things, on how the treatments are administered at the population level. “Resistance management” consists of finding optimal treatment strategies that both reduce the consequence of an infection at the individual host level, and limit the spread of drug-resistance in the pathogen population. Several studies have focused on the effect of mixing different treatments, or of alternating them in time. Here, we analyze another strategy, where the use of the drug varies spatially: there are places where no one receives any treatment. We find that such a spatial heterogeneity can totally prevent the rise of drug-resistance, provided that the size of treated patches is below a critical threshold. The range of parasite dispersal, the relative costs and benefits of being drug-resistant compared to being drug-sensitive, and the duration of an infection with drug-resistant parasites are the main factors determining the value of this threshold. Our analysis thus provides some general guidance regarding the optimal spatial use of drugs to prevent or limit the evolution of drug-resistance

An Approach to Enhance the Conservation-Compatibility of Solar Energy Development

The rapid pace of climate change poses a major threat to biodiversity. Utility-scale renewable energy development (>1 MW capacity) is a key strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but development of those facilities also can have adverse effects on biodiversity. Here, we examine the synergy between renewable energy generation goals and those for biodiversity conservation in the 13 M ha Mojave Desert of the southwestern USA. We integrated spatial data on biodiversity conservation value, solar energy potential, and land surface slope angle (a key determinant of development feasibility) and found there to be sufficient area to meet renewable energy goals without developing on lands of relatively high conservation value. Indeed, we found nearly 200,000 ha of lower conservation value land below the most restrictive slope angle (<1%); that area could meet the state of California’s current 33% renewable energy goal 1.8 times over. We found over 740,000 ha below the highest slope angle (<5%) – an area that can meet California’s renewable energy goal seven times over. Our analysis also suggests that the supply of high quality habitat on private land may be insufficient to mitigate impacts from future solar projects, so enhancing public land management may need to be considered among the options to offset such impacts. Using the approach presented here, planners could reduce development impacts on areas of higher conservation value, and so reduce trade-offs between converting to a green energy economy and conserving biodiversity

Quality of care assessment in geriatric evaluation and management units: construction of a chart review tool for a tracer condition

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The number of elderly people requiring hospital care is growing, so, quality and assessment of care for elders are emerging and complex areas of research. Very few validated and reliable instruments exist for the assessment of quality of acute care in this field. This study's objective was to create such a tool for Geriatric Evaluation and Management Units (GEMUs).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The methodology involved a reliability and feasibility study of a retrospective chart review on 934 older inpatients admitted in 49 GEMUs during the year 2002–2003 for fall-related trauma as a tracer condition. Pertinent indicators for a chart abstraction tool, the Geriatric Care Tool (GCT), were developed and validated according to five dimensions: access to care, comprehensiveness, continuity of care, patient-centred care and appropriateness. Consensus methods were used to develop the content. Participants were experts representing eight main health care professions involved in GEMUs from 19 different sites. Items associated with high quality of care at each step of the multidisciplinary management of patients admitted due to falls were identified. The GCT was tested for intra- and inter-rater reliability using 30 medical charts reviewed by each of three independent and blinded trained nurses. Kappa and agreement measures between pairs of chart reviewers were computed on an item-by-item basis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three quarters of 169 items identifying the process of care, from the case history to discharge planning, demonstrated good agreement (kappa greater than 0.40 and agreement over 70%). Indicators for the appropriateness of care showed less reliability.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Content validity and reliability results, as well as the feasibility of the process, suggest that the chart abstraction tool can gather standardized and pertinent clinical information for further evaluating quality of care in GEMU using admission due to falls as a tracer condition. However, the GCT should be evaluated in other models of acute geriatric units and new strategies should be developed to improve reliability of peer assessments in characterizing the quality of care for elderly patients with complex conditions.</p

Patterns and drivers of tree Mortality in Iberian Forests: climatic effects are modified by competition

Tree mortality is a key process underlying forest dynamics and community assembly. Understanding how tree mortality is driven by simultaneous drivers is needed to evaluate potential effects of climate change on forest composition. Using repeat-measure information fromc.400,000 trees from the Spanish Forest Inventory, we quantified the relative importance of tree size, competition, climate and edaphic conditions on tree mortality of 11 species, and explored the combined effect of climate and competition. Tree mortality was affected by all of these multiple drivers, especially tree size and asymmetric competition, and strong interactions between climate and competition were found. All species showed L-shaped mortality patterns (i.e. showed decreasing mortality with tree size), but pines were more sensitive to asymmetric competition than broadleaved species. Among climatic variables, the negative effect of temperature on tree mortality was much larger than the effect of precipitation. Moreover, the effect of climate (mean annual temperature and annual precipitation) on tree mortality was aggravated at high competition levels for all species, but especially for broadleaved species. The significant interaction between climate and competition on tree mortality indicated that global change in Mediterranean regions, causing hotter and drier conditions and denser stands, could lead to profound effects on forest structure and composition. Therefore, to evaluate the potential effects of climatic change on tree mortality, forest structure must be considered, since two systems of similar composition but different structure could radically differ in their response to climatic conditions