Global copper cycles and greenhouse gas emissions in a 1.5 °C world

Moving towards a 1.5 °C world could fundamentally alter the future copper cycle through two key drivers: the implementation of decarbonization technologies and the imposition of an emissions budget on production activities. This study explores the impact of these drivers on the global copper cycle using a dynamic material flow analysis, coupled with an optimization technique. The results show that global final demand for copper could increase by a factor of 2.5 between 2015 and 2050, reaching 62 million metric tons, with approximately 4% of the increase coming from copper used in renewable energy-based power plants and 14% coming from electric vehicles. While there are sufficient resources to meet this growing demand, the greenhouse gas emissions of the copper cycle could account for approximately 2.7% of the total emissions budget by 2050, up from 0.3% today. Assessment of possible mitigation efforts by the copper industry shows that this can be halved, but will still be 35% short of the emissions budget target based on proportional responsibility, i.e., applying the same mitigation rate to all sectors. Rather, collective action is required by all stakeholders interacting with the copper cycle to bridge the mitigation gap, including through efforts to drive advanced sorting, higher fabrication yields, extended product lifetimes, and increased service efficiency of in-use copper stock

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Molnupiravir versus placebo in unvaccinated and vaccinated patients with early SARS-CoV-2 infection in the UK (AGILE CST-2): a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2 trial

Background The antiviral drug molnupiravir was licensed for treating at-risk patients with COVID-19 on the basis of data from unvaccinated adults. We aimed to evaluate the safety and virological efficacy of molnupiravir in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with COVID-19. Methods This randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2 trial (AGILE CST-2) was done at five National Institute for Health and Care Research sites in the UK. Eligible participants were adult (aged ≥18 years) outpatients with PCR-confirmed, mild-to-moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection who were within 5 days of symptom onset. Using permuted blocks (block size 2 or 4) and stratifying by site, participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either molnupiravir (orally; 800 mg twice daily for 5 days) plus standard of care or matching placebo plus standard of care. The primary outcome was the time from randomisation to SARS-CoV-2 PCR negativity on nasopharyngeal swabs and was analysed by use of a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model for estimating the probability of a superior virological response (hazard ratio [HR]>1) for molnupiravir versus placebo. Our primary model used a two-point prior based on equal prior probabilities (50%) that the HR was 1·0 or 1·5. We defined a priori that if the probability of a HR of more than 1 was more than 80% molnupiravir would be recommended for further testing. The primary outcome was analysed in the intention-to-treat population and safety was analysed in the safety population, comprising participants who had received at least one dose of allocated treatment. This trial is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04746183, and the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN27106947, and is ongoing. Findings Between Nov 18, 2020, and March 16, 2022, 1723 patients were assessed for eligibility, of whom 180 were randomly assigned to receive either molnupiravir (n=90) or placebo (n=90) and were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. 103 (57%) of 180 participants were female and 77 (43%) were male and 90 (50%) participants had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. SARS-CoV-2 infections with the delta (B.1.617.2; 72 [40%] of 180), alpha (B.1.1.7; 37 [21%]), omicron (B.1.1.529; 38 [21%]), and EU1 (B.1.177; 28 [16%]) variants were represented. All 180 participants received at least one dose of treatment and four participants discontinued the study (one in the molnupiravir group and three in the placebo group). Participants in the molnupiravir group had a faster median time from randomisation to negative PCR (8 days [95% CI 8–9]) than participants in the placebo group (11 days [10–11]; HR 1·30, 95% credible interval 0·92–1·71; log-rank p=0·074). The probability of molnupiravir being superior to placebo (HR>1) was 75·4%, which was less than our threshold of 80%. 73 (81%) of 90 participants in the molnupiravir group and 68 (76%) of 90 participants in the placebo group had at least one adverse event by day 29. One participant in the molnupiravir group and three participants in the placebo group had an adverse event of a Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grade 3 or higher severity. No participants died (due to any cause) during the trial. Interpretation We found molnupiravir to be well tolerated and, although our predefined threshold was not reached, we observed some evidence that molnupiravir has antiviral activity in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals infected with a broad range of SARS-CoV-2 variants, although this evidence is not conclusive

Prospective observational cohort study of the association between antiplatelet therapy, bleeding and thrombosis in patients with coronary stents undergoing noncardiac surgery

Background: The perioperative management of antiplatelet therapy in noncardiac surgery patients who have undergone previous percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remains a dilemma. Continuing dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) may carry a risk of bleeding, while stopping antiplatelet therapy may increase the risk of perioperative major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Methods: Occurrence of Bleeding and Thrombosis during Antiplatelet Therapy In Non-Cardiac Surgery (OBTAIN) was an international prospective multicentre cohort study of perioperative antiplatelet treatment, MACE, and serious bleeding in noncardiac surgery. The incidences of MACE and bleeding were compared in patients receiving DAPT, monotherapy, and no antiplatelet therapy before surgery. Unadjusted risk ratios were calculated taking monotherapy as the baseline. The adjusted risks of bleeding and MACE were compared in patients receiving monotherapy and DAPT using propensity score matching. Results: A total of 917 patients were recruited and 847 were eligible for inclusion. Ninety-six patients received no antiplatelet therapy, 526 received monotherapy with aspirin, and 225 received DAPT. Thirty-two patients suffered MACE and 22 had bleeding. The unadjusted risk ratio for MACE in patients receiving DAPT compared with monotherapy was 1.9 (0.93–3.88), P=0.08. There was no difference in MACE between no antiplatelet treatment and monotherapy 1.03 (0.31–3.46), P=0.96. Bleeding was more frequent with DAPT 6.55 (2.3–17.96) P=0.0002. In a propensity matched analysis of 177 patients who received DAPT and 177 monotherapy patients, the risk ratio for MACE with DAPT was 1.83 (0.69–4.85), P=0.32. The risk of bleeding was significantly greater in the DAPT group 4.00 (1.15–13.93), P=0.031. Conclusions: OBTAIN showed an increased risk of bleeding with DAPT and found no evidence for protective effects of DAPT from perioperative MACE in patients who have undergone previous PCI