Multifidelity approaches for optimization under uncertainty

It is important to design robust and reliable systems by accounting for uncertainty and variability in the design process. However, performing optimization in this setting can be computationally expensive, requiring many evaluations of the numerical model to compute statistics of the system performance at every optimization iteration. This paper proposes a multifidelity approach to optimization under uncertainty that makes use of inexpensive, low-fidelity models to provide approximate information about the expensive, high-fidelity model. The multifidelity estimator is developed based on the control variate method to reduce the computational cost of achieving a specified mean square error in the statistic estimate. The method optimally allocates the computational load between the two models based on their relative evaluation cost and the strength of the correlation between them. This paper also develops an information reuse estimator that exploits the autocorrelation structure of the high-fidelity model in the design space to reduce the cost of repeatedly estimating statistics during the course of optimization. Finally, a combined estimator incorporates the features of both the multifidelity estimator and the information reuse estimator. The methods demonstrate 90% computational savings in an acoustic horn robust optimization example and practical design turnaround time in a robust wing optimization problem.United States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research. Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (Uncertainty Quantification Grant FA9550-09-0613

Antibody-mediated enhancement aggravates chikungunya virus infection and disease severity

The arthropod-transmitted chikungunya virus (CHIKV) causes a flu-like disease that is characterized by incapacitating arthralgia. The re-emergence of CHIKV and the continual risk of new epidemics have reignited research in CHIKV pathogenesis. Virus-specific antibodies have been shown to control virus clearance, but antibodies present at sub-neutralizing concentrations can also augment virus infection that exacerbates disease severity. To explore this occurrence, CHIKV infection was investigated in the presence of CHIKV-specific antibodies in both primary human cells and a murine macrophage cell line, RAW264.7. Enhanced attachment of CHIKV to the primary human monocytes and B cells was observed while increased viral replication was detected in RAW264.7 cells. Blocking of specific Fc receptors (FcγRs) led to the abrogation of these observations. Furthermore, experimental infection in adult mice showed that animals had higher viral RNA loads and endured more severe joint inflammation in the presence of sub-neutralizing concentrations of CHIKV-specific antibodies. In addition, CHIKV infection in 11 days old mice under enhancing condition resulted in higher muscles viral RNA load detected and death. These observations provide the first evidence of antibody-mediated enhancement in CHIKV infection and pathogenesis and could also be relevant for other important arboviruses such as Zika virus

The potential of optical proteomic technologies to individualize prognosis and guide rational treatment for cancer patients

Genomics and proteomics will improve outcome prediction in cancer and have great potential to help in the discovery of unknown mechanisms of metastasis, ripe for therapeutic exploitation. Current methods of prognosis estimation rely on clinical data, anatomical staging and histopathological features. It is hoped that translational genomic and proteomic research will discriminate more accurately than is possible at present between patients with a good prognosis and those who carry a high risk of recurrence. Rational treatments, targeted to the specific molecular pathways of an individual’s high-risk tumor, are at the core of tailored therapy. The aim of targeted oncology is to select the right patient for the right drug at precisely the right point in their cancer journey. Optical proteomics uses advanced optical imaging technologies to quantify the activity states of and associations between signaling proteins by measuring energy transfer between fluorophores attached to specific proteins. Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) and fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) assays are suitable for use in cell line models of cancer, fresh human tissues and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue (FFPE). In animal models, dynamic deep tissue FLIM/FRET imaging of cancer cells in vivo is now also feasible. Analysis of protein expression and post-translational modifications such as phosphorylation and ubiquitination can be performed in cell lines and are remarkably efficiently in cancer tissue samples using tissue microarrays (TMAs). FRET assays can be performed to quantify protein-protein interactions within FFPE tissue, far beyond the spatial resolution conventionally associated with light or confocal laser microscopy. Multivariate optical parameters can be correlated with disease relapse for individual patients. FRET-FLIM assays allow rapid screening of target modifiers using high content drug screens. Specific protein-protein interactions conferring a poor prognosis identified by high content tissue screening will be perturbed with targeted therapeutics. Future targeted drugs will be identified using high content/throughput drug screens that are based on multivariate proteomic assays. Response to therapy at a molecular level can be monitored using these assays while the patient receives treatment: utilizing re-biopsy tumor tissue samples in the neoadjuvant setting or by examining surrogate tissues. These technologies will prove to be both prognostic of risk for individuals when applied to tumor tissue at first diagnosis and predictive of response to specifically selected targeted anticancer drugs. Advanced optical assays have great potential to be translated into real-life benefit for cancer patients

Precise measurement of the W-boson mass with the CDF II detector

We have measured the W-boson mass MW using data corresponding to 2.2/fb of integrated luminosity collected in proton-antiproton collisions at 1.96 TeV with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. Samples consisting of 470126 W->enu candidates and 624708 W->munu candidates yield the measurement MW = 80387 +- 12 (stat) +- 15 (syst) = 80387 +- 19 MeV. This is the most precise measurement of the W-boson mass to date and significantly exceeds the precision of all previous measurements combined

Quantitative real-time imaging of intracellular FRET biosensor dynamics using rapid multi-beam confocal FLIM

Fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM) is a quantitative, intensity-independent microscopical method for measurement of diverse biochemical and physical properties in cell biology. It is a highly effective method for measurements of Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET), and for quantification of protein-protein interactions in cells. Time-domain FLIM-FRET measurements of these dynamic interactions are particularly challenging, since the technique requires excellent photon statistics to derive experimental parameters from the complex decay kinetics often observed from fluorophores in living cells. Here we present a new time-domain multi-confocal FLIM instrument with an array of 64 visible beamlets to achieve parallelised excitation and detection with average excitation powers of ~ 1–2 μW per beamlet. We exemplify this instrument with up to 0.5 frames per second time-lapse FLIM measurements of cAMP levels using an Epac-based fluorescent biosensor in live HeLa cells with nanometer spatial and picosecond temporal resolution. We demonstrate the use of time-dependent phasor plots to determine parameterisation for multi-exponential decay fitting to monitor the fractional contribution of the activated conformation of the biosensor. Our parallelised confocal approach avoids having to compromise on speed, noise, accuracy in lifetime measurements and provides powerful means to quantify biochemical dynamics in living cells

The Early Clinical Features of Dengue in Adults: Challenges for Early Clinical Diagnosis

Dengue infection in adults has become increasingly common throughout the world. As most of the clinical features of dengue have been described in children, we undertook a prospective study to determine the early symptoms and signs of dengue in adults. We show here that, overall, dengue cases presented with high rates of symptoms listed in the WHO 1997 or 2009 classification schemes for probable dengue fever thus resulting in high sensitivities of these schemes when applied for early diagnosis. However, symptoms such as myalgia, arthralgia, retro-orbital pain and mucosal bleeding were less frequently reported in older adults. This trend resulted in reduced sensitivity of the WHO classification schemes in older adults even though they showed increased risks of hospitalization and severe dengue. Instead, we suggest that older adults who present with fever and leukopenia should be tested for dengue, even in the absence of other symptoms. This could be useful for early clinical diagnosis in older adults so that they can be monitored and treated for severe dengue, which is especially important when an antiviral drug becomes available

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Novel Rodent Models for Macular Research

BACKGROUND: Many disabling human retinal disorders involve the central retina, particularly the macula. However, the commonly used rodent models in research, mouse and rat, do not possess a macula. The purpose of this study was to identify small laboratory rodents with a significant central region as potential new models for macular research. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Gerbillus perpallidus, Meriones unguiculatus and Phodopus campbelli, laboratory rodents less commonly used in retinal research, were subjected to confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (cSLO), fluorescein and indocyanine green angiography, and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) using standard equipment (Heidelberg Engineering HRA1 and Spectralis™) adapted to small rodent eyes. The existence of a visual streak-like pattern was assessed on the basis of vascular topography, retinal thickness, and the topography of retinal ganglion cells and cone photoreceptors. All three species examined showed evidence of a significant horizontal streak-like specialization. cSLO angiography and retinal wholemounts revealed that superficial retinal blood vessels typically ramify and narrow into a sparse capillary net at the border of the respective area located dorsal to the optic nerve. Similar to the macular region, there was an absence of larger blood vessels in the streak region. Furthermore, the thickness of the photoreceptor layer and the population density of neurons in the ganglion cell layer were markedly increased in the visual streak region. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The retinal specializations of Gerbillus perpallidus, Meriones unguiculatus and Phodopus campbelli resemble features of the primate macula. Hence, the rodents reported here may serve to study aspects of macular development and diseases like age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema, and the preclinical assessment of therapeutic strategies

E-Cadherin Acts as a Regulator of Transcripts Associated with a Wide Range of Cellular Processes in Mouse Embryonic Stem Cells

We have recently shown that expression of the cell adhesion molecule E-cadherin is required for LIF-dependent pluripotency of mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells.In this study, we have assessed global transcript expression in E-cadherin null (Ecad-/-) ES cells cultured in either the presence or absence of LIF and compared these to the parental cell line wtD3.We show that LIF has little effect on the transcript profile of Ecad-/- ES cells, with statistically significant transcript alterations observed only for Sp8 and Stat3. Comparison of Ecad-/- and wtD3 ES cells cultured in LIF demonstrated significant alterations in the transcript profile, with effects not only confined to cell adhesion and motility but also affecting, for example, primary metabolic processes, catabolism and genes associated with apoptosis. Ecad-/- ES cells share similar, although not identical, gene expression profiles to epiblast-derived pluripotent stem cells, suggesting that E-cadherin expression may inhibit inner cell mass to epiblast transition. We further show that Ecad-/- ES cells maintain a functional β-catenin pool that is able to induce β-catenin/TCF-mediated transactivation but, contrary to previous findings, do not display endogenous β-catenin/TCF-mediated transactivation. We conclude that loss of E-cadherin in mouse ES cells leads to significant transcript alterations independently of β-catenin/TCF transactivation

IL-1β, IL-6, and RANTES as Biomarkers of Chikungunya Severity

Little is known about the immunopathogenesis of Chikungunya virus. Circulating levels of immune mediators and growth factors were analyzed from patients infected during the first Singaporean Chikungunya fever outbreak in early 2008 to establish biomarkers associated with infection and/or disease severity.Adult patients with laboratory-confirmed Chikungunya fever infection, who were referred to the Communicable Disease Centre/Tan Tock Seng Hospital during the period from January to February 2008, were included in this retrospective study. Plasma fractions were analyzed using a multiplex-microbead immunoassay. Among the patients, the most common clinical features were fever (100%), arthralgia (90%), rash (50%) and conjunctivitis (40%). Profiles of 30 cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors were able to discriminate the clinical forms of Chikungunya from healthy controls, with patients classified as non-severe and severe disease. Levels of 8 plasma cytokines and 4 growth factors were significantly elevated. Statistical analysis showed that an increase in IL-1beta, IL-6 and a decrease in RANTES were associated with disease severity.This is the first comprehensive report on the production of cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors during acute Chikungunya virus infection. Using these biomarkers, we were able to distinguish between mild disease and more severe forms of Chikungunya fever, thus enabling the identification of patients with poor prognosis and monitoring of the disease