Indirect effects of primary prey population dynamics on alternative prey

We develop a theory of generalist predation showing how alternative prey species are affected by changes in both mean abundance and variability (coefficient of variation) of their predator's primary prey. The theory is motivated by the indirect effects of cyclic rodent populations on ground-breeding birds, and developed through progressive analytic simplifications of an empirically-based model. It applies nonetheless to many other systems where primary prey have fast life-histories and can become locally superabundant, which facilitates impact on alternative prey species. In contrast to classic apparent competition theory based on symmetric interactions, our results suggest that predator effects on alternative prey should generally decrease with mean primary prey abundance, and increase with primary prey variability (low to high CV) - unless predators have strong aggregative responses, in which case these results can be reversed. Approximations of models including predator dynamics (general numerical response with possible delays) confirm these results but further suggest that negative temporal correlation between predator and primary prey is harmful to alternative prey. We find in general that predator numerical responses are crucial to predict the response of ecosystems to changes in key prey species exhibiting outbreaks, and extend the apparent competition/mutualism theory to asymmetric interactions

Fish oil administration in older adults: is there potential for adverse events? A systematic review of the literature

ackground: Omega-3 (n-3) fatty acid supplementation is becoming increasingly popular. However given its antithrombotic properties the potential for severe adverse events (SAE) such as bleeding has safety implications, particularly in an older adult population. A systematic review of randomized control trials (RCT) was conducted to explore the potential for SAE and non-severe adverse events (non-SAE) associated with n-3 supplementation in older adults. Methods: A comprehensive search strategy using Medline and a variety of other electronic sources was conducted. Studies investigating the oral administration of n-3 fish oil containing eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) or both against a placebo were sourced. The primary outcome of interest included reported SAE associated with n-3 supplementation. Chi-square analyses were conducted on the pooled aggregate of AEs. Results: Of the 398 citations initially retrieved, a total of 10 studies involving 994 older adults aged ≥60 years were included in the review. Daily fish oil doses ranged from 0.03 g to 1.86 g EPA and/or DHA with study durations ranging from 6 to 52 weeks. No SAE were reported and there were no significant differences in the total AE rate between groups (n-3 intervention group: 53/540; 9.8%; placebo group: 28/454; 6.2%; p= 0.07). Non-SAE relating to gastrointestinal (GI) disturbances were the most commonly reported however there was no significant increase in the proportion of GI disturbances reported in participants randomized to the n-3 intervention (n-3 intervention group: 42/540 (7.8%); placebo group: 24/454 (5.3%); p= 0.18). Conclusions: The potential for AEs appear mild-moderate at worst and are unlikely to be of clinical significance. The use of n-3 fatty acids and the potential for SAE should however be further researched to investigate whether this evidence is consistent at higher doses and in other populations. These results also highlight that well-documented data outlining the potential for SAE following n-3 supplementation are limited nor adequately reported to draw definitive conclusions concerning the safety associated with n-3 supplementation. A more rigorous and systematic approach for monitoring and recording AE data in clinical settings that involve n-3 supplementation is required.The authors would like to acknowledge funding provided for the ongoing ATLANTIC randomized controlled trial supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia

The genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex

The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities, yet little is known about the specific genetic loci that influence human cortical structure. To identify genetic variants that affect cortical structure, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain magnetic resonance imaging data from 51,665 individuals. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 regions with known functional specializations. We identified 199 significant loci and found significant enrichment for loci influencing total surface area within regulatory elements that are active during prenatal cortical development, supporting the radial unit hypothesis. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes in Wnt signaling pathways, which influence progenitor expansion and areal identity. Variation in cortical structure is genetically correlated with cognitive function, Parkinson's disease, insomnia, depression, neuroticism, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Multi-species state-space modelling of the hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) in Scotland

State-space modelling is a powerful tool to study ecological systems. The direct inclusion of uncertainty, unification of models and data, and ability to model unobserved, hidden states increases our knowledge about the environment and provides new ecological insights. I extend the state-space framework to create multi-species models, showing that the ability to model ecosystem interactions is limited only by data availability. State-space models are fit using both Bayesian and Frequentist methods, making them independent of a statistical school of thought. Bayesian approaches can have the advantage in their ability to account for missing data and fit hierarchical structures and models with many parameters to limited data; often the case in ecological studies. I have taken a Bayesian model fitting approach in this thesis. The predator-prey interactions between the hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) are used to demonstrate state-space modelling’s capabilities. The harrier data are believed to be known without error, while missing data make the cyclic dynamics of the grouse harder to model. The grouse-harrier interactions are modelled in a multi-species state-space model, rather than including one species as a covariate in the other’s model. Finally, models are included for the harriers’ alternate prey. The single- and multi-species state-space models for the predator-prey interactions provide insight into the species’ management. The models investigate aspects of the species’ behaviour, from the mechanisms behind grouse cycles to what motivates harrier immigration. The inferences drawn from these models are applicable to management, suggesting actions to halt grouse cycles or mitigate the grouse-harrier conflict. Overall, the multi-species models suggest that two popular ideas for grouse-harrier management, diversionary feeding and habitat manipulation to reduce alternate prey densities, will not have the desired effect, and in the case of reducing prey densities, may even increase the harriers’ impact on grouse chicks.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo