A simulation study of the robustness of prediction intervals for an independent observation obtained from a random sample from an assumed location-scale family of distributions

Master of ScienceDepartment of StatisticsPaul I. NelsonSuppose that based on data consisting of independent repetitions of an experiment a researcher wants to predict the outcome of the next independent outcome of the experiment. The researcher models the data as being realizations of independent, identically distributed random variables { Xi, i=1,2,..n} having density f() and the next outcome as the value of an independent random variable Y , also having density f() . We assume that the density f() lies in one of three location-scale families: standard normal (symmetric); Cauchy (symmetric, heavy-tailed); extreme value (asymmetric.). The researcher does not know the values of the location and scale parameters. For f() = f0() lying in one of these families, an exact prediction interval for Y can be constructed using equivariant estimators of the location and scale parameters to form a pivotal quantity based on { Xi, i=1,2,..n} and Y. This report investigates via a simulation study the performance of these prediction intervals in terms of coverage rate and length when the assumption that f() = f0() is correct and when it is not. The simulation results indicate that prediction intervals based on the assumption of normality perform quite well with normal and extreme value data and reasonably well with Cauchy data when the sample sizes are large. The heavy tailed Cauchy assumption only leads to prediction intervals that perform well with Cauchy data and is not robust when the data are normal and extreme value. Similarly, the asymmetric extreme value model leads to prediction intervals that only perform well with extreme value data. Overall, this study indicates robustness with respect to a mismatch between the assumed and actual distributions in some cases and a lack of robustness in others

Verbal Component of Advertisement and the Problem of its Perception

The article touches upon the problem of impact the proper use of the language of advertising can have on people. Since today, advertisement has a significant impact on consumer choice of a customer. In the first part of this article we analyze such theoretical issues as stylistics of advertising text, its phonetic, syntactic and lexical aspects, means of language manipulation and readability index. Comparative analysis of linguistic peculiarities of the advertisement on the example of advertising texts of famous sport brands is shown in the second part. The main conclusion is that in spite of the fact that readability index of the text can be rather high, the level of its attractiveness to the public also depends on other factors that include non-verbal component of the message, personal characteristics of addressee, etc. The main idea of this article can be valuable for the world of psycholinguistics, lexicology and modern communication because it describes all the important linguistic peculiarities that can be used in the modern language of advertising

Verbal Component of Advertisement and the Problem of its Perception

The article touches upon the problem of impact the proper use of the language of advertising can have on people. Since today, advertisement has a significant impact on consumer choice of a customer. In the first part of this article we analyze such theoretical issues as stylistics of advertising text, its phonetic, syntactic and lexical aspects, means of language manipulation and readability index. Comparative analysis of linguistic peculiarities of the advertisement on the example of advertising texts of famous sport brands is shown in the second part. The main conclusion is that in spite of the fact that readability index of the text can be rather high, the level of its attractiveness to the public also depends on other factors that include non-verbal component of the message, personal characteristics of addressee, etc. The main idea of this article can be valuable for the world of psycholinguistics, lexicology and modern communication because it describes all the important linguistic peculiarities that can be used in the modern language of advertising

Airborne chemical pollution and children’s asthma incidence rate in Minsk

Introduction: Asthma, as a multifactorial disease is closely connected with air pollution. Discovering interconnection between concentrations of air pollutants and asthma incidence rate among children provides information for developing effective measures to reduce air pollution and improve population health. Study purpose was to carry out hygienic analysis of the influence of atmospheric air quality on the incidence rate of bronchial asthma and the asthmatic status of children in Minsk in 2009-2018. Methods: During 2019 retrospective health cohort study was conducted, data from stationary air quality monitoring posts were collected. Correlation analysis was conducted by determining the Pearson rank correlation coefficient. Results: Strong evidence was found for concentrations of particulate matter (dust / aerosol undifferentiated in composition), lead, ammonia and nitrogen dioxide making a significant contribution to the formation of elevated asthma and asthmatic status morbidity. The age group of risk are children under the age of 9 years (inclusive). Conclusions: Patterns obtained in this study are confirmed by the results of other studies (Wang et al. 2017; Orellano et al. 2017). Nevertheless, the main limitations in study are associated with the heterogeneity of the distribution of air quality monitoring posts and the changing list of controlled pollutants for the analyzed period

A randomised trial of oral versus intravenous opioids for treatment of pain after cardiac surgery

Background: Cardiac surgery and sternotomy are procedures accompanied by substantial postoperative pain which is challenging to treat. In general, intravenous (IV) opioids are used in the immediate postoperative phase, followed by oral opioids. Oral opioids are easier to use and generally less expensive. Our goal was thus to determine whether a new opioid preparation provides adequate analgesia after sternotomy. In particular, we tested the primary hypothesis that total opioid use (in morphine equivalents) is not greater with oral opioid compared with patient-controlled IV morphine. Our secondary hypothesis was that analgesic efficacy is similar with oral and IV opioids. Methods: A total of 51 patients having elective cardiac surgery were enrolled in this study. After rapid postoperative respiratory weaning, the patients were randomised into one of two groups receiving different types of analgesia: oral Targin (a combination of oxycodone-hydrochloride and the opioid antagonist naloxone hydrochloride-dihydrate) or patient-controlled IV morphine. Pain score (visual analogue scale), sedation (Ramsey score), respiratory rate and side effects were assessed at 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11h after surgery, and every 6h throughout the third postoperative evening. Results: The total opioid dose in morphine equivalent doses was significantly lower with oral opioid than with IV morphine (adjusted geometric means [95% confidence interval]: 34 [29; 38] vs. 69 [61; 78] mg, respectively). Pain scores were similar in each group. Conclusions: Analgesic quality was comparable with oral and IV opioids, suggesting that postoperative pain even after very painful procedures can be sufficiently managed with oral opioids

Combination of conservative and surgical methods in the treatment of giant lymphedema of the scrotum: A case report

ObjectiveGenital lymphedema is a severe, disabling condition associated with a malfunction of the lymphatic system. Primary lymphedema of the scrotum is a variant of congenital dysplasia of lymphatic vessels. Secondary genital lymphedema is much more common and can be caused by parasitic invasion (filariasis) or damage to the lymphatic system during the treatment of cancer (radiation therapy, lymphadenectomy). Healthcare providers are frequently unable to detect and treat this illness successfully in ordinary clinical practice. This paper uses the case of a patient with stage 3 secondary lymphedema (unknown genesis) of both lower extremities and lymphedema of the scrotum, complicated by recurrent erysipelas, a history of lymphorrhoea, impaired skin trophic and multiple papillomatosis, to demonstrate the efficacy of a combination of conservative and surgical methods in the treatment of giant lymphedema of the scrotum.MethodsIn the treatment, the combination of decongestant physical therapy (CDPT, CDT) according to M. Földi was used at pre-surgery and post-surgery stages, combined with a reconstructive operation, including the removal of the affected tissues of the urogenital region, phalloplasty, and scrotoplasty with rotational skin flaps.ResultsA decrease in the circumference of the lowest extremities in the lower leg area by 68 cm on the right and by 69 cm on the left was achieved by conservative treatment. Due to the combination of conservative and surgical treatment, the patient's body weight decreased by 69.4 kg, and the scrotum decreased by 63 cm. Subsequently, the patient fully recovered his sexual function.ConclusionA combination of complex decongestive physical therapy and surgery is necessary for patients with advanced genital edema. The isolated use of surgical or conservative treatment does not provide a sufficient improvement in the patient's quality of life. Modern plastic surgery technologies enable patients to achieve complete functional and cosmetic recovery, while proper selection and usage of compression hosiery help preserve and improve the outcomes acquired following treatment

Brachial Arterial Pressure Monitoring during Cardiac Surgery Rarely Causes Complications

BACKGROUND: Brachial arterial catheters better estimate aortic pressure than radial arterial catheters but are used infrequently because complications in a major artery without collateral flow are potentially serious. However, the extent to which brachial artery cannulation promotes complications remains unknown. The authors thus evaluated a large cohort of cardiac surgical patients to estimate the incidence of related serious complications. METHODS: The institutional Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Perioperative Health Documentation System Registry of the Cleveland Clinic were used to identify patients who had brachial artery cannulation between 2007 and 2015. Complications within 6 months after surgery were identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnostic and procedural codes, Current Procedural Terminology procedure codes, and Society of Thoracic Surgeons variables. The authors reviewed electronic medical records to confirm that putative complications were related plausibly to brachial arterial catheterization. Complications were categorized as (1) vascular, (2) peripheral nerve injury, or (3) infection. The authors evaluated associations between brachial arterial complications and patient comorbidities and between complications and in-hospital mortality and duration of hospitalization. RESULTS: Among 21,597 qualifying patients, 777 had vascular or nerve injuries or local infections, but only 41 (incidence 0.19% [95% CI, 0.14 to 0.26%]) were potentially consequent to brachial arterial cannulation. Vascular complications occurred in 33 patients (0.15% [0.10 to 0.23%]). Definitely or possibly related infection occurred in 8 (0.04% [0.02 to 0.08%]) patients. There were no plausibly related neurologic complications. Peripheral arterial disease was associated with increased risk of complications. Brachial catheter complications were associated with prolonged hospitalization and in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Brachial artery cannulation for hemodynamic monitoring during cardiac surgery rarely causes complications

Complete genome sequence of the extremely acidophilic methanotroph isolate V4, Methylacidiphilum infernorum, a representative of the bacterial phylum Verrucomicrobia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The phylum <it>Verrucomicrobia </it>is a widespread but poorly characterized bacterial clade. Although cultivation-independent approaches detect representatives of this phylum in a wide range of environments, including soils, seawater, hot springs and human gastrointestinal tract, only few have been isolated in pure culture. We have recently reported cultivation and initial characterization of an extremely acidophilic methanotrophic member of the <it>Verrucomicrobia</it>, strain V4, isolated from the Hell's Gate geothermal area in New Zealand. Similar organisms were independently isolated from geothermal systems in Italy and Russia.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We report the complete genome sequence of strain V4, the first one from a representative of the <it>Verrucomicrobia</it>. Isolate V4, initially named "<it>Methylokorus infernorum</it>" (and recently renamed <it>Methylacidiphilum infernorum</it>) is an autotrophic bacterium with a streamlined genome of ~2.3 Mbp that encodes simple signal transduction pathways and has a limited potential for regulation of gene expression. Central metabolism of <it>M. infernorum </it>was reconstructed almost completely and revealed highly interconnected pathways of autotrophic central metabolism and modifications of C₁-utilization pathways compared to other known methylotrophs. The <it>M. infernorum </it>genome does not encode tubulin, which was previously discovered in bacteria of the genus <it>Prosthecobacter</it>, or close homologs of any other signature eukaryotic proteins. Phylogenetic analysis of ribosomal proteins and RNA polymerase subunits unequivocally supports grouping <it>Planctomycetes</it>, <it>Verrucomicrobia </it>and <it>Chlamydiae </it>into a single clade, the PVC superphylum, despite dramatically different gene content in members of these three groups. Comparative-genomic analysis suggests that evolution of the <it>M. infernorum </it>lineage involved extensive horizontal gene exchange with a variety of bacteria. The genome of <it>M. infernorum </it>shows apparent adaptations for existence under extremely acidic conditions including a major upward shift in the isoelectric points of proteins.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of genome analysis of <it>M. infernorum </it>support the monophyly of the PVC superphylum. <it>M. infernorum </it>possesses a streamlined genome but seems to have acquired numerous genes including those for enzymes of methylotrophic pathways <it>via </it>horizontal gene transfer, in particular, from <it>Proteobacteria</it>.</p> <p>Reviewers</p> <p>This article was reviewed by John A. Fuerst, Ludmila Chistoserdova, and Radhey S. Gupta.</p

A unique isolated dwarf spheroidal galaxy at D=1.9 Mpc

We present a photometric and spectroscopic study of the unique isolated nearby dSph galaxy KKR25. The galaxy was resolved into stars with HST/WFPC2 including old red giant branch and red clump. We have constructed a model of the resolved stellar populations and measured the star formation rate and metallicity as function of time. The main star formation activity period occurred about 12.6 to 13.7 Gyr ago. These stars are mostly metal-poor, with a mean metallicity [Fe/H]\sim -1 to -1.6 dex. About 60 per cent of the total stellar mass was formed during this event. There are indications of intermediate age star formation in KKR25 between 1 and 4 Gyr with no significant signs of metal enrichment for these stars. Long-slit spectroscopy was carried out using the Russian 6-m telescope of the integrated starlight and bright individual objects in the galaxy. We have discovered a planetary nebula (PN) in KKR25. This is the first known PN in a dwarf spheroidal galaxy outside the Local Group. We have measured its oxygen abundance 12+log(O/H)=7.60+-0.07 dex and a radial velocity Vh=-79 km/s. We have analysed the stellar density distribution in the galaxy body. The galaxy has an exponential surface brightness profile with a central light depression. We discuss the evolutionary status of KKR25, which belongs to a rare class of very isolated dwarf galaxies with spheroidal morphology.Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. 11 figures, 7 table