Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union

ObjectivesThe primary aim of this study was to examine whether accuracy of rugby union match prediction outcomes differed dependent on the method of data analysis (i.e., isolated vs. descriptively converted or relative data). A secondary aim was to then use the most appropriate method to investigate the performance indicators (PI’s) most relevant to match outcome.MethodsData was 16 PI’s from 127 matches across the 2016–17 English Premiership rugby season. Given the binary outcome (win/lose), a random forest classification model was built using these data sets. Predictive ability of the models was further assessed by predicting outcomes from data sets of 72 matches across the 2017–18 season.ResultsThe relative data model attained a balanced prediction rate of 80% (95% CI – 75–85%) for 2016–17 data, whereas the isolated data model only achieved 64% (95% CI – 58–70%). In addition, the relative data model correctly predicted 76% (95% CI – 68–84%) of the 2017–18 data, compared with 70% (95% CI – 63–77%) for the isolated data model. From the relative data model, 10 PI’s had significant relationships with game outcome; kicks from hand, clean breaks, average carry distance, penalties conceded when the opposition have the ball, turnovers conceded, total metres carried, defenders beaten, ratio of tackles missed to tackles made, total missed tackles, and turnovers won.ConclusionsOutcomes of Premiership rugby matches are better predicted when relative data sets are utilised. Basic open-field abilities based around an effective kicking game, ball carrying abilities, and not conceding penalties when the opposition are in possession are the most relevant predictors of success

A proof of principle for using adaptive testing in routine Outcome Monitoring: the efficiency of the Mood and Anxiety Symptoms Questionnaire -Anhedonic Depression CAT

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Routine Outcome Monitoring (ROM) there is a high demand for short assessments. Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) is a promising method for efficient assessment. In this article, the efficiency of a CAT version of the Mood and Anxiety Symptom Questionnaire, - Anhedonic Depression scale (MASQ-AD) for use in ROM was scrutinized in a simulation study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The responses of a large sample of patients (<it>N </it>= 3,597) obtained through ROM were used. The psychometric evaluation showed that the items met the requirements for CAT. In the simulations, CATs with several measurement precision requirements were run on the item responses as if they had been collected adaptively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CATs employing only a small number of items gave results which, both in terms of depression measurement and criterion validity, were only marginally different from the results of a full MASQ-AD assessment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It was concluded that CAT improved the efficiency of the MASQ-AD questionnaire very much. The strengths and limitations of the application of CAT in ROM are discussed.</p

Leber Congenital Amaurosis Associated with AIPL1: Challenges in Ascribing Disease Causation, Clinical Findings, and Implications for Gene Therapy

Leber Congenital Amaurosis (LCA) and Early Childhood Onset Severe Retinal Dystrophy are clinically and genetically heterogeneous retinal disorders characterised by visual impairment and nystagmus from birth or early infancy. We investigated the prevalence of sequence variants in AIPL1 in a large cohort of such patients (n = 392) and probed the likelihood of disease-causation of the identified variants, subsequently undertaking a detailed assessment of the phenotype of patients with disease-causing mutations. Genomic DNA samples were screened for known variants in the AIPL1 gene using a microarray LCA chip, with 153 of these cases then being directly sequenced. The assessment of disease-causation of identified AIPL1 variants included segregation testing, assessing evolutionary conservation and in silico predictions of pathogenicity. The chip identified AIPL1 variants in 12 patients. Sequencing of AIPL1 in 153 patients and 96 controls found a total of 46 variants, with 29 being novel. In silico analysis suggested that only 6 of these variants are likely to be disease-causing, indicating a previously unrecognized high degree of polymorphism. Seven patients were identified with biallelic changes in AIPL1 likely to be disease-causing. In the youngest subject, electroretinography revealed reduced cone photoreceptor function, but rod responses were within normal limits, with no measurable ERG in other patients. An increasing degree and extent of peripheral retinal pigmentation and degree of maculopathy was noted with increasing age in our series. AIPL1 is significantly polymorphic in both controls and patients, thereby complicating the establishment of disease-causation of identified variants. Despite the associated phenotype being characterised by early-onset severe visual loss in our patient series, there was some evidence of a degree of retinal structural and functional preservation, which was most marked in the youngest patient in our cohort. This data suggests that there are patients who have a reasonable window of opportunity for gene therapy in childhood

A large genome-wide association study of age-related macular degeneration highlights contributions of rare and common variants.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ng.3448Advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly, with limited therapeutic options. Here we report on a study of >12 million variants, including 163,714 directly genotyped, mostly rare, protein-altering variants. Analyzing 16,144 patients and 17,832 controls, we identify 52 independently associated common and rare variants (P < 5 × 10(-8)) distributed across 34 loci. Although wet and dry AMD subtypes exhibit predominantly shared genetics, we identify the first genetic association signal specific to wet AMD, near MMP9 (difference P value = 4.1 × 10(-10)). Very rare coding variants (frequency <0.1%) in CFH, CFI and TIMP3 suggest causal roles for these genes, as does a splice variant in SLC16A8. Our results support the hypothesis that rare coding variants can pinpoint causal genes within known genetic loci and illustrate that applying the approach systematically to detect new loci requires extremely large sample sizes.We thank all participants of all the studies included for enabling this research by their participation in these studies. Computer resources for this project have been provided by the high-performance computing centers of the University of Michigan and the University of Regensburg. Group-specific acknowledgments can be found in the Supplementary Note. The Center for Inherited Diseases Research (CIDR) Program contract number is HHSN268201200008I. This and the main consortium work were predominantly funded by 1X01HG006934-01 to G.R.A. and R01 EY022310 to J.L.H

Rare and low-frequency coding variants alter human adult height

Height is a highly heritable, classic polygenic trait with ~700 common associated variants identified so far through genome - wide association studies . Here , we report 83 height - associated coding variants with lower minor allele frequenc ies ( range of 0.1 - 4.8% ) and effects of up to 2 16 cm /allele ( e.g. in IHH , STC2 , AR and CRISPLD2 ) , >10 times the average effect of common variants . In functional follow - up studies, rare height - increasing alleles of STC2 (+1 - 2 cm/allele) compromise d proteolytic inhibition of PAPP - A and increased cleavage of IGFBP - 4 in vitro , resulting in higher bioavailability of insulin - like growth factors . The se 83 height - associated variants overlap genes mutated in monogenic growth disorders and highlight new biological candidates ( e.g. ADAMTS3, IL11RA, NOX4 ) and pathways ( e.g . proteoglycan/ glycosaminoglycan synthesis ) involved in growth . Our results demonstrate that sufficiently large sample sizes can uncover rare and low - frequency variants of moderate to large effect associated with polygenic human phenotypes , and that these variants implicate relevant genes and pathways

Intravenous alteplase for stroke with unknown time of onset guided by advanced imaging: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

Background: Patients who have had a stroke with unknown time of onset have been previously excluded from thrombolysis. We aimed to establish whether intravenous alteplase is safe and effective in such patients when salvageable tissue has been identified with imaging biomarkers. Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data for trials published before Sept 21, 2020. Randomised trials of intravenous alteplase versus standard of care or placebo in adults with stroke with unknown time of onset with perfusion-diffusion MRI, perfusion CT, or MRI with diffusion weighted imaging-fluid attenuated inversion recovery (DWI-FLAIR) mismatch were eligible. The primary outcome was favourable functional outcome (score of 0–1 on the modified Rankin Scale [mRS]) at 90 days indicating no disability using an unconditional mixed-effect logistic-regression model fitted to estimate the treatment effect. Secondary outcomes were mRS shift towards a better functional outcome and independent outcome (mRS 0–2) at 90 days. Safety outcomes included death, severe disability or death (mRS score 4–6), and symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020166903. Findings: Of 249 identified abstracts, four trials met our eligibility criteria for inclusion: WAKE-UP, EXTEND, THAWS, and ECASS-4. The four trials provided individual patient data for 843 individuals, of whom 429 (51%) were assigned to alteplase and 414 (49%) to placebo or standard care. A favourable outcome occurred in 199 (47%) of 420 patients with alteplase and in 160 (39%) of 409 patients among controls (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·49 [95% CI 1·10–2·03]; p=0·011), with low heterogeneity across studies (I2=27%). Alteplase was associated with a significant shift towards better functional outcome (adjusted common OR 1·38 [95% CI 1·05–1·80]; p=0·019), and a higher odds of independent outcome (adjusted OR 1·50 [1·06–2·12]; p=0·022). In the alteplase group, 90 (21%) patients were severely disabled or died (mRS score 4–6), compared with 102 (25%) patients in the control group (adjusted OR 0·76 [0·52–1·11]; p=0·15). 27 (6%) patients died in the alteplase group and 14 (3%) patients died among controls (adjusted OR 2·06 [1·03–4·09]; p=0·040). The prevalence of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage was higher in the alteplase group than among controls (11 [3%] vs two [&lt;1%], adjusted OR 5·58 [1·22–25·50]; p=0·024). Interpretation: In patients who have had a stroke with unknown time of onset with a DWI-FLAIR or perfusion mismatch, intravenous alteplase resulted in better functional outcome at 90 days than placebo or standard care. A net benefit was observed for all functional outcomes despite an increased risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage. Although there were more deaths with alteplase than placebo, there were fewer cases of severe disability or death. Funding: None

The genetic epidemiology of joint shape and the development of osteoarthritis

Congruent, low-friction relative movement between the articulating elements of a synovial joint is an essential pre-requisite for sustained, efficient, function. Where disorders of joint formation or maintenance exist, mechanical overloading and osteoarthritis (OA) follow. The heritable component of OA accounts for ~ 50% of susceptible risk. Although almost 100 genetic risk loci for OA have now been identified, and the epidemiological relationship between joint development, joint shape and osteoarthritis is well established, we still have only a limited understanding of the contribution that genetic variation makes to joint shape and how this modulates OA risk. In this article, a brief overview of synovial joint development and its genetic regulation is followed by a review of current knowledge on the genetic epidemiology of established joint shape disorders and common shape variation. A summary of current genetic epidemiology of OA is also given, together with current evidence on the genetic overlap between shape variation and OA. Finally, the established genetic risk loci for both joint shape and osteoarthritis are discussed

Progress in gene therapy for neurological disorders

Diseases of the nervous system have devastating effects and are widely distributed among the population, being especially prevalent in the elderly. These diseases are often caused by inherited genetic mutations that result in abnormal nervous system development, neurodegeneration, or impaired neuronal function. Other causes of neurological diseases include genetic and epigenetic changes induced by environmental insults, injury, disease-related events or inflammatory processes. Standard medical and surgical practice has not proved effective in curing or treating these diseases, and appropriate pharmaceuticals do not exist or are insufficient to slow disease progression. Gene therapy is emerging as a powerful approach with potential to treat and even cure some of the most common diseases of the nervous system. Gene therapy for neurological diseases has been made possible through progress in understanding the underlying disease mechanisms, particularly those involving sensory neurons, and also by improvement of gene vector design, therapeutic gene selection, and methods of delivery. Progress in the field has renewed our optimism for gene therapy as a treatment modality that can be used by neurologists, ophthalmologists and neurosurgeons. In this Review, we describe the promising gene therapy strategies that have the potential to treat patients with neurological diseases and discuss prospects for future development of gene therapy