Urban fertility responses to local government programs : Evidence from the 1923-1932 US

BACKGROUND During the 1920s and early 1930s, U. S. fertility declined overall but with large regional variations. Changes in foreign born populations explain only part of this. Differences in public health and poverty relief programs may further help explain these declines because of their potential impact on fertility determinants, in particular on breastfeeding and child mortality. OBJECTIVE We investigate whether public health investments in child health (conservation of child life programs) and poverty relief (outdoor care of poor or charity for children and mothers) affected fertility for U. S. cities over 100,000 persons between 1923 and 1932. METHODS We analyze data covering 64 cities between 1923-1932 that include birth information from the U. S. Birth, Stillbirth and Infant Mortality Statistics volumes and city financial information from the Financial Statistics of Cities volumes. Time and city fixed-effects models are used to identify the impact of public investments on fertility. RESULTS Fixed effects estimates indicating the conservation of child life programs explain about 10 % of the fertility change between 1923 and 1932. Outdoor care of poor did not seem to be related to fertility. Investments in charity for children and mothers were associated with fertility increases, possibly because poorer areas experienced relative increases in both higher fertility and charitable spending. CONCLUSIONS Public spending on child health was strongly related to decreasing fertility in the U. S. during the 1920s, possibly because of increased breastfeeding and decreased child mortality. This leads to a better understanding of the 1920s fertility decline and highlights how public policy may affect fertility.Peer reviewe

Parental age and offspring mortality : Negative effects of reproductive ageing may be counterbalanced by secular increases in longevity

As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated with negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the potential benefits of being born at a later date. Secular declines in mortality mean that later birth cohorts are living longer. We analyse mortality over ages 30-74 among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born 1938-60, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time-invariant factors shared by the siblings. When incorporating cohort improvements in mortality, we find that those born to older mothers do not suffer any significant mortality disadvantage, and that those born to older fathers have lower mortality. These findings are likely to be explained by secular declines in mortality counterbalancing the negative effects of reproductive ageing.Peer reviewe

Reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality : A sibling comparison analysis using Swedish register data

A growing body of evidence suggests that reproductive history influences post-reproductive mortality. A potential explanation for this association is confounding by socioeconomic status in the family of origin, as socioeconomic status is related to both fertility behaviours and to long-term health. We examine the relationship between age at first birth, completed parity, and post-reproductive mortality and address the potential confounding role of family of origin. We use Swedish population register data for men and women born 1932-1960, and examine both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The contributions of our study are the use of a sibling comparison design that minimizes residual confounding from shared family background characteristics and assessment of cause-specific mortality that can shed light on the mechanisms linking reproductive history to mortality. Our results were entirely consistent with previous research on this topic, with teenage first time parents having higher mortality, and the relationship between parity and mortality following a U-shaped pattern where childless men and women and those with five or more children had the highest mortality. These results indicate that selection into specific fertility behaviours based upon socioeconomic status and experiences within the family of origin does not explain the relationship between reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality. Additional analyses where we adjust for other lifecourse factors such as educational attainment, attained socioeconomic status, and post-reproductive marital history do not change the results. Our results add an important new level of robustness to the findings on reproductive history and mortality by showing that the association is robust to confounding by factors shared by siblings. However it is still uncertain whether reproductive history causally influences health, or whether other confounding factors such as childhood health or risk-taking propensity could explain the association. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Antidepressant Sales and the Risk for Alcohol-Related and Non-Alcohol-Related Suicide in Finland-An Individual-Level Population Study

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The role of smoking on mortality compression : An analysis of Finnish occupational social classes, 1971-2010

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Using Administrative Data to Count Local Populations

There is growing evidence that official population statistics based on the decennial census are inaccurate at the local authority level—the fundamental administrative unit of the UK. This paper investigates the use of locally available administrative data sets for counting populations. The method uses truth tables for combining different data sources with different population coverage according to a defined and therefore replicable set of rules. The result is timelier and geographically more flexible data which is more cost-effective to produce than a survey-based census. Associated techniques for linking diverse data sources at individual and household level are briefly discussed. The methodology is then applied to administrative data from a London borough with about 170,000 people. The results are evaluated and compared with other population sources. The paper concludes by discussing potential improvements including scaling up the work to cover multiple local authorities. The practicalities of using alternative central government data sets are briefly considered. A sequel paper in this journal provides examples of key applications of this approach at local level

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system

A comparison of the provision of the My Choice Weight Management Programme via general practitioner practices and community pharmacies in the United Kingdom

This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of a novel, community-based weight management programme delivered through general practitioner (GP) practices and community pharmacies in one city in the United Kingdom. This study used a non-randomized, retrospective, observational comparison of clinical data collected by participating GP practices and community pharmacies. Subjects were 451 overweight or obese men and women resident in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation (82% from black and minority ethnic groups, 86% women, mean age: 41.1 years, mean body mass index [BMI]: 34.5 kg m−2). Weight, waist circumference and BMI at baseline, after 12 weeks and after 9 months were measured. Costs of delivery were also analysed. Sixty-four per cent of participants lost weight after the first 12 weeks of the My Choice Weight Management Programme. There was considerable dropout. Mean percentage weight loss (last observation carried forward) was 1.9% at 12 weeks and 1.9% at final follow-up (9 months). There was no significant difference in weight loss between participants attending GP practices and those attending pharmacies at both 12 weeks and at final follow-up. Costs per participant were higher via community pharmacy which was attributable to better attendance at sessions among community pharmacy participants than among GP participants. The My Choice Weight Management Programme produced modest reductions in weight at 12 weeks and 9 months. Such programmes may not be sufficient to tackle the obesity epidemic