Predicting microbial water quality with models: Over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments

The application of models to predict concentrations of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) in environmental systems plays an important role for guiding decision-making associated with the management of microbial water quality. In recent years there has been an increasing demand by policy-makers for models to help inform FIO dynamics in order to prioritise efforts for environmental and human-health protection. However, given the limited evidence-base on which FIO models are built relative to other agricultural pollutants (e.g. nutrients) it is imperative that the end-user expectations of FIO models are appropriately managed. In response, this commentary highlights four over-arching questions associated with: (i) model purpose; (ii) modelling approach; (iii) data availability; and (iv) model application, that must be considered as part of good practice prior to the deployment of any modelling approach to predict FIO behaviour in catchment systems. A series of short and longer-term research priorities are proposed in response to these questions in order to promote better model deployment in the field of catchment microbial dynamics

Evidence for an FU Orionis-like Outburst from a Classical T Tauri Star

We present pre- and post-outburst observations of the new FU Orionis-like young stellar object PTF 10qpf (also known as LkHa 188-G4 and HBC 722). Prior to this outburst, LkHa 188-G4 was classified as a classical T Tauri star on the basis of its optical emission-line spectrum superposed on a K8-type photosphere, and its photometric variability. The mid-infrared spectral index of LkHa 188-G4 indicates a Class II-type object. LkHa 188-G4 exhibited a steady rise by ~1 mag over ~11 months starting in Aug. 2009, before a subsequent more abrupt rise of > 3 mag on a time scale of ~2 months. Observations taken during the eruption exhibit the defining characteristics of FU Orionis variables: (i) an increase in brightness by > 4 mag, (ii) a bright optical/near-infrared reflection nebula appeared, (iii) optical spectra are consistent with a G supergiant and dominated by absorption lines, the only exception being Halpha which is characterized by a P Cygni profile, (iv) near-infrared spectra resemble those of late K--M giants/supergiants with enhanced absorption seen in the molecular bands of CO and H_2O, and (v) outflow signatures in H and He are seen in the form of blueshifted absorption profiles. LkHa 188-G4 is the first member of the FU Orionis-like class with a well-sampled optical to mid-infrared spectral energy distribution in the pre-outburst phase. The association of the PTF 10qpf outburst with the previously identified classical T Tauri star LkHa 188-G4 (HBC 722) provides strong evidence that FU Orionis-like eruptions represent periods of enhanced disk accretion and outflow, likely triggered by instabilities in the disk. The early identification of PTF 10qpf as an FU Orionis-like variable will enable detailed photometric and spectroscopic observations during its post-outburst evolution for comparison with other known outbursting objects.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, ApJ accepte

Characterizing the Cool KOIs. V. KOI-256: A Mutually Eclipsing Post-common Envelope Binary

We report that Kepler Object of Interest 256 (KOI-256) is a mutually eclipsing post-common envelope binary (ePCEB), consisting of a cool white dwarf (M_★ = 0.592 ± 0.089 M_☉, R_★ = 0.01345 ± 0.00091 R_☉, T_(eff) = 7100 ± 700 K) and an active M3 dwarf (M_★ = 0.51 ± 0.16 M_☉, R_★ = 0.540 ± 0.014 R_☉, T_(eff) = 3450 ± 50 K) with an orbital period of 1.37865 ± 0.00001 days. KOI-256 is listed as hosting a transiting planet-candidate by Borucki et al. and Batalha et al.; here we report that the planet-candidate transit signal is in fact the occultation of a white dwarf as it passes behind the M dwarf. We combine publicly-available long- and short-cadence Kepler light curves with ground-based measurements to robustly determine the system parameters. The occultation events are readily apparent in the Kepler light curve, as is spin-orbit synchronization of the M dwarf, and we detect the transit of the white dwarf in front of the M dwarf halfway between the occultation events. The size of the white dwarf with respect to the Einstein ring during transit (R_(Ein) = 0.00473 ± 0.00055 R ☉) causes the transit depth to be shallower than expected from pure geometry due to gravitational lensing. KOI-256 is an old, long-period ePCEB and serves as a benchmark object for studying the evolution of binary star systems as well as white dwarfs themselves, thanks largely to the availability of near-continuous, ultra-precise Kepler photometry

The PTF Orion Project: a Possible Planet Transiting a T-Tauri Star

We report observations of a possible young transiting planet orbiting a previously known weak-lined T-Tauri star in the 7-10 Myr old Orion-OB1a/25-Ori region. The candidate was found as part of the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) Orion project. It has a photometric transit period of 0.448413 +- 0.000040 days, and appears in both 2009 and 2010 PTF data. Follow-up low-precision radial velocity (RV) observations and adaptive optics imaging suggest that the star is not an eclipsing binary, and that it is unlikely that a background source is blended with the target and mimicking the observed transit. RV observations with the Hobby-Eberly and Keck telescopes yield an RV that has the same period as the photometric event, but is offset in phase from the transit center by approximately -0.22 periods. The amplitude (half range) of the RV variations is 2.4 km/s and is comparable with the expected RV amplitude that stellar spots could induce. The RV curve is likely dominated by stellar spot modulation and provides an upper limit to the projected companion mass of M_p sin i_orb < 4.8 +- 1.2 M_Jup; when combined with the orbital inclination, i orb, of the candidate planet from modeling of the transit light curve, we find an upper limit on the mass of the planetary candidate of M_p < 5.5 +- 1.4 M_Jup. This limit implies that the planet is orbiting close to, if not inside, its Roche limiting orbital radius, so that it may be undergoing active mass loss and evaporation.Comment: Corrected typos, minor clarifications; minor updates/corrections to affiliations and bibliography. 35 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables. Accepted to Ap

Evaluation and optimization of membrane feeding compared to direct feeding as an assay for infectivity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria parasite infectivity to mosquitoes has been measured in a variety of ways and setting, includind direct feeds of and/or membrane feeding blood collected from randomly selected or gametocytemic volunteers. <it>Anopheles gambiae s.l </it>is the main vector responsible of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>transmission in Bancoumana and represents about 90% of the laboratory findings, whereas <it>Plasmodium malariae </it>and <it>Plasmodium ovale </it>together represent only 10%.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>Between August 1996 and December 1998, direct and membrane feeding methods were compared for the infectivity of children and adolescent gametocyte carriers to anopheline mosquitoes in the village of Bancoumana in Mali. Gametocyte carriers were recruited twice a month through a screening of members of 30 families using Giemsa-stained thick blood smears. F1 generation mosquitoes issued from individual female wild mosquitoes from Bancoumana were reared in a controlled insectary conditions and fed 5% sugar solution in the laboratory in Bamako, until the feeding day when they are starved 12 hours before the feeding experiment. These F1 generation mosquitoes were divided in two groups, one group fed directly on gametocyte carriers and the other fed using membrane feeding method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results from 372 <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>gametocyte carriers showed that children aged 4–9 years were more infectious than adolescents (p = 0.039), especially during the rainy season. Data from 35 carriers showed that mosquitoes which were used for direct feeding were about 1.5 times more likely to feed (p < 0.001) and two times more likely to become infected, if they fed (p < 0.001), than were those which were used for membrane feeding. Overall, infectivity was about three-times higher for direct feeding than for membrane feeding (p < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although intensity of infectivity was lower for membrane feeding, it could be a surrogate to direct feeding for evaluating transmission-blocking activity of candidate malaria vaccines. An optimization of the method for future trials would involve using about three-times more mosquitoes than would be used for direct feeding.</p

Characterizing the cool kois. V. koi-256: A mutually eclipsing post-common envelope binary

We report that Kepler Object of Interest 256 (KOI-256) is a mutually eclipsing post-common envelope binary (ePCEB), consisting of a cool white dwarf (M* = 0.592 ± 0.089 M, R = 0.01345 ± 0.00091 R , T eff = 7100 ± 700 K) and an active M3 dwarf (M* = 0.51 ± 0.16 M , R* = 0.540 ± 0.014 R , T eff = 3450 ± 50 K) with an orbital period of 1.37865 ± 0.00001 days. KOI-256 is listed as hosting a transiting planet-candidate by Borucki et al. and Batalha et al.; here we report that the planet-candidate transit signal is in fact the occultation of a white dwarf as it passes behind the M dwarf. We combine publicly-available long- and short-cadence Kepler light curves with ground-based measurements to robustly determine the system parameters. The occultation events are readily apparent in the Kepler light curve, as is spin-orbit synchronization of the M dwarf, and we detect the transit of the white dwarf in front of the M dwarf halfway between the occultation events. The size of the white dwarf with respect to the Einstein ring during transit (R Ein = 0.00473 ± 0.00055 R ) causes the transit depth to be shallower than expected from pure geometry due to gravitational lensing. KOI-256 is an old, long-period ePCEB and serves as a benchmark object for studying the evolution of binary star systems as well as white dwarfs themselves, thanks largely to the availability of near-continuous, ultra-precise Kepler photometry. © 2013. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

Age-structured gametocyte allocation links immunity to epidemiology in malaria parasites

Background Despite a long history of attempts to model malaria epidemiology, the over-riding conclusion is that a detailed understanding of host-parasite interactions leading to immunity is required. It is still not known what governs the duration of an infection and how within-human parasite dynamics relate to malaria epidemiology. Presentation of the hypothesis Immunity to Plasmodium falciparum develops slowly and requires repeated exposure to the parasite, which thus generates age-structure in the host-parasite interaction. An age-structured degree of immunity would present the parasite with humans of highly variable quality. Evolutionary theory suggests that natural selection will mould adaptive phenotypes that are more precise (less variant) in "high quality" habitats, where lifetime reproductive success is best. Variability in malaria parasite gametocyte density is predicted to be less variable in those age groups who best infect mosquitoes. Thus, the extent to which variation in gametocyte density is a simple parasite phenotype reflecting the complex within-host parasite dynamics is addressed. Testing the hypothesis Gametocyte densities and corresponding infectiousness to mosquitoes from published data sets and studies in both rural and urban Cameroon are analysed. The mean and variation in gametocyte density according to age group are considered and compared with transmission success (proportion of mosquitoes infected). Across a wide range of settings endemic for malaria, the age group that infected most mosquitoes had the least variation in gametocyte density, i.e. there was a significant relationship between the variance rather than the mean gametocyte density and age-specific parasite transmission success. In these settings, the acquisition of immunity over time was evident as a decrease in asexual parasite densities with age. By contrast, in an urban setting, there were no such age-structured relationships either with variation in gametocyte density or asexual parasite density. Implications of the hypothesis Gametocyte production is seemingly predicted by evolutionary theory, insofar as a reproductive phenotype (gametocyte density) is most precisely expressed (i.e. is most invariant) in the most infectious human age group. This human age group would thus be expected to be the habitat most suitable for the parasite. Comprehension of the immuno-epidemiology of malaria, a requisite for any vaccine strategies, remains poor. Immunological characterization of the human population stratified by parasite gametocyte allocation would be a step forward in identifying the salient immunological pathways of what makes a human a good habitat

ICDP workshop on the Lake Tanganyika Scientific Drilling Project: a late Miocene–present record of climate, rifting, and ecosystem evolution from the world's oldest tropical lake

The Neogene and Quaternary are characterized by enormous changes in global climate and environments, including global cooling and the establishment of northern high-latitude glaciers. These changes reshaped global ecosystems, including the emergence of tropical dry forests and savannahs that are found in Africa today, which in turn may have influenced the evolution of humans and their ancestors. However, despite decades of research we lack long, continuous, well-resolved records of tropical climate, ecosystem changes, and surface processes necessary to understand their interactions and influences on evolutionary processes. Lake Tanganyika, Africa, contains the most continuous, long continental climate record from the mid-Miocene (∼10 Ma) to the present anywhere in the tropics and has long been recognized as a top-priority site for scientific drilling. The lake is surrounded by the Miombo woodlands, part of the largest dry tropical biome on Earth. Lake Tanganyika also harbors incredibly diverse endemic biota and an entirely unexplored deep microbial biosphere, and it provides textbook examples of rift segmentation, fault behavior, and associated surface processes. To evaluate the interdisciplinary scientific opportunities that an ICDP drilling program at Lake Tanganyika could offer, more than 70 scientists representing 12 countries and a variety of scientific disciplines met in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in June 2019. The team developed key research objectives in basin evolution, source-to-sink sedimentology, organismal evolution, geomicrobiology, paleoclimatology, paleolimnology, terrestrial paleoecology, paleoanthropology, and geochronology to be addressed through scientific drilling on Lake Tanganyika. They also identified drilling targets and strategies, logistical challenges, and education and capacity building programs to be carried out through the project. Participants concluded that a drilling program at Lake Tanganyika would produce the first continuous Miocene–present record from the tropics, transforming our understanding of global environmental change, the environmental context of human origins in Africa, and providing a detailed window into the dynamics, tempo and mode of biological diversification and adaptive radiations.© Author(s) 2020. This open access article is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License

Canagliflozin and Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Chronic Kidney Disease in Primary and Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention Groups

Background: Canagliflozin reduces the risk of kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, but effects on specific cardiovascular outcomes are uncertain, as are effects in people without previous cardiovascular disease (primary prevention). Methods: In CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation), 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo on a background of optimized standard of care. Results: Primary prevention participants (n=2181, 49.6%) were younger (61 versus 65 years), were more often female (37% versus 31%), and had shorter duration of diabetes mellitus (15 years versus 16 years) compared with secondary prevention participants (n=2220, 50.4%). Canagliflozin reduced the risk of major cardiovascular events overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.67-0.95]; P=0.01), with consistent reductions in both the primary (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.49-0.94]) and secondary (HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.69-1.06]) prevention groups (P for interaction=0.25). Effects were also similar for the components of the composite including cardiovascular death (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.61-1.00]), nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.59-1.10]), and nonfatal stroke (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.56-1.15]). The risk of the primary composite renal outcome and the composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure were also consistently reduced in both the primary and secondary prevention groups (P for interaction &gt;0.5 for each outcome). Conclusions: Canagliflozin significantly reduced major cardiovascular events and kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, including in participants who did not have previous cardiovascular disease