7 research outputs found
Poverty, Female Labour Force Participation, and Cottage Industry: A Case Study of Cloth Embroidery in Rural Multan
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- Field of study
It is a well-known fact that cottage industries can play a significant role in the development of an economy like Pakistan. As it is observed that this industry is not required too much financing, imported and highly sophisticated technology. So the problems like deficit in public finance and balance of payments is not related with the growth and development of these industries. Simultaneously, high degree of female labour force participation in this sector has also been proved in the number of studies. Which seems to be helpful in the process of reduction of poverty especially in the rural areas. The Southern Punjab especially its rural areas are comparatively less prosperous than the other parts of Punjab. A number of female workers can be seen in the rural areas of Southern Punjab. The concentration of these workers is in few traditional areas and is characterised by the low technology and low production levels. These areas are typically those, which require skills that are basically the extension of household skills or which reflect a specific educational and employment experience of women. It has also been observed that women’s income of the rural areas of Southern Punjab are more likely than their male partners to go towards meeting their family’s basic needs. These women spent most of their business income on the households, food, clothing and education of their children rather than reinvesting it in their business.
Poverty, Female Labour Force Participation, and Cottage Industry: A Case Study of Cloth Embroidery in Rural Multan
- Publication venue
- 'Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE)'
- Publication date
- 01/12/2001
- Field of study
It is a well-known fact that cottage industries can play a
significant role in the development of an economy like Pakistan. As it
is observed that this industry is not required too much financing,
imported and highly sophisticated technology. So the problems like
deficit in public finance and balance of payments is not related with
the growth and development of these industries. Simultaneously, high
degree of female labour force participation in this sector has also been
proved in the number of studies. Which seems to be helpful in the
process of reduction of poverty especially in the rural areas. The
Southern Punjab especially its rural areas are comparatively less
prosperous than the other parts of Punjab. A number of female workers
can be seen in the rural areas of Southern Punjab. The concentration of
these workers is in few traditional areas and is characterised by the
low technology and low production levels. These areas are typically
those, which require skills that are basically the extension of
household skills or which reflect a specific educational and employment
experience of women. It has also been observed that women’s income of
the rural areas of Southern Punjab are more likely than their male
partners to go towards meeting their family’s basic needs. These women
spent most of their business income on the households, food, clothing
and education of their children rather than reinvesting it in their
business
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Ababneh Hazim S
- Abate Yohannes Habtegiorgis
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbasgholizadeh Rouzbeh
- Abbasian Mohammadreza
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd Al Magied Abdallah H A
- Abd ElHafeez Samar
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdelkader Atef
- Abdelmasseh Michael
- Abdi Parsa
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdoun Meriem
- Abdullahi Auwal
- Abebe Mesfin
- Abiodun Olumide
- Aboagye Richard Gyan
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abouzid Mohamed
- Aboye Girma Beressa
- Abreu Lucas Guimarães
- Absalan Abdorrahim
- Abualruz Hasan
- Abubakar Bilyaminu
- Abukhadijah Hana Jihad Jihad
- Addolorato Giovanni
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adetunji Charles Oluwaseun
- Adetunji Juliana Bunmi
- Adeyeoluwa Temitayo Esther
- Adha Rishan
- Adhikary Ripon Kumar
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Adzigbli Leticia Akua
- Afrashteh Fatemeh
- Afzal Muhammad Sohail
- Afzal Saira
- Agbozo Faith
- Agodi Antonella
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agyemang-Duah Williams
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahlstrom Austin J
- Ahmad Aqeel
- Ahmad Firdos
- Ahmad Muayyad M
- Ahmad Sajjad
- Ahmad Shahzaib
- Ahmed Anisuddin
- Ahmed Ayman
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Safoora
- Ahmed Syed Anees
- Akinosoglou Karolina
- Akkaif Mohammed Ahmed
- Akrami Ashley E
- Akter Ema
- Al Awaidy Salah
- Al Hasan Syed Mahfuz
- Al Mosa Amjad S
- Al Ta'ani Omar
- Al Zaabi Omar Ali Mohammed
- Al-Ajlouni Yazan
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-amer Rasmieh Mustafa
- Al-Gheethi Adel Ali Saeed
- Al-Hanawi Mohammed Khaled
- Al-Ibraheem Akram
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M
- Al-Sabah Salman Khalifah
- Al-Tammemi Ala'a B.
- Al-Tawfiq Jaffar A
- Al-Wardat Mohammad Sami
- Al-Worafi Yaser Mohammed
- Al-Zyoud Walid
- Alahdab Fares
- Alajlani Muaaz M
- Alalalmeh Samer O
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Noore
- Alam Tahiya
- Alam Zufishan
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M
- Albakri Almaza
- Aldhaleei Wafa A
- Aldridge Robert W
- Alemohammad Seyedeh Yasaman
- Alemu Yihun Mulugeta
- Ali Abid
- Ali Amjad
- Ali Iman
- Ali Mohammed Usman
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- Alqutaibi Ahmed Yaseen
- Alrawashdeh Ahmad
- Alrousan Sahel Majed
- Alsabri Mohammed A
- Altaany Zaid
- Altirkawi Khalid A
- Aluh Deborah Oyine
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Aly Hany
- Alyahya Mohammad Sharif
- Alzoubi Karem H
- Amani Reza
- Ameyaw Edward Kwabena
- Amin Tarek Tawfik
- Amindarolzarbi Alireza
- Amiri Sohrab
- Amirzade-Iranaq Mohammad Hosein
- Amu Hubert
- Amugsi Dickson A
- Ancuceanu Robert
- Anderlini Deanna
- Anderson David B
- Andrade Pedro Prata
- Andrei Catalina Liliana
- Andrei Tudorel
- Andrews Erick Adrian
- Anil Abhishek
- Anil Sneha
- Anoushiravani Amir
- Antony Catherine M
- Antriyandarti Ernoiz
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- Anvari Saeid
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- Bensenor Isabela M
- Benzian Habib
- Beran Azizullah
- Berezvai Zombor
- Bernstein Robert S
- Bettencourt Paulo J G
- Beyene Kebede A
- Beyene Melak Gedamu
- Bhagat Devidas S
- Bhagavathula Akshaya Srikanth
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- Bhandari Dinesh
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- Wojewodzic Marcin W
- Woldeyes Dawit Habte
- Wolf Axel Walter
- Wolfe Charles D A
- Wu Chenkai
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- Wu Jiayuan
- Wu Zenghong
- Wulf Hanson Sarah
- Xiao Hong
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- Yadav Rakesh
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- Yazdani Nia Iman
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- Yesodharan Renjulal
- Yesuf Subah Abderehim
- Yezli Saber
- Yigzaw Zeamanuel Anteneh
- Yiğit Arzu
- Yiğit Vahit
- Yin Dehui
- Yip Paul
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- You Yuyi
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yu Elaine A
- Yu Yong
- Yuan Chun-Wei
- Yusuf Hadiza
- Zafar Uzma
- Zafari Nima
- Zahid Mondal Hasan
- Zakham Fathiah
- Zaki Nazar
- Zerfu Taddese Alemu
- Zhang Haijun
- Zhang Jingya
- Zhang Liqun
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhiqiang
- Zhao Xiu-Ju George
- Zhao Yang
- Zhao Zhongyi
- Zhong Chenwen
- Zhou Bolun
- Zhou Juexiao
- Zhou Shangcheng
- Zhu Bin
- Zhumagaliuly Abzal
- Zielińska Magdalena
- Zoghi Ghazal
- Zumla Alimuddin
- Zyoud Sa'ed H
- Zyoud Samer H
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2024
- Field of study
Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions
Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries
- Author
- Abad-Motos Ane
- Abbas Ahmed M.
- Abbas Mostafa
- Abbasi Mujeeb
- Abbott Tom
- Abd Karim Muhammad Fairuz Shah
- Abdalaal Ibrahim
- Abdel-Galil Khalid
- Abdelemam Rania
- Abdelgawad Abdalrahman
- Abdelkarim Maryam
- Abdelkhalek Mohamed
- Abdelmageed Abdelfatah
- Abdelmawgoud Sherif
- Abdelmohsen Sarah
- Abdelrahman Ahmed Saber
- Abdelrahman Mostafa
- Abdelwahab Khaled
- Abdou Hossam
- Abdulai Darling Ramatu
- Abdulkhaleq Marwa
- Abdullah Bahiyah
- Abdulsalam Khalifa
- Abdulsalam Shuaib
- Abdur-Rahman Lukman
- Abdus-Salam Rukiyat
- Abdussalam Hameedat Opeyemi
- Abebrese John Tabiri
- Abeldaño Ariel
- Abou-Khalil Jad
- Abou-Taleb Hisham
- Abozid Anwaar
- Abozied Hesham
- Abrate Alberto
- Abu-Zaid Ahmed
- Abubakar Mohammed Kabir
- Abud Burçin
- Abuzaid Mohammed
- Adam Albushra Altayeb
- Adamina Michel
- Adamou Harissou
- Adamu Auwal
- Adamu Kabir Musa
- Adanu Kekeli
- Adebara Idowu
- Adebola Oluwaseyi
- Ademuyiwa Adesoji
- Adeniran Abiodun
- Adepiti Akinfolarin
- Aderogba Adeleke Akeem
- Adesunkanmi Abdulhafiz
- Adeyeye Ademola
- Adisa Adewale
- Adjeso Theophilus Justus Kofi
- Ads Adel Mohamed
- Ads Alaa Mohamed
- Adu-Aryee Nii Armah
- Adumah Collins
- Afzal Irrum
- Agapov Mikhail
- Agarwal Gaurav
- Agarwal Ravi
- Agbeko Anita Eseenam
- Agbeno Evans Kofi
- Agbonrofo Peter
- Agboola Oluseyi
- Aggarwal Gaurav
- Aghadi Ifeanyi
- Aghtarafi Natasha
- Agrawal Amit
- Agresta Ferdinando
- Aguado Héctor J.
- Aguilera-Arevalo Maria-Lorena
- Aherne Thomas
- Ahmad Aline
- Ahmad Maleeha
- Ahmad Misbahu
- Ahmad Sarwat
- Ahmad Shahzaib
- Ahmad Shoaib
- Ahmed Hayat Tarig Abdelhafiz
- Ahmed Khalid
- Ahmed Sharwany
- Ahmed Shima
- Ahmed Usama
- Aisuodionoe-Shadrach Oseremen
- Aitken Sarah
- Ajenifuja Kayode
- Ajiya Abdulrazak
- Akeel Nouf
- Akin Emrah
- Akinajo Opeyemi
- Akinyemi Tosin
- Akrida Ioanna
- Aktokmakyan Talar Vartanoglu
- Akwaisah Ayoub
- Al Bettar Osama
- Al-Badawi Ismail A.
- Al-Juaifari Maytham
- Al-Khyatt Waleed
- Al-Mallah Abdullah
- Al-Nusairi Ahmed
- Al-Saadi Nina
- Al-Sayaghi Khaled
- Al-Shaiji Tariq
- Al-Shehari Mohammed
- Al-Touny Aiman
- Al-Touny Shimaa A.
- Aladawi Omar
- Aladna Abdallah
- Alali Mahmoud
- Alam Mahmood
- Alam Mohammed Shadrul
- Alarabi Rehab
- Alawneh Yazan
- Alayande Barnabas
- Albanese Erminia
- Albayadi Eslam
- Albdour Maram
- Alconchel Felipe
- Alderazi Amer
- Alegbeleye Bamidele
- Alekberli Tural
- Alemu Misganaw Alemu Adimass
- Alexander Philip
- Alfieri Alex
- Algahtany Khaled
- Algarni Kamal
- Alhamad Ameen
- Alhamid Mohammad
- Alharmi Rawan A. Rahman
- Alharthi Mohammed
- Alhazmi Barrag
- Ali Mohamed Shafi Mahboob
- Ali Stephen
- Alibrahim Hidar
- Aljaaly Hattan
- Aljaiuossi Anas
- Aljanadi Firas
- Aljiffry Murad
- Aljirdabi Noof
- Alkahlan Mohammed
- Alkhalifa Elmustafa
- Alkhatib Sondos
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- Sorbi Flavia
- Sotiropoulou Maria
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- Yigit Banu
- Yildirim Asif
- Yim Guang
- Yiu Andrew
- Yonekura Hiroshi
- Yotsov Tsanko
- Younis Muhammad Umar
- Yunus Alif
- Yusefi Hossein
- Zabaleta Jon
- Zabkiewicz Catheriner
- Zaccaria Giulia
- Zacharia Bincy
- Zafar Syed Nabeel
- Zago Mauro
- Zaheen Zakia
- Zahid Zahra
- Zaimis Tilemachos
- Zakaria Andee Dzulkarnaen
- Zambon Martina
- Zamora Lindsey
- Zampogna Biagio
- Zancana Giuseppa
- Zani Augusto
- Zanin Luca
- Zanini Nicola
- Zapardiel Ignacio
- Zapata Carlos Shiraishi
- Zarif Pierre
- Zaránd Attila
- Zehnder Philipp
- Zenger Serkan
- Zenha Horácio
- Zhu Michael Z. L.
- Ziemann Sebastian
- Zimak Danijela Mrazovac
- Zimak Zoran
- Zivkovic Dragana
- Zizzo Maurizio
- Zucker Benjamin
- Zwain Yasir
- Zyskowski Michael
- Ávila Clara Castro
- Älgå Andreas
- Çakici Mehmet Çaǧlar
- Çelik Enes
- Çelik Meryem Nur
- Özçay Necdet
- Şevik Hüsnü
- Šantak Goran
- Šimko Kristián
- Žatecký Jan
- Publication venue
- 'Oxford University Press (OUP)'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2023
- Field of study
Abstract
Background
Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres.
Methods
This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries.
Results
In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia.
Conclusion
This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries
Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries
- Author
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- Publication venue
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Publication date
- 01/07/2023
- Field of study
Background
Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres.
Methods
This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries.
Results
In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia.
Conclusion
This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin (18346572)
- Aanuoluwa James Salemcity (18803035)
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- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 16/05/2024
- Field of study
BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p
Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries
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- Publication venue
- country:GB
- Publication date
- 01/01/2023
- Field of study
Background: Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods: This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was coprioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low-middle-income countries. Results: In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of 'single-use' consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low-middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion: This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high- and low-middle-income countries