Monetary and Fiscal Stimuli, Ownership Structure, and China's Housing Market

In the recent financial crisis, macroeconomic stimuli produced mixed results across developed economies. In contrast, China's stimulus boosted real GDP growth from an annualized 6.2% in the first quarter of 2009 trough to 11.9% in the first quarter of 2010. Amidst this phenomenal response, land auction and house prices in major cities soared. We argue that the speed and efficacy of China's stimulus derives from state control over its banking system and corporate sector. Beijing ordered state-owned banks to lend, and they lent. Beijing ordered centrally-controlled state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to invest, and they invested. However, our data show that much of this investment was highly leveraged purchases of real estate. Residential land auction prices in eight major cities rose about 100% in 2009, controlling for quality variation. Moreover, higher price rises occur these SOEs are more active buyers. We argue that these centrally-controlled SOEs overbid substantially, fueling a real estate bubble; and that China's seemingly highly effective macroeconomic stimulus package may well have induced costly resource misallocation.Monetary stimuli; Fiscal Stimuli; Ownership Structure; Housing Market; China

Monetary and Fiscal Stimuli, Ownership Structure, and China's Housing Market

In the recent financial crisis, macroeconomic stimuli produced mixed results across developed economies. In contrast, China's stimulus boosted real GDP growth from an annualized 6.2% in the first quarter of 2009 trough to 11.9% in the first quarter of 2010. Amidst this phenomenal response, land auction and house prices in major cities soared. We argue that the speed and efficacy of China's stimulus derives from state control over its banking system and corporate sector. Beijing ordered state-owned banks to lend, and they lent. Beijing ordered centrally-controlled state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to invest, and they invested. However, our data show that much of this investment was highly leveraged purchases of real estate. Residential land auction prices in eight major cities rose about 100% in 2009, controlling for quality variation. Moreover, higher price rises occur these SOEs are more active buyers. We argue that these centrally-controlled SOEs overbid substantially, fueling a real estate bubble; and that China's seemingly highly effective macroeconomic stimulus package may well have induced costly resource misallocation.

China's economic co-operation related investment:an investigation of its direction and some implications for outward investment

Chinese firms undertake large scale contracted projects in a number of countries under the auspices of economic cooperation. While there are suggestions that these activities are an extension of China's soft power aimed at facilitating Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in those countries, often for access to natural resources, there is no systematic analysis of this in the literature. In this paper, we examine China's economic cooperation related investment (ECI) over time. Our results suggest that the pattern of investment is indeed explained well by factors that are used in the stylised literature to explain directional patterns of outward FDI. They also demonstrate that the (positive) relationship between Chinese ECI and the recipient countries' natural resource richness is not economically meaningful. Finally, while there is some support for the popular wisdom that China is willing to do business with countries with weak political rights, the evidence suggests that, ceteris paribus, its ECI is more likely to flow to countries with low corruption levels and, by extension, better institutions

Determinants of Cross-Border M&As and Shareholder Wealth Effects in a Globalized World

We analyze theoretical insights and empirical regularities related to factors determining the cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and impact of M&As on shareholder value of acquires and targets. The analysis of cross-border M&As is a relatively new subject and only recently received rigorous attention in academic research. Within this nascent literature, the survey pays particular attention to the emerging markets, which, in line with their growing role of in the global economy, became an increasingly important arena for cross-border M&As. The existing evidence point out to prevailing challenges in studying cross-border M&As by emerging markets firms. The results are often contradictory and tend to focus on a single country falling short of formally testing existing theories or developing comprehensive theories for emerging economies. We show that the type of factors increasing the value enhancing effects of M&As tends to be similar to the factors affecting the likelihood of M&As transactions. The remaining methodological challenges for the existing studies are related to strong evidence with respect to nonrandom selection of acquisition targets, which, among other “selection issues,” has important implications for choosing counterfactual evidence in order to appropriately compare pre- and postacquisition performance of firms

Emerging Multinationals from Mid-Range Economies: The Influence of Institutions and Factor Markets

This paper revisits and extends our earlier work (in 2005) in the pages of this journal. We argue that there is a need for more fine-grained understanding of the country context along two dimensions: (1) institutional development and (2) infrastructure and factor market development. Specifically, we propose an enriched typology of emerging economies with a focus on mid-range emerging economies, which are positioned between traditional emerging economies and newly developed economies. Then we examine new multinationals from these mid-range emerging economies that have internationalized both regionally and globally. We outline directions for further research based on this typology in terms of (1) government influence, (2) resource orchestration, (3) market entry, and (4) corporate governance regarding the internationalization strategy of these emerging multinationals from mid-range economies. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for the Advancement of Management Studies

Chinese multinationals: host country factors and foreign direct investment location

The study of Chinese multinationals (MNEs) is becoming one of the most promising research topics in the international business literature. After outlining the distinctive characteristics of the internationalization process of Chinese MNEs, this chapter analyzes the influence of various host country factors on the location of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (FDI). From a sample of 189 outward FDI decisions made by 35 mainland Chinese firms in 63 countries, our results show that host market size and the existence of overseas Chinese in the host country are positively associated with the number of Chinese FDIs. However, greater difficulty in doing business and host country political risk have no effect

Business under adverse home country institutions: The case of international sanctions against Myanmar

We expand the institutional perspective of international business by exploring the range of institutions outside the host country that influence international business. We use a critical case, Myanmar, to explore the dynamics of institutional constraints and the reaction of business to such constraints. Our in-depth case analysis focuses on four industries for the period 1996–2011. On this basis, we develop the concept of ‘low profile strategy’ and propose a conceptual framework of home country pressures influencing multinational enterprises’ international operation, and the variation of their impact across industries and firms. This framework provides a foundation for future work on the extra-territorial effects of institutions in international business

Internalisation Theory and outward direct investment by emerging market multinationals

The rise of multinational enterprises from emerging countries (EMNEs) poses an important test for theories of the multinational enterprise such as internalisation theory. It has been contended that new phenomena need new theory. This paper proposes that internalisation theory is appropriate to analyse EMNEs. This paper examines four approaches to EMNEs—international investment strategies, domestic market imperfections, international corporate networks and domestic institutions—and three case studies—Chinese outward FDI, Indian foreign acquisitions and investment in tax havens—to show the enduring relevance and predictive power of internalisation theory. This analysis encompasses many other approaches as special cases of internalisation theory. The use of internalisation theory to analyse EMNEs is to be commended, not only because of its theoretical inclusivity, but also because it has the ability to connect and to explain seemingly desperate phenomena

Inventory Signals

How does operational competence translate into market value, when firms cannot credibly communicate their competence to the market? I consider the example of inventory and fill rates. When the market sees a high-inventory firm, it cannot tell whether the inventory is due to incompetence or a strategy to enhance fill rate. Firms might decide to signal their competence to the market by carrying less inventory. I show conditions for separating and pooling perfect Bayesian equilibria. I also provide empirical evidence for this theory that inventory has a signaling role. The theory could potentially provide a framework that describes one way in which a range of operational competences such as purchasing and outsourcing, translate to market value. Practically, it has implications for firms, such as how to strategically communicate to the market, reward managers, or even whether to go public and be subject to market pressures