Testing for a trend in a partially incomplete hurricane record

The record of annual counts of basinwide North Atlantic hurricanes is incomplete prior to 1946. This has restricted efforts to identify a long-term trend in hurricane activity to the postwar period. In contrast, the complete record of U.S. landfalling hurricanes extends back to 1930 or earlier. Under the assumption that the proportion of basinwide hurricanes that make landfall is constant over time, it is possible to use the record of landfalling hurricanes to extend a test for trend in basinwide hurricane activity beyond the postwar period. This note describes and illustrates a method for doing this. The results suggest that there has been a significant reduction in basinwide hurricane activity over the period 1930-98.The record of annual counts of basinwide North Atlantic hurricanes is incomplete prior to 1946. This has restricted efforts to identify a long-term trend in hurricane activity to the postwar period. In contrast, the complete record of U.S. landfalling hurricanes extends back to 1930 or earlier. Under the assumption that the proportion of basinwide hurricanes that make landfall is constant over time, it is possible to use the record of landfalling hurricanes to extend a test for trend in basinwide hurricane activity beyond the postwar period. This note describes and illustrates a method for doing this. The results suggest that there has been a significant reduction in basinwide hurricane activity over the period 1930-98

Testing for trend in North Atlantic Hurricane activity, 1900-98

The detection of a trend in hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin has been restricted by the incompleteness of the record prior to 1946. In an earlier paper, the complete record of U.S. landfalling hurricanes was used to extend the period of analysis back to 1930. In this paper, a further extension is made back to 1900. In doing so, the assumption in the earlier paper of an exponential linear trend is relaxed and the trend is estimated nonparametrically. The results show no significant trend in basinwide hurricane activity over the period 1900-98

Hybridization in bottlenose dolphins—A case study of Tursiops aduncus × T. truncatus hybrids and successful backcross hybridization events

The bottlenose dolphin, genus Tursiops is one of the best studied of all the Cetacea with a minimum of two species widely recognised. Common bottlenose dolphins (T. truncatus), are the cetacean species most frequently held in captivity and are known to hybridize with species from at least 6 different genera. In this study, we document several intra-generic hybridization events between T. truncatus and T. aduncus held in captivity. We demonstrate that the F1 hybrids are fertile and can backcross producing apparently healthy offspring, thereby showing introgressive inter-specific hybridization within the genus. We document that female F1 hybrids can reach sexual maturity at 4 yr and 3 mo of age, and can become pregnant and give birth before being fully weaned. The information presented has implications for understanding hybrid reticulation among cetacean species and practical implications for captive facilities housing either Tursiops species or hybrids thereof

Dual Isomonodromic Deformations and Moment Maps to Loop Algebras

The Hamiltonian structure of the monodromy preserving deformation equations of Jimbo {\it et al } is explained in terms of parameter dependent pairs of moment maps from a symplectic vector space to the dual spaces of two different loop algebras. The nonautonomous Hamiltonian systems generating the deformations are obtained by pulling back spectral invariants on Poisson subspaces consisting of elements that are rational in the loop parameter and identifying the deformation parameters with those determining the moment maps. This construction is shown to lead to ``dual'' pairs of matrix differential operators whose monodromy is preserved under the same family of deformations. As illustrative examples, involving discrete and continuous reductions, a higher rank generalization of the Hamiltonian equations governing the correlation functions for an impenetrable Bose gas is obtained, as well as dual pairs of isomonodromy representations for the equations of the Painleve transcendents $P_{V}$ and $P_{VI}$.Comment: preprint CRM-1844 (1993), 28 pgs. (Corrected date and abstract.

The metabolism and de-bromination of bromotyrosine in vivo

During inflammation, leukocyte-derived eosinophil peroxidase catalyses the formation of hypobromous acid, which can brominate tyrosine residues in proteins to form bromotyrosine. Since eosinophils are involved in the pathogenesis of allergic reactions, such as asthma, urinary bromotyrosine level has been used for the assessment of children with asthma. However, little is known about the metabolism and disposition of bromotyrosine in vivo. The aim of this study was to identify the major urinary metabolites formed during bromotyrosine metabolism and to develop mass spectrometric methods for their quantitation. Deuterium-labeled bromotyrosine was synthesized by deuterium exchange. [D3]bromotyrosine (500 nmole) was injected intraperitoneally into Sprague-Dawley rats and urine was collected for 24 h in a metabolic cage. 13C-labeled derivatives of bromotyrosine and its major urinary metabolite were synthesized and used as internal standards for quantitation. Following solid phase extraction, urine samples were derivatized to the pentafluorobenzyl ester, and analyzed using isotope dilution gas chromatography and negative-ion chemical ionization mass spectrometry. A novel brominated metabolite, 3-bromo-4-hydroxyphenylacetic acid (bromo-HPA), was identified as the major brominated metabolite of bromotyrosine. Bromo-HPA only accounted for 0.43±0.04% of infused [D3]bromotyrosine and 0.12±0.02% of infused [D3]bromotyrosine was excreted in the urine unchanged. However, ~1.3% (6.66±1.33 nmole) of infused [D3]bromotyrosine was excreted in the urine as the de-brominated metabolite, [D3]4-hydroxyphenylacetic acid, which is also a urinary metabolite of tyrosine in mammals. We also tested whether or not iodotyrosine dehalogenase can catalyse de-bromination of bromotyrosine and showed that iodotyrosine dehalogenase is able to de-brominate free bromotyrosine in vitro. We identified bromo-HPA as the main brominated urinary metabolite of bromotyrosine in rats. However, de-halogenation of bromotyrosine is the major metabolic pathway to eliminate free brominated tyrosine in vivo

Confusing the extragalactic neutrino flux limit with a neutrino propagation limit

We study the possible suppression of the extragalactic neutrino flux due to a nonstandard interaction during its propagation. In particular, we study neutrino interaction with an ultra-light scalar field dark matter. It is shown that the extragalactic neutrino flux may be suppressed by such an interaction, leading to a new mechanism to reduce the ultra-high energy neutrino flux. We study both the cases of non-self-conjugate as well as self-conjugate dark matter. In the first case, the suppression is independent of the neutrino and dark matter masses. We conclude that care must be taken when explaining limits on the neutrino flux through source acceleration mechanisms only, since there could be other mechanisms for the reduction of the neutrino flux.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures. Important changes implemented. Abstract modified. Conclusions remain. To be published in JCA

Fluctuations in viscous fingering

Our experiments on viscous (Saffman-Taylor) fingering in Hele-Shaw channels reveal finger width fluctuations that were not observed in previous experiments, which had lower aspect ratios and higher capillary numbers Ca. These fluctuations intermittently narrow the finger from its expected width. The magnitude of these fluctuations is described by a power law, Ca^{-0.64}, which holds for all aspect ratios studied up to the onset of tip instabilities. Further, for large aspect ratios, the mean finger width exhibits a maximum as Ca is decreased instead of the predicted monotonic increase.Comment: Revised introduction, smoothed transitions in paper body, and added a few additional minor results. (Figures unchanged.) 4 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to PRE Rapi

Percolation and epidemics in a two-dimensional small world

Percolation on two-dimensional small-world networks has been proposed as a model for the spread of plant diseases. In this paper we give an analytic solution of this model using a combination of generating function methods and high-order series expansion. Our solution gives accurate predictions for quantities such as the position of the percolation threshold and the typical size of disease outbreaks as a function of the density of "shortcuts" in the small-world network. Our results agree with scaling hypotheses and numerical simulations for the same model.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 2 table