Forecasting environmental equity: Air quality responses to road user charging in Leeds, UK

Sustainable development requires that the goals of economic development, environmental protection and social justice are considered collectively when formulating development strategies. In the context of planning sustainable transport systems, trade-offs between the economy and the environment, and between the economy and social justice have received considerable attention. In contrast, much less attention has been paid to environmental equity, the trade-off between environmental and social justice goals, a significant omission given the growing attention to environmental justice by policy makers in the EU and elsewhere. In many countries, considerable effort has been made to develop clean transport systems by using, for example, technical, economic and planning instruments. However, little effort has been made to understand the distributive and environmental justice implications of these measures. This paper investigates the relationship between urban air quality (as NO2) and social deprivation for the city of Leeds, UK. Through application of a series of linked dynamic models of traffic simulation and assignment, vehicle emission, and pollutant dispersion, the environmental equity implications of a series of urban transport strategies, including road user cordon and distance based charging, road network development, and emission control, are assessed. Results indicate a significant degree of environmental inequity exists in Leeds. Analysis of the transport strategies indicates that this inequity will be reduced through natural fleet renewal, and, perhaps contrary to expectations, road user charging is also capable of promoting environmental equity. The environmental equity response is however, sensitive to road pricing scheme design

Are Survivors Different? Genetic-Based Selection of Trees by Mountain Pine Beetle During a Climate Change-Driven Outbreak in a High-Elevation Pine Forest

Increased mortality of forest trees, driven directly or indirectly by climate change, is occurring around the world. In western North America, whitebark pine, a high elevation keystone species, and lodgepole pine, a widespread ecologically and economically important tree, have experienced extensive mortality in recent climate-driven outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle. However, even in stands experiencing high levels of mortality, some mature trees have survived. We hypothesized that the outbreak acted as a natural selection event, removing trees most susceptible to the beetle and least adapted to warmer drier conditions. If this was the case, genetic change would be expected at loci underlying beetle resistance. Given we did not know the basis for resistance, we used inter-simple sequence repeats to compare the genetic profiles of two sets of trees, survivors (mature, living trees) and general population (trees just under the diameter preferred by the beetles and expected to approximate the genetic structure of each tree species at the site without beetle selection). This method detects high levels of polymorphism and has often been able to detect patterns associated with phenotypic traits. For both whitebark and lodgepole pine, survivors and general population trees mostly segregated independently indicating a genetic basis for survivorship. Exceptions were a few general population trees that segregated with survivors in proportions roughly reflecting the proportion of survivors versus beetle-killed trees. Our results indicate that during outbreaks, beetle choice may result in strong selection for trees with greater resistance to attack. Our findings suggest that survivorship is genetically based and, thus, heritable. Therefore, retaining survivors after outbreaks to act as primary seed sources could act to promote adaptation. Further research will be needed to characterize the actual mechanism(s) of resistance

Disease-modifying therapy prescription patterns in people with multiple sclerosis by age

BACKGROUND: Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for multiple sclerosis (MS) are approved for their ability to reduce disease activity, namely clinical relapses and signal changes on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Disease activity appears age dependent. Thus, the greatest benefit would be expected in younger people with MS (PwMS) whereas benefits in the elderly are uncertain. METHODS: Real-world data were obtained from PwMS from the North American Research Committee on Multiple Sclerosis (NARCOMS) registry and the US Department of Veterans Affairs Multiple Sclerosis Surveillance Registry (MSSR). RESULTS: 6948 PwMS were surveyed from NARCOMS, and the MSSR had 1719 participants. In younger adult PwMS 40-years old or less, 183 (61.4%) in NARCOMS and 179 (70.5%) in the MSSR were prescribed DMTs. Among PwMS over age 60, 1575 (40.1%) in NARCOMS and 239 (36.3%) in the MSSR were prescribed DMTs. More PwMS in the age group of 31-40 ( CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that DMTs are under-utilized in the younger population and continue to be commonly prescribed in the elderly. Broader access may explain the higher prescription rate of DMTs in US veterans

Selenium isotope evidence for progressive oxidation of the Neoproterozoic biosphere

Neoproterozoic (1,000–542 Myr ago) Earth experienced profound environmental change, including ‘snowball’ glaciations, oxygenation and the appearance of animals. However, an integrated understanding of these events remains elusive, partly because proxies that track subtle oceanic or atmospheric redox trends are lacking. Here we utilize selenium (Se) isotopes as a tracer of Earth redox conditions. We find temporal trends towards lower δ82/76Se values in shales before and after all Neoproterozoic glaciations, which we interpret as incomplete reduction of Se oxyanions. Trends suggest that deep-ocean Se oxyanion concentrations increased because of progressive atmospheric and deep-ocean oxidation. Immediately after the Marinoan glaciation, higher δ82/76Se values superpose the general decline. This may indicate less oxic conditions with lower availability of oxyanions or increased bioproductivity along continental margins that captured heavy seawater δ82/76Se into buried organics. Overall, increased ocean oxidation and atmospheric O2 extended over at least 100 million years, setting the stage for early animal evolution

Shifting the Narrative: Child-led Responses to Climate Change and Disasters in El Salvador and the Philippines

Children and young people are commonly treated in the climate change and disasters literature as victims of natural events requiring protection by adults. This article critiques that narrative, drawing on examples from the Philippines and El Salvador that explore how children’s groups have responded to such issues through child‐centred initiatives. This highlights the importance of understanding children’s perception and communication of risks facing their lives and livelihoods, their potential as agents of change in preventing disasters and adapting to climate change, and the implications for the theory and practice of child participation, particularly in developing countries

A quantitative model for estimating risk from multiple interacting natural hazards: an application to northeast Zhejiang, China

Multi-hazard risk assessment is a major concern in risk analysis, but most approaches do not consider all hazard interactions when calculating possible losses. We address this problem by developing an improved quantitative model - Model for multi-hazard Risk assessment with a consideration of Hazard Interaction (MmhRisk-HI). This model calculates the possible loss caused by multiple hazards, with an explicit consideration of interaction between those hazards. There are two main components to the model. In the first, based on the hazard-forming environment, relationships among hazards are classified into four types for calculation of the exceedance probability of multiple hazards occurrence. In the second, a Bayesian network is used to calculate possible loss caused by multiple hazards with different exceedance probabilities. A multi-hazard risk map can then be drawn addressing the probability of multi-hazard occurrence and corresponding loss. This model was applied in northeast Zhejiang, China and validated by comparison against an observed multi-hazard sequence. The validation results show that the model can more effectively represent the real world, and that the modelled outputs, possible loss caused by multiple hazards, are reliable. The outputs can additionally help to identify areas at greatest risk, and allows a determination of the factors that contribute to that risk, and hence the model can provide useful further information for planners and decision-makers concerned with risk mitigation

The danger of mapping risk from multiple natural hazards

In recent decades, society has been greatly affected by natural disasters (e.g. floods, droughts, earthquakes), losses and effects caused by these disasters have been increasing. Conventionally, risk assessment focuses on individual hazards, but the importance of addressing multiple hazards is now recognised. Two approaches exist to assess risk from multiple-hazards; the risk index (addressing hazards, and the exposure and vulnerability of people or property at risk) and the mathematical statistics method (which integrates observations of past losses attributed to each hazard type). These approaches have not previously been compared. Our application of both to China clearly illustrates their inconsistency. For example, from 31 Chinese provinces assessed for multi-hazard risk, Gansu and Sichuan provinces are at low risk of life loss with the risk index approach, but high risk using the mathematical statistics approach. Similarly, Tibet is identified as being at almost the highest risk of economic loss using the risk index, but lowest risk under the mathematical statistics approach. Such inconsistency should be recognised if risk is to be managed effectively, whilst the practice of multi-hazard risk assessment needs to incorporate the relative advantages of both approaches

Pregnancy as a risk factor for severe influenza infection: an individual participant data meta-analysis

Background: WHO identifies pregnant women to be at increased risk for severe outcomes from influenza virus infections and recommends that they be prioritized for influenza vaccination. The evidence supporting this, however, is inconsistent. Ecologic studies in particular suggest more severe outcomes from influenza infection during pregnancy than studies based on individual patient data. Individual studies however may be underpowered and, as reported in a previous systematic review, confounding factors could not be adjusted for. We therefore conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to assess the risk for severe outcomes of influenza infection in pregnant women while adjusting for other prognostic factors. Methods: We contacted authors of studies included in a recently published systematic review. We pooled the individual participant data of women of reproductive age and laboratory confirmation of influenza virus infection. We used a generalized linear mixed model and reported odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: A total of 33 datasets with data on 186,656 individuals were available, including 36,498 eligible women of reproductive age and known pregnancy status. In the multivariable model, pregnancy was associated with a 7 times higher risk of hospital admission (OR 6.80, 95%CI 6.02–7.68), among patients receiving medical care as in- or outpatients, pregnancy was associated with a lower risk of admission to intensive care units (ICU; OR 0.57, 95%CI 0.48–0.69), and was not significantly associated with death (OR 1.00, 95%CI 0.75–1.34). Conclusions: Our study found a higher risk of influenza associated hospitalization among pregnant women as compared to non-pregnant women. We did not find a higher mortality rate or higher likelihood of ICU admission among pregnant women who sought medical care. However, this study did not address whether a true community based cohort of pregnant women is at higher risk of influenza associated complications.Fil: Mertz, Dominik. Mc Master University; CanadáFil: Lo, Calvin Ka Fung. Mc Master University; CanadáFil: Lytvyn, Lyubov. Mc Master University; CanadáFil: Ortiz, Justin R.. Organizacion Mundial de la Salud; ArgentinaFil: Loeb, Mark. Mc Master University; CanadáFil: Ang, Li Wei. Ministry of Health; SingapurFil: Anlikumar, Mehta Asmita. Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham; IndiaFil: Bonmarin, Isabelle. Santé publique; FranciaFil: Borja Aburto, Victor Hugo. Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social; MéxicoFil: Burgmann, Heinz. Medical University Vienna; AustriaFil: Carratalà, Jordi. Universidad de Barcelona; España. Instituto de Investigación Biomédica de Bellvitge; España. Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases; EspañaFil: Chowell, Gerardo. Georgia State University; Estados Unidos. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Cilloniz, Catia. Universidad de Barcelona; España. Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas August Pi i Sunyer; EspañaFil: Cohen, Jessica. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Cutter, Jeffery. Ministry of Health; SingapurFil: Filleul, Laurent. Santé publique; Francia. French National Public Health Agency; FranciaFil: Garg, Shikha. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Geis, Steffen. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Reino UnidoFil: Helferty, Melissa. Public Health Agency; CanadáFil: Huang, Wan Ting. Taiwan Centers for Disease Control; ChinaFil: Jain, Seema. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Sevic, Biljana Joves. Institute for Pulmonary Diseases of Vojvodina; SerbiaFil: Kelly, Paul. Australian Capital Territory Health Directorate; Australia. Australian National University Medical School; AustraliaFil: Kusznierz, Gabriela. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbran". Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Respiratorias; ArgentinaFil: Lehners, Nicola. Ruprecht Karls Universitat Heidelberg; AlemaniaFil: Lenzi, Luana. Universidade Federal do Paraná; BrasilFil: Ling, Ivan T.. Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital; AustraliaFil: Mitchell, Robyn. Public Health Agency; CanadáFil: Mulrennan, Siobhain A.. Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital; Canadá. University of Western Australia; AustraliaFil: Nishioka, Sergio A.. Ministerio de Salud de Brasil; BrasilFil: Norton, Robert. Townsville Hospital; AustraliaFil: Oh, Won Sup. Kangwon National University School of Medicine; Corea del SurFil: Orellano, Pablo Wenceslao. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

A review of electrostatic monitoring technology: The state of the art and future research directions

Electrostatic monitoring technology is a useful tool for monitoring and detecting component faults and degradation, which is necessary for system health management. It encompasses three key research areas: sensor technology; signal detection, processing and feature extraction; and verification experimentation. It has received considerable recent attention for condition monitoring due to its ability to provide warning information and non-obstructive measurements on-line. A number of papers in recent years have covered specific aspects of the technology, including sensor design optimization, sensor characteristic analysis, signal de-noising and practical applications of the technology. This paper provides a review of the recent research and of the development of electrostatic monitoring technology, with a primary emphasis on its application for the aero-engine gas path. The paper also presents a summary of some of the current applications of electrostatic monitoring technology in other industries, before concluding with a brief discussion of the current research situation and possible future challenges and research gaps in this field. The aim of this paper is to promote further research into this promising technology by increasing awareness of both the potential benefits of the technology and the current research gaps