Modelling shallow landslides: the importance of hydrological controls and lateral reinforcement

Shallow landslides are important as geomorphic agents of erosion, sources of catchment sediment and potential hazards to life and infrastructure. The importance of these mass movements is difficult to define using solely field- based approaches because these are often too limited in both duration and resolution to fully determine the magnitude and frequency of these processes. Modelling is a powerful alternative tool for providing insight into underlying processes governing shallow landslides and for testing new hypotheses regarding environmental and land-use change impacts. The explanatory power of models is a function of their process representation and predictive ability. Current models suitable for catchment-scale application provide valuable probabilistic information on failure, but not detailed deterministic predictions. Using the English Lake District as a study area, this thesis addresses three issues necessary to provide the process-basis of these probabilistic analyses. First, poorly constrained or spatially variable input parameters such as soil depth, root reinforcement or material properties are often used to explain the locations of failure within a larger area that has a high, sometimes equal, probability of failure. The thesis develops rigorous new methods to quantify and minimise error in these parameters, representing them as distributions to capture both their natural variability and the error in their measurement. Results suggest that lateral root reinforcement even for grasses and shrubs may provide important additional strength (as much as 6 kPa) in the top 0.5 m of the soil. Second, infinite slope stability analysis neglects important additional lateral friction and root reinforcement effects at the margins of an unstable block. More sophisticated three-dimensional stability analyses can represent this process but are limited in their applicability by computational and data resolution requirements. This thesis derives from first principles a set of analytical governing equations for three-dimensional analysis; tests these against benchmark geotechnical methods; and applies them to establish key landslide scaling relationships. Third, shallow landslides in the UK are almost exclusively hydrologically triggered, resulting from local high pore water pressures. In line with the current paradigm existing stability models assume that the topography plays a dominant role in defining the spatial pattern of soil moisture and therefore pore water pressures in the landscape. This hypothesis is tested: first at the hillslope scale (10(^1) km(^2)) with a network of ֊100 wells; then the catchment scale (10(^2) km(^2)) using high resolution orthorectified aerial photographs to identify vegetation indicative of wet habitats and applying these as a proxy for soil moisture. These studies indicate that, for the case-study, wet areas are controlled at the landscape scale by a set of broad topographic limits in terms of slope and contributing area. Within these there is considerable scatter, resulting from the interplay of local factors such as: bedrock topography, preferential flow and soil stratification. Lateral root cohesion represents an important source of additional strength which can be included within analytical stability equations to create a threshold dependence on landslide size. Patterns of instability will then depend on the spatial pattern of other influencing factors (e.g. soil strength and pore pressure). At present the limits to available data and our understanding of hillslope hydrology constrain our ability to predict slope instability in environments like the Lake District. Future research might usefully identify landscape scale controls on this predictability

A Computationally Efficient Method to Determine the Probability of Rainfall-Triggered Cut Slope Failure Accounting for Upslope Hydrological Conditions

We present a new computationally efficient methodology to estimate the probability of rainfall-induced slope failure based on mechanical probabilistic slope stability analyses coupled with a hydrogeological model of the upslope area. The model accounts for: (1) uncertainty of geotechnical and hydrogeological parameters; (2) rainfall precipitation recorded over a period of time; and (3) the effect of upslope topography. The methodology provides two key outputs: (1) time-varying conditional probability of slope failure; and (2) an estimate of the absolute frequency of slope failure over any time period of interest. The methodology consists of the following steps: first, characterising the uncertainty of the slope geomaterial strength parameters; second, performing limit equilibrium method stability analyses for the realisations of the geomaterial strength parameters required to calculate the slope probability of failure by a Monte Carlo Simulation. The stability analyses are performed for various phreatic surface heights. These phreatic surfaces are then matched to a phreatic surface time series obtained from the 1D Hillslope-Storage Boussinesq model run for the upslope area to generate Factor of Safety (FoS) time series. A timevarying conditional probability of failure and an absolute frequency of slope failure can then be estimated from these FoS time series. We demonstrate this methodology on a road slope cutting in Nepal where geotechnical tests are not readily conducted. We believe this methodology improves the reliability of slope safety estimates where site investigation is not possible. Also, the methodology enables practitioners to avoid making unrealistic assumptions on the hydrological input. Finally, we find that the time-varying failure probability shows marked variations over time as a result of the monsoon wet–dry weather

Work in Hypoxic Conditions-Consensus Statement of the Medical Commission of the Union Internationale des Associations d'Alpinisme (UIAA MedCom)

Objectives: The Commission gives recommendations on how to provide health and safety for employees in different kinds of low oxygen atmospheres. So far, no recommendations exist that take into account the several factors we have outlined in this report. Methods: The health and safety recommendations of several countries were analysed for their strength and deficiencies. The scientific literature was checked (Medline, etc.) and evaluated for relevance of the topic. Typical situations of work in hypoxia were defined and their specific risks described. Specific recommendations are provided for any of these situations. Results: We defined four main groups with some subgroups (main risk in brackets): short exposure (pressure change), limited exposure (acute altitude disease), expatriates (chronic altitude disease), and high-altitude populations (re-entry pulmonary oedema). For healthy unacclimatized persons, an acute but limited exposure down to 13% O2 does not cause a health risk. Employees should be advised to leave hypoxic areas for any break, if possible. Detailed advice is given for any other situation and pre-existing diseases. Conclusions: If the specific risk of the respective type of hypoxia is taken into account, a pragmatic approach to provide health and safety for employees is possible. In contrast to other occupational exposures, a repeated exposure as often as possible is of benefit as it causes partial acclimatization. The consensus statement was approved by written consent in lieu of a meeting in July 200

Simple guidelines to minimise exposure to earthquake-triggered landslides

Reducing landslide risk in many mountainous regions is most effectively achieved by reducing exposure to landslides, because landslides cannot be predicted or stopped and engineering solutions are generally impractical or impossible. Because landslide hazard is very site-specific, available hazard maps may not be detailed enough, or contain appropriate and up-to- date information, to inform decision-making. We use our experience of studying the characteristics of landslides in recent large earthquakes to describe three simple guidelines that can be used to minimise exposure to future earthquake-triggered landslide hazard. The most effective measure is to choose a location that minimises the angle to the skyline, and to keep that angle below 25° if at all possible. It is also important to avoid steep channels (those with slopes of >15°), especially if there are many steep hillsides upstream. Finally, the slope of the ground at your location should always be minimised. These guidelines do not specify where landslides will occur, but can be used to distinguish between areas which are more or less likely to be affected by landslides in a large earthquake. They can be used to reduce risk before an earthquake occurs by helping to inform decisions on where to situate key infrastructure, such as schools or health posts. They can be used to inform decisions about the locations of houses, markets, or other areas where people are likely to spend considerable periods of time, or for deciding on appropriate types of land use. The guidelines can also be used in disaster preparedness and response planning, by identifying suitable evacuation routes and open spaces for use as evacuation sites or emergency shelters. We provide some brief guidance on what to do immediately after an earthquake in order to minimise exposure to landslides, and discuss the relevance of these guidelines for protecting against rainfall-triggered landslides which may occur more frequently

Satellite-based emergency mapping using optical imagery: experience and reflections from the 2015 Nepal earthquakes

Landslides triggered by large earthquakes in mountainous regions contribute significantly to overall earthquake losses and pose a major secondary hazard that can persist for months or years. While scientific investigations of coseismic landsliding are increasingly common, there is no protocol for rapid (hours-to-days) humanitarian-facing landslide assessment and no published recognition of what is possible and what is useful to compile immediately after the event. Drawing on the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, we consider how quickly a landslide assessment based upon manual satellite-based emergency mapping (SEM) can be realistically achieved and review the decisions taken by analysts to ascertain the timeliness and type of useful information that can be generated. We find that, at present, many forms of landslide assessment are too slow to generate relative to the speed of a humanitarian response, despite increasingly rapid access to high-quality imagery. Importantly, the value of information on landslides evolves rapidly as a disaster response develops, so identifying the purpose, timescales, and end users of a post-earthquake landslide assessment is essential to inform the approach taken. It is clear that discussions are needed on the form and timing of landslide assessments, and how best to present and share this information, before rather than after an earthquake strikes. In this paper, we share the lessons learned from the Gorkha earthquake, with the aim of informing the approach taken by scientists to understand the evolving landslide hazard in future events and the expectations of the humanitarian community involved in disaster response. Please read the corrigendum first before accessing the articl

Predicting microbial water quality with models: Over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments

The application of models to predict concentrations of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) in environmental systems plays an important role for guiding decision-making associated with the management of microbial water quality. In recent years there has been an increasing demand by policy-makers for models to help inform FIO dynamics in order to prioritise efforts for environmental and human-health protection. However, given the limited evidence-base on which FIO models are built relative to other agricultural pollutants (e.g. nutrients) it is imperative that the end-user expectations of FIO models are appropriately managed. In response, this commentary highlights four over-arching questions associated with: (i) model purpose; (ii) modelling approach; (iii) data availability; and (iv) model application, that must be considered as part of good practice prior to the deployment of any modelling approach to predict FIO behaviour in catchment systems. A series of short and longer-term research priorities are proposed in response to these questions in order to promote better model deployment in the field of catchment microbial dynamics

Entering the Era of Earth Observation-Based Landslide Warning Systems: A novel and exciting framework

Landslide early warning remains a grand challenge due to the high human cost of catastrophic landslides globally and the difficulty of identifying a diverse range of landslide triggering factors. There have been only a very limited number of success stories to date. However, recent advances in earth observation (EO) from ground, aircraft and space have dramatically improved our ability to detect and monitor active landslides and a growing body of geotechnical theory suggests that prefailure behavior can provide clues to the location and timing of impending catastrophic failures. In this paper, we use two recent landslides in China as case studies, to demonstrate that (i) satellite radar observations can be used to detect deformation precursors to catastrophic landslide occurrence, and (ii) early warning can be achieved with real-time in-situ observations. A novel and exciting framework is then proposed to employ EO technologies to build an operational landslide early warning system.This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grants 41801391, 41874005, and 41929001; the National Science Fund for Outstanding Young Scholars of China under grant 41622206; the Fund for International Cooperation under grant NSFCRCUK_NERC; Resilience to Earthquake-Induced Landslide Risk in China under grant 41661134010; the open fund of State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics (SKLGED2018-5-3-E); Sichuan Science and Technology Plan Project under grant 2019YJ0404; State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection Independent Research Project under grant SKLGP2018Z019; the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, the State Agency of Research, and the European Funds for Regional Development under projects TEC2017-85244-C2-1-P and TIN2014-55413-C2-2-P; and the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture, and Sport under project PRX17/00439. This work was also partially supported by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council through the Center for the Observation and Modeling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Tectonics under come30001 and the Looking Inside the Continents From Space and Community Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in China projects under NE/K010794/1 and NE/N012151/1, respectively, and by the European Space Agency through the ESA-MOST DRAGON-4 project (32244 [4]). Roland Bürgmann acknowledges support by the NASA Earth Surface and Interior focus area

Satellite-based emergency mapping using optical imagery: experience and reflections from the 2015 Nepal earthquakes

Landslides triggered by large earthquakes in mountainous regions contribute significantly to overall earthquake losses and pose a major secondary hazard that can persist for months or years. While scientific investigations of coseismic landsliding are increasingly common, there is no protocol for rapid (hours-to-days) humanitarian-facing landslide assessment and no published recognition of what is possible and what is useful to compile immediately after the event. Drawing on the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, we consider how quickly a landslide assessment based upon manual satellite-based emergency mapping (SEM) can be realistically achieved and review the decisions taken by analysts to ascertain the timeliness and type of useful information that can be generated. We find that, at present, many forms of landslide assessment are too slow to generate relative to the speed of a humanitarian response, despite increasingly rapid access to high-quality imagery. Importantly, the value of information on landslides evolves rapidly as a disaster response develops, so identifying the purpose, timescales, and end users of a post-earthquake landslide assessment is essential to inform the approach taken. It is clear that discussions are needed on the form and timing of landslide assessments, and how best to present and share this information, before rather than after an earthquake strikes. In this paper, we share the lessons learned from the Gorkha earthquake, with the aim of informing the approach taken by scientists to understand the evolving landslide hazard in future events and the expectations of the humanitarian community involved in disaster response

Chemoreceptor responsiveness at sea level does not predict the pulmonary pressure response to high altitude

The hypoxic ventilatory response (HVR) at sea level (SL) is moderately predictive of the change in pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) to acute normobaric hypoxia. However, because of progressive changes in the chemoreflex control of breathing and acid-base balance at high altitude (HA), HVR at SL may not predict PASP at HA. We hypothesized that resting peripheral oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO2) at HA would correlate better than HVR at SL to PASP at HA. In 20 participants at SL, we measured normobaric, isocapnic HVR (L/min·-%SpO2 -1) and resting PASP using echocardiography. Both resting SpO2 and PASP measures were repeated on day 2 (n=10), days 4-8 (n=12), and 2-3 weeks (n=8) after arrival at 5050m. These data were also collected at 5050m on life-long HA residents (Sherpa; n=21). Compared to SL, SpO2 decreased from 98.6 to 80.5% (P<0.001), while PASP increased from 21.7 to 34.0mmHg (P<0.001) after 2-3 weeks at 5050m. Isocapnic HVR at SL was not related to SpO2 or PASP at any time point at 5050m (all P>0.05). Sherpa had lower PASP (P<0.01) than lowlanders on days 4-8 despite similar SpO2. Upon correction for hematocrit, Sherpa PASP was not different from lowlanders at SL, but lower than lowlanders at all HA time points. At 5050m, whilst SpO2 was not related to PASP in lowlanders at any point (all R2=0.50), there was a weak relationship in the Sherpa (R2=0.16; P=0.07). We conclude that neither HVR at SL nor resting SpO2 at HA correlates with elevations in PASP at HA

Rapid Acoustic Survey for Biodiversity Appraisal

Biodiversity assessment remains one of the most difficult challenges encountered by ecologists and conservation biologists. This task is becoming even more urgent with the current increase of habitat loss. Many methods–from rapid biodiversity assessments (RBA) to all-taxa biodiversity inventories (ATBI)–have been developed for decades to estimate local species richness. However, these methods are costly and invasive. Several animals–birds, mammals, amphibians, fishes and arthropods–produce sounds when moving, communicating or sensing their environment. Here we propose a new concept and method to describe biodiversity. We suggest to forego species or morphospecies identification used by ATBI and RBA respectively but rather to tackle the problem at another evolutionary unit, the community level. We also propose that a part of diversity can be estimated and compared through a rapid acoustic analysis of the sound produced by animal communities. We produced α and β diversity indexes that we first tested with 540 simulated acoustic communities. The α index, which measures acoustic entropy, shows a logarithmic correlation with the number of species within the acoustic community. The β index, which estimates both temporal and spectral dissimilarities, is linearly linked to the number of unshared species between acoustic communities. We then applied both indexes to two closely spaced Tanzanian dry lowland coastal forests. Indexes reveal for this small sample a lower acoustic diversity for the most disturbed forest and acoustic dissimilarities between the two forests suggest that degradation could have significantly decreased and modified community composition. Our results demonstrate for the first time that an indicator of biological diversity can be reliably obtained in a non-invasive way and with a limited sampling effort. This new approach may facilitate the appraisal of animal diversity at large spatial and temporal scales