ENSO and the Carbon Cycle

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Geophysical Union via the DOI in this recordObservational studies of atmospheric CO2, land ecosystems, and ocean processes show that variability in the carbon cycle is closely related with ENSO. Years with a warm anomaly in the tropical Pacific show a faster CO2 rise due to weaker land carbon sinks, particularly in the tropics, with a partial offset by stronger net uptake by oceans. The opposite happens in years with cool Pacific SST anomalies. This relationship holds for small ENSO SST anomalies as well as large ones and is robust enough for the annual CO2 growth rate anomaly to be highly predictable on the basis of SST observations and forecasts. Generally, variability in the land‐atmosphere carbon flux is mainly driven by physiological processes (photosynthesis and/or respiration), with a smaller contribution from fire. Fire was important in the 1997–1998 El Niño, making a major contribution to the CO2 rise, which can be viewed as anthropogenic in nature since the ignition was caused by humans. However, in the 2015–2016 El Niño event, the change in land carbon flux was mainly due to physiological processes, particularly reduced productivity. In the oceans, El Niño conditions involve decreased upwelling of carbon in the equatorial Pacific due to a weakening of the trade winds, causing this region to become a weaker sink of CO2, or near neutral if the El Niño event is strong. The year‐to‐year variations in the rate of CO2 rise can be successfully reconstructed and predicted on the basis of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. ENSO‐CO2 relationships may also provide an emergent constraint on the strength of climate‐carbon cycle feedbacks on future anthropogenic climate change

Drivers of column-average CO_2 variability at Southern Hemispheric Total Carbon Column Observing Network sites

We investigate factors that drive the variability in total column CO_2 at the Total Carbon Column Observing Network sites in the Southern Hemisphere using fluxes tagged by process and by source region from the CarbonTracker analysed product as well as the Simple Biosphere model. We show that the terrestrial biosphere is the largest driver of variability in the Southern Hemisphere column CO_2. However, it does not dominate in the same fashion as in the Northern Hemisphere. Local- and hemispheric-scale biomass burning can also play an important role, particularly at the tropical site, Darwin. The magnitude of seasonal variability in the column-average dry-air mole fraction of CO_2, X_CO_2, is also much smaller in the Southern Hemisphere and comparable in magnitude to the annual increase. Comparison of measurements to the model simulations highlights that there is some discrepancy between the two time series, especially in the early part of the Darwin data record. We show that this mismatch is most likely due to erroneously estimated local fluxes in the Australian tropical region, which are associated with enhanced photosynthesis caused by early rainfall during the tropical monsoon season

Inverse estimates of the oceanic sources and sinks of natural CO2 and the implied oceanic carbon transport

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21 (2007): , doi:10.1029/2006GB002751.We use an inverse method to estimate the global-scale pattern of the air-sea flux of natural CO2, i.e., the component of the CO2 flux due to the natural carbon cycle that already existed in preindustrial times, on the basis of ocean interior observations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other tracers, from which we estimate ΔC gasex , i.e., the component of the observed DIC that is due to the gas exchange of natural CO2. We employ a suite of 10 different Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) to quantify the error arising from uncertainties in the modeled transport required to link the interior ocean observations to the surface fluxes. The results from the contributing OGCMs are weighted using a model skill score based on a comparison of each model's simulated natural radiocarbon with observations. We find a pattern of air-sea flux of natural CO2 characterized by outgassing in the Southern Ocean between 44°S and 59°S, vigorous uptake at midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and strong outgassing in the tropics. In the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics, the inverse estimates generally agree closely with the natural CO2 flux results from forward simulations of coupled OGCM-biogeochemistry models undertaken as part of the second phase of the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). The OCMIP-2 simulations find far less air-sea exchange than the inversion south of 20°S, but more recent forward OGCM studies are in better agreement with the inverse estimates in the Southern Hemisphere. The strong source and sink pattern south of 20°S was not apparent in an earlier inversion study, because the choice of region boundaries led to a partial cancellation of the sources and sinks. We show that the inversely estimated flux pattern is clearly traceable to gradients in the observed ΔC gasex , and that it is relatively insensitive to the choice of OGCM or potential biases in ΔC gasex . Our inverse estimates imply a southward interhemispheric transport of 0.31 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1, most of which occurs in the Atlantic. This is considerably smaller than the 1 Pg C yr−1 of Northern Hemisphere uptake that has been inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations during the 1980s and 1990s, which supports the hypothesis of a Northern Hemisphere terrestrial sink.This research was financially supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NAG5-12528. N. G. also acknowledges support by the National Science Foundation (OCE-0137274). Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, acknowledges support by the European Union through the Integrated Project CarboOcean and the Swiss National Science Foundation

Episodic Southern Ocean heat loss and its mixed layer impacts revealed by the farthest south multiyear surface flux mooring

The Ocean Observatories Initiative air‐sea flux mooring deployed at 54.08°S, 89.67°W, in the southeast Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, is the farthest south long‐term open ocean flux mooring ever deployed. Mooring observations (February 2015 to August 2017) provide the first in situ quantification of annual net air‐sea heat exchange from one of the prime Subantarctic Mode Water formation regions. Episodic turbulent heat loss events (reaching a daily mean net flux of −294 W/m2) generally occur when northeastward winds bring relatively cold, dry air to the mooring location, leading to large air‐sea temperature and humidity differences. Wintertime heat loss events promote deep mixed layer formation that lead to Subantarctic Mode Water formation. However, these processes have strong interannual variability; a higher frequency of 2 σ and 3 σ turbulent heat loss events in winter 2015 led to deep mixed layers (>300 m), which were nonexistent in winter 2016

Holocene dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds and possible links to CO2 outgassing

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) play an important role in regulating the capacity of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. They modulate upwelling of carbon-rich deep water and, with sea ice, determine the ocean surface area available for air–sea gas exchange. Some models indicate that the current strengthening and poleward shift of these winds will weaken the carbon sink. If correct, centennial- to millennial-scale reconstructions of the SHW intensity should be linked with past changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and sea ice. Here we present a 12,300-year reconstruction of wind strength based on three independent proxies that track inputs of sea-salt aerosols and minerogenic particles accumulating in lake sediments on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Between about 12.1 thousand years ago (ka) and 11.2 ka, and since about 7 ka, the wind intensities were above their long-term mean and corresponded with increasing atmospheric CO2. Conversely, from about 11.2 to 7.2 ka, the wind intensities were below their long-term mean and corresponded with decreasing atmospheric CO2. These observations are consistent with model inferences of enhanced SHW contributing to the long-term outgassing of CO2 from the Southern Ocean

Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science

Why a chapter on Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science in this book? SOLAS science by its nature deals with interactions that occur: across a wide spectrum of time and space scales, involve gases and particles, between the ocean and the atmosphere, across many disciplines including chemistry, biology, optics, physics, mathematics, computing, socio-economics and consequently interactions between many different scientists and across scientific generations. This chapter provides a guide through the remarkable diversity of cross-cutting approaches and tools in the gigantic puzzle of the SOLAS realm. Here we overview the existing prime components of atmospheric and oceanic observing systems, with the acquisition of ocean–atmosphere observables either from in situ or from satellites, the rich hierarchy of models to test our knowledge of Earth System functioning, and the tremendous efforts accomplished over the last decade within the COST Action 735 and SOLAS Integration project frameworks to understand, as best we can, the current physical and biogeochemical state of the atmosphere and ocean commons. A few SOLAS integrative studies illustrate the full meaning of interactions, paving the way for even tighter connections between thematic fields. Ultimately, SOLAS research will also develop with an enhanced consideration of societal demand while preserving fundamental research coherency. The exchange of energy, gases and particles across the air-sea interface is controlled by a variety of biological, chemical and physical processes that operate across broad spatial and temporal scales. These processes influence the composition, biogeochemical and chemical properties of both the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers and ultimately shape the Earth system response to climate and environmental change, as detailed in the previous four chapters. In this cross-cutting chapter we present some of the SOLAS achievements over the last decade in terms of integration, upscaling observational information from process-oriented studies and expeditionary research with key tools such as remote sensing and modelling. Here we do not pretend to encompass the entire legacy of SOLAS efforts but rather offer a selective view of some of the major integrative SOLAS studies that combined available pieces of the immense jigsaw puzzle. These include, for instance, COST efforts to build up global climatologies of SOLAS relevant parameters such as dimethyl sulphide, interconnection between volcanic ash and ecosystem response in the eastern subarctic North Pacific, optimal strategy to derive basin-scale CO2 uptake with good precision, or significant reduction of the uncertainties in sea-salt aerosol source functions. Predicting the future trajectory of Earth’s climate and habitability is the main task ahead. Some possible routes for the SOLAS scientific community to reach this overarching goal conclude the chapter

Comparison of CO₂ fluxes estimated using atmospheric and oceanic inversions, and role of fluxes and their interannual variability in simulating atmospheric CO₂ concentrations

International audienceWe use a time-dependent inverse (TDI) model to estimate regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 from 64 and then 22 regions based on atmospheric CO2 observations at 87 stations. The air-sea fluxes from the 64-region atmospheric-CO2 inversion are compared with fluxes from an analogous ocean inversion that uses ocean interior observations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other tracers and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). We find that, unlike previous atmospheric inversions, our flux estimates in the southern hemisphere are generally in good agreement with the results from the ocean inversion, which gives us added confidence in our flux estimates. In addition, a forward tracer transport model (TTM) is used to simulate the observed CO2 concentrations using (1) estimates of fossil fuel emissions and a priori estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic fluxes of CO2, and (2) two sets of TDI model corrected fluxes. The TTM simulations of TDI model corrected fluxes show improvements in fitting the observed interannual variability in growth rates and seasonal cycles in atmospheric CO2. Our analysis suggests that the use of interannually varying (IAV) meteorology and a larger observational network have helped to capture the regional representation and interannual variabilities in CO2 fluxes realistically