Quantitative DCE-MRI demonstrates increased blood perfusion in Hoffa’s fat pad signal abnormalities in knee osteoarthritis, but not in patellofemoral pain

Objective: Infrapatellar fat pad (IPFP) fat-suppressed T2 (T2FS) hyperintense regions on MRI are an important imaging feature of knee osteoarthritis (OA) and are thought to represent inflammation. These regions are also common in non-OA subjects, and may not always be linked to inflammation. Our aim was to evaluate quantitative blood perfusion parameters, as surrogate measure of inflammation, within T2FS-hyperintense regions in patients with OA, with patellofemoral pain (PFP) (supposed OA precursor), and control subjects. Methods: Twenty-two knee OA patients, 35 PFP patients and 43 healthy controls were included and underwent MRI, comprising T2 and DCE-MRI sequences. T2FS-hyperintense IPFP regions were delineated and a reference region was drawn in adjacent IPFP tissue with normal signal intensity. After fitting the extended Tofts pharmacokinetic model, quantitative DCE-MRI perfusion parameters were compared between the two regions within subjects in each subgroup, using a paired Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Results: T2FS-hyperintense IPFP regions were present in 16 of 22 (73%) OA patients, 13 of 35 (37%) PFP patients, and 14 of 43 (33%) controls. DCE-MRI perfusion parameters were significantly different between regions with and without a T2FS-hyperintense signal in OA patients, demonstrating higher Ktrans compared to normal IFPF tissue (0.039 min−1 versus 0.025 min−1, p = 0.017) and higher Ve (0.157 versus 0.119, p = 0.010). For PFP patients and controls no significant differences were found. Conclusions: IPFP T2FS-hyperintense regions are associated with higher perfusion in knee OA patients in contrast to identically appearing regions in PFP patients and controls, pointing towards an inflammatory pathogenesis in OA only. Key Points: • Morphologically identical appearing T2FS-hyperintense infrapatellar fat pad regions show different perfusion in healthy subjects, subjects with patellofemoral pain, and subjects with knee osteoarthritis. • Elevated DCE-MRI perfusion parameters within T2FS-hyperintense infrapatellar fat pad regions in patients with osteoarthritis suggest an inflammatory pathogenesis in osteoarthritis, but not in patellofemoral pain and healthy subjects

Reasons and predictors of discontinuation of running after a running program for novice runners

Objectives: To determine the proportion of participants of a running program for novice runners that discontinued running and investigate the main reasons to discontinue and characteristics associated with discontinuation. Design: Prospective cohort study. Methods: The study included 774 participants of Start to Run, a 6-week running program for novice runners. Before the start of the program, participants filled-in a baseline questionnaire to collect information on demographics, physical activity and perceived health. The 26-weeks follow-up questionnaire was used to obtain information on the continuation of running (yes/no) and main reasons for discontinuation. To determine predictors for discontinuation of running, multivariable logistic regression was performed. Results: Within 26 weeks after the start of the 6-week running program, 29.5% of the novice runners (n = 225) had stopped running. The main reason for discontinuation was a running-related injury (n = 108, 48%). Being female (OR 1.74; 95% CI 1.13–2.68), being unsure about the continuation of running after the program (OR 2.06; 95% CI 1.31–3.24) and (almost) no alcohol use (OR 1.62; 95%CI 1.11–2.37) were associated with a higher chance of discontinuation of running. Previous running experience less than one year previously (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.26–0.83) and a higher score on the RAND-36 subscale physical functioning (OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.96–0.99) were associated with a lower chance of discontinuation. Conclusions: In this group of novice runners, almost one-third stopped running within six months. A running-related injury was the main reason to stop running. Women with a low perceived physical functioning and without running experience were prone to discontinue running

Critical design considerations for time-to-event endpoints in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical trials

Background: Funding and resources for low prevalent neurodegenerative disorders such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are limited, and optimising their use is vital for efficient drug development. In this study, we review the design assumptions for pivotal ALS clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints and provide optimised settings for future trials. Methods: We extracted design settings from 13 completed placebo-controlled trials. Optimal assumptions were estimated using parametric survival models in individual participant data (n=4991). Designs were compared in terms of sample size, trial duration, drug use and costs. Results: Previous trials overestimated the hazard rate by 18.9% (95% CI 3.4% to 34.5%, p=0.021). The median expected HR was 0.56 (range 0.33–0.66). Additionally, we found evidence for an increasing mean hazard rate over time (Weibull shape parameter of 2.03, 95% CI 1.93 to 2.15, p<0.001), which affects the design and planning of future clinical trials. Incorporating accrual time and assuming an increasing hazard rate at the design stage reduced sample size by 33.2% (95% CI 27.9 to 39.4), trial duration by 17.4% (95% CI 11.6 to 23.3), drug use by 14.3% (95% CI 9.6 to 19.0) and follow-up costs by 21.2% (95% CI 15.6 to 26.8). Conclusions: Implementing distributional knowledge and incorporating accrual at the design stage could achieve large gains in the efficiency of ALS clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints. We provide an open-source platform that helps investigators to make more accurate sample size calculations and optimise the use of their available resources

Quantitative volume and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI derived perfusion of the infrapatellar fat pad in patellofemoral pain

Background: Patellofemoral pain (PFP) is a common knee condition and possible precursor of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Inflammation, leading to an increased perfusion, or increased volume of the infrapatellar fat pad (IPFP) may induce knee pain. The aim of the study was to compare quantitative dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) parameters, as imaging biomarkers of inflammation, and volume of the IPFP between patients with PFP and controls and between patients with and without IPFP edema or joint effusion. Methods: Patients with PFP and healthy controls were included and underwent non-fat suppressed 3D fast-spoiled gradient-echo (FSPGR) and DCE-MRI. Image registration was applied to correct for motion. The IPFP was delineated on FSPGR using Horos software. Volume was calculated and quantitative perfusion parameters were extracted by fitting extended Tofts' pharmacokinetic model. Differences in volume and DCE-MRI parameters between patients and controls were tested by linear regression analyses. IPFP edema and effusion were analyzed identically. Results: Forty-three controls and 35 PFP patients were included. Mean IPFP volume was 26.04 (4.18) mL in control subjects and 27.52 (5.37) mL in patients. Median Ktrans was 0.017 (0.016) min-1 in control subjects and 0.016 (0.020) min-1 in patients. None of the differences in volume and perfusion parameters were statistically significant. Knees with effusion showed a higher perfusion of the IPFP compared to knees without effusion in patients only. Conclusions: The IPFP has been implicated as source of knee pain, but higher DCE-MR blood perfusion, an imaging biomarker of inflammation, and larger volume are not associated with PFP. Patient's knees with effusion showed a higher perfusion, pointing towards inflammation

Targeted Genetic Screen in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Reveals Novel Genetic Variants with Synergistic Effect on Clinical Phenotype

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is underpinned by an oligogenic rare variant architecture. Identified genetic variants of ALS include RNA-binding proteins containing prion-like domains (PrLDs). We hypothesized that screening genes encoding additional similar proteins will yield novel genetic causes of ALS. The most common genetic variant of ALS patients is a G4C2-repeat expansion within C9ORF72. We have shown that G4C2-repeat RNA sequesters RNA-binding proteins. A logical consequence of this is that loss-of-function mutations in G4C2-binding partners might contribute to ALS pathogenesis independently of and/or synergistically with C9ORF72 expansions. Targeted sequencing of genomic DNA encoding either RNA-binding proteins or known ALS genes (n = 274 genes) was performed in ALS patients to identify rare deleterious genetic variants and explore genotype-phenotype relationships. Genomic DNA was extracted from 103 ALS patients including 42 familial ALS patients and 61 young-onset (average age of onset 41 years) sporadic ALS patients; patients were chosen to maximize the probability of identifying genetic causes of ALS. Thirteen patients carried a G4C2-repeat expansion of C9ORF72. We identified 42 patients with rare deleterious variants; 6 patients carried more than one variant. Twelve mutations were discovered in known ALS genes which served as a validation of our strategy. Rare deleterious variants in RNA-binding proteins were significantly enriched in ALS patients compared to control frequencies (p = 5.31E-18). Nineteen patients featured at least one variant in a RNA-binding protein containing a PrLD. The number of variants per patient correlated with rate of disease progression (t-test, p = 0.033). We identified eighteen patients with a single variant in a G4C2-repeat binding protein. Patients with a G4C2-binding protein variant in combination with a C9ORF72 expansion had a significantly faster disease course (t-test, p = 0.025). Our data are consistent with an oligogenic model of ALS. We provide evidence for a number of entirely novel genetic variants of ALS caused by mutations in RNA-binding proteins. Moreover we show that these mutations act synergistically with each other and with C9ORF72 expansions to modify the clinical phenotype of ALS. A key finding is that this synergy is present only between functionally interacting variants. This work has significant implications for ALS therapy development

Genome-wide Analyses Identify KIF5A as a Novel ALS Gene

To identify novel genes associated with ALS, we undertook two lines of investigation. We carried out a genome-wide association study comparing 20,806 ALS cases and 59,804 controls. Independently, we performed a rare variant burden analysis comparing 1,138 index familial ALS cases and 19,494 controls. Through both approaches, we identified kinesin family member 5A (KIF5A) as a novel gene associated with ALS. Interestingly, mutations predominantly in the N-terminal motor domain of KIF5A are causative for two neurodegenerative diseases: hereditary spastic paraplegia (SPG10) and Charcot-Marie-Tooth type 2 (CMT2). In contrast, ALS-associated mutations are primarily located at the C-terminal cargo-binding tail domain and patients harboring loss-of-function mutations displayed an extended survival relative to typical ALS cases. Taken together, these results broaden the phenotype spectrum resulting from mutations in KIF5A and strengthen the role of cytoskeletal defects in the pathogenesis of ALS.Peer reviewe

Prognosis for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: development and validation of a personalised prediction model

Summary Background Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relentlessly progressive, fatal motor neuron disease with a variable natural history. There are no accurate models that predict the disease course and outcomes, which complicates risk assessment and counselling for individual patients, stratification of patients for trials, and timing of interventions. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting a composite survival endpoint for individual patients with ALS. Methods We obtained data for patients from 14 specialised ALS centres (each one designated as a cohort) in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, and the UK. All patients were diagnosed in the centres after excluding other diagnoses and classified according to revised El Escorial criteria. We assessed 16 patient characteristics as potential predictors of a composite survival outcome (time between onset of symptoms and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day, tracheostomy, or death) and applied backward elimination with bootstrapping in the largest population-based dataset for predictor selection. Data were gathered on the day of diagnosis or as soon as possible thereafter. Predictors that were selected in more than 70% of the bootstrap resamples were used to develop a multivariable Royston-Parmar model for predicting the composite survival outcome in individual patients. We assessed the generalisability of the model by estimating heterogeneity of predictive accuracy across external populations (ie, populations not used to develop the model) using internal–external cross-validation, and quantified the discrimination using the concordance (c) statistic (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve) and calibration using a calibration slope. Findings Data were collected between Jan 1, 1992, and Sept 22, 2016 (the largest data-set included data from 1936 patients). The median follow-up time was 97·5 months (IQR 52·9–168·5). Eight candidate predictors entered the prediction model: bulbar versus non-bulbar onset (univariable hazard ratio [HR] 1·71, 95% CI 1·63–1·79), age at onset (1·03, 1·03–1·03), definite versus probable or possible ALS (1·47, 1·39–1·55), diagnostic delay (0·52, 0·51–0·53), forced vital capacity (HR 0·99, 0·99–0·99), progression rate (6·33, 5·92–6·76), frontotemporal dementia (1·34, 1·20–1·50), and presence of a C9orf72 repeat expansion (1·45, 1·31–1·61), all p<0·0001. The c statistic for external predictive accuracy of the model was 0·78 (95% CI 0·77–0·80; 95% prediction interval [PI] 0·74–0·82) and the calibration slope was 1·01 (95% CI 0·95–1·07; 95% PI 0·83–1·18). The model was used to define five groups with distinct median predicted (SE) and observed (SE) times in months from symptom onset to the composite survival outcome: very short 17·7 (0·20), 16·5 (0·23); short 25·3 (0·06), 25·2 (0·35); intermediate 32·2 (0·09), 32·8 (0·46); long 43·7 (0·21), 44·6 (0·74); and very long 91·0 (1·84), 85·6 (1·96). Interpretation We have developed an externally validated model to predict survival without tracheostomy and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day in European patients with ALS. This model could be applied to individualised patient management, counselling, and future trial design, but to maximise the benefit and prevent harm it is intended to be used by medical doctors only. Funding Netherlands ALS Foundation

Association of NIPA1 repeat expansions with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in a large international cohort

NIPA1 (nonimprinted in Prader-Willi/Angelman syndrome 1) mutations are known to cause hereditary spastic paraplegia type 6, a neurodegenerative disease that phenotypically overlaps to some extent with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Previously, a genomewide screen for copy number variants found an association with rare deletions in NIPA1 and ALS, and subsequent genetic analyses revealed that long (or expanded) polyalanine repeats in NIPA1 convey increased ALS susceptibility. We set out to perform a large-scale replication study to further investigate the role of NIPA1 polyalanine expansions with ALS, in which we characterized NIPA1 repeat size in an independent international cohort of 3955 patients with ALS and 2276 unaffected controls and combined our results with previous reports. Meta-analysis on a total of 6245 patients with ALS and 5051 controls showed an overall increased risk of ALS in those with expanded (>8) GCG repeat length (odds ratio = 1.50, p = 3.8×10-5). Together with previous reports, these findings provide evidence for an association of an expanded polyalanine repeat in NIPA1 and ALS

Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two‐dimensional hydraulic modelling approach

Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one‐dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two‐dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set‐up in HEC‐RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 103 floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high‐resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo‐DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non‐exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m3/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management

The NLstart2run study: Training-related factors associated with running-related injuries in novice runners

Objectives: The incidence of running-related injuries is high. Some risk factors for injury were identified in novice runners, however, not much is known about the effect of training factors on injury risk. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the associations between training factors and running-related injuries in novice runners, taking the time varying nature of these training-related factors into account. Design: Prospective cohort study. Methods: 1696 participants completed weekly diaries on running exposure and injuries during a 6-week running program for novice runners. Total running volume (min), frequency and mean intensity (Rate of Perceived Exertion) were calculated for the seven days prior to each training session. The association of these time-varying variables with injury was determined in an extended Cox regression analysis. Results: The results of the multivariable analysis showed that running with a higher intensity in the previous week was associated with a higher injury risk. Running frequency was not significantly associated with injury, however a trend towards running three times per week being more hazardous than two times could be observed. Finally, lower running volume was associated with a higher risk of sustaining an injury. Conclusions: These results suggest that running more than 60 min at a lower intensity is least injurious. This finding is contrary to our expectations and is presumably the result of other factors. Therefore, the findings should not be used plainly as a guideline for novices. More research is needed to establish the person-specific training patterns that are associated with injury. (C) 2015 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved