Strong quasi-stationary wintertime atmospheric surface pressure anomalies drive a dipole pattern in the Subantarctic Mode Water formation

The deepest wintertime (Jul-Sep) mixed layers associated with Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) formation develop in the Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean. In these two sectors the dominant interannual variability of both deep wintertime mixed layers and SAMW volume is a east-west dipole pattern in each basin. The variability of these dipoles are strongly correlated with the interannual variability of overlying winter quasi-stationary mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies. Anomalously strong positive MSLP anomalies are found to result in the deepening of the wintertime mixed layers and an increase in the SAMW formation in the eastern parts of the dipoles in the Pacific and Indian sectors. These effects are due to enhanced cold southerly meridional winds, strengthened zonal winds and increased surface ocean heat loss. The opposite occurs in the western parts of the dipoles in these sectors. Conversely, strong negative MSLP anomalies result in shoaling (deepening) of the wintertime mixed layers and a decrease (increase) in SAMW formation in the eastern (western) regions. The MSLP variability of the Pacific and Indian basin anomalies are not always in phase, especially in years with a strong El Niño, resulting in different patterns of SAMW formation in the western vs. eastern parts of the Indian and Pacific sectors. Strong isopycnal depth and thickness anomalies develop in the SAMW density range in years with strong MSLP anomalies. When advected eastward, they act to precondition downstream SAMW formation in the subsequent winter

More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica’s endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region

The effects of enhanced sea ice export from the Ross Sea on recent cooling and freshening of the Southeast Pacific

The top 2000 m of the Southern Ocean has freshened and warmed over recent decades. However, the high-latitude (south of 50°S) southeast Pacific was observed to be cooler and fresher in the years 2008-2010 compared to 2005-2007 over a wide depth range including surface, mode, and intermediate waters. The causes and impacts of this event are analyzed using the ocean—sea-ice data-assimilating Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) and observationally based products. In 2008-2010, a strong positive Southern Annular Mode coincided with a negative El Niño Southern Oscillation and a deep Amundsen Sea Low. Enhanced meridional winds drove strong sea ice export from the eastern Ross Sea, bringing large amounts of ice to the Amundsen Sea ice edge. In 2008, together with increased precipitation, this introduced a strong freshwater anomaly that was advected eastward by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), mixing along the way. This anomaly entered the ocean interior not only as Antarctic Intermediate Water, but also as lighter Southeast Pacific Subantarctic Mode Water (SEPSAMW). A numerical particle release experiment carried out in SOSE , showed that the Ross Sea sector was the dominant source of particles reaching the SEPSAMW formation region. This suggests that large-scale climate fluctuations can induce strong interannual variability of volume and properties of SEPSAMW. These fluctuations act at different time scales: instantaneously via direct forcing, and also lagged over advective time scales of several years from upstream regions

Heat distribution in the Southeast Pacific is only weakly sensitive to high-latitude heat flux and wind stress.

The Southern Ocean features regionally‐varying ventilation pathways that transport heat and carbon from the surface ocean to the interior thermocline on timescales of decades to centuries, but the factors that control the distribution of heat along these pathways are not well understood. In this study, we use a global ocean state estimate (ECCOv4) to (1) define the recently ventilated interior Pacific (RVP) using numerical passive tracer experiments over a 10‐year period and (2) use an adjoint approach to calculate the sensitivities of the RVP heat content (RVPh) to changes in net heat flux and wind stress. We find that RVPh is most sensitive to local heat flux and wind stress anomalies north of the sea surface height contours that delineate the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with especially high sensitivities over the South Pacific Gyre. Surprisingly, RVPh is not especially sensitive to changes at higher latitudes. We perform a set of step response experiments over the South Pacific Gyre, the subduction region, and the high‐latitude SO. In consistency with the adjoint sensitivity fields, RVPh is most sensitive to wind stress curl over the subtropical gyre, which alter isopycnal heave, and it is only weakly sensitive to changes at higher latitudes. Our results suggest that despite the localized nature of mode water subduction hotspots, changes in basin‐scale pressure gradients are an important controlling factor on RVPh. Because basin‐scale wind stress is expected to change in the coming decades to centuries, our results may have implications for climate, via the atmosphere/ocean partitioning of heat

High-latitude ocean ventilation and its role in Earth's climate transitions

The processes regulating ocean ventilation at high latitudes are re-examined based on a range of observations spanning all scales of ocean circulation, from the centimetre scales of turbulence to the basin scales of gyres. It is argued that high-latitude ocean ventilation is controlled by mechanisms that differ in fundamental ways from those that set the overturning circulation. This is contrary to the assumption of broad equivalence between the two that is commonly adopted in interpreting the role of the high-latitude oceans in Earth's climate transitions. Illustrations of how recognizing this distinction may change our view of the ocean's role in the climate system are offered

How does Subantarctic Mode Water ventilate the Southern Hemisphere subtropics?

In several regions north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), deep wintertime convection refreshes pools of weakly stratified subsurface water collectively referred to as Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). SAMW ventilates the subtropical thermocline on decadal timescales, providing nutrients for low-latitude productivity and potentially trapping anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean interior for centuries. In this work, we investigate the spatial structure and timescales of mode water export and associated thermocline ventilation. We use passive tracers in an eddy-permitting, observationally-informed Southern Ocean model to identify the pathways followed by mode waters between their formation regions and the areas where they first enter the subtropics. We find that the pathways followed by the mode water tracers are largely set by the mean geostrophic circulation. Export from the Indian and Central Pacific mode water pools is primarily driven by large-scale gyre circulation, whereas export from the Australian and Atlantic pools is heavily influenced by the ACC. Export from the Eastern Pacific mode water pool is driven by a combination of deep boundary currents and subtropical gyre circulation. More than 50% of each mode water tracer reaches the subtropical thermocline within 50 years, with significant variability between pools. The Eastern Pacific pathway is especially efficient, with roughly 80% entering the subtropical thermocline within 50 years. The time required for 50% of the mode water tracers to leave the Southern Ocean domain varies significantly between mode water pools, from 9 years for the Indian mode water pool to roughly 40 years for the Central Pacific mode water poo

Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea ice changes

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is pivotal for oceanic heat and carbon sequestrations on multidecadal-to-millennial timescales. The Weddell Sea contributes nearly a half of global AABW through Weddell Sea Deep Water (WSDW) and denser underlying Weddell Sea Bottom Water (WSBW) that are form on the continental shelves via sea ice production. Here we report an observed 30% reduction of WSBW volume since 1992, with the largest decrease in the densest classes. This is likely driven by a multidecadal reduction in dense water production over southern continental shelf associated with a >40% decline in the sea ice formation rate. The ice production decrease is driven by northerly wind trend, related to a phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation since the early 1990s, superposed by Amundsen Sea Low intrinsic variability. These results reveal key influences on exported AABW to the Atlantic abyss and their sensitivity to large-scale, multidecadal climate variability

Circulating heart failure biomarkers beyond natriuretic peptides:review from the Biomarker Study Group of the Heart Failure Association (HFA), European Society of Cardiology (ESC)

New biomarkers are being evaluated for their ability to advance the management of patients with heart failure. Despite a large pool of interesting candidate biomarkers, besides natriuretic peptides virtually none have succeeded in being applied into the clinical setting. In this review, we examine the most promising emerging candidates for clinical assessment and management of patients with heart failure. We discuss high-sensitivity cardiac troponins (Tn), procalcitonin, novel kidney markers, soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2), galectin-3, growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), cluster of differentiation 146 (CD146), neprilysin, adrenomedullin (ADM), and also discuss proteomics and genetic-based risk scores. We focused on guidance and assistance with daily clinical care decision-making. For each biomarker, analytical considerations are discussed, as well as performance regarding diagnosis and prognosis. Furthermore, we discuss potential implementation in clinical algorithms and in ongoing clinical trials.</p

Unsupervised classification identifies coherent thermohaline structures in the Weddell Gyre region

The Weddell Gyre is a major feature of the Southern Ocean and an important component of the planetary climate system; it regulates air–sea exchanges, controls the formation of deep and bottom waters, and hosts upwelling of relatively warm subsurface waters. It is characterised by low sea surface temperatures, ubiquitous sea ice formation, and widespread salt stratification that stabilises the water column. Observing the Weddell Gyre is challenging, as it is extremely remote and largely covered with sea ice. At present, it is one of the most poorly sampled regions of the global ocean, highlighting the need to extract as much value as possible from existing observations. Here, we apply a profile classification model (PCM), which is an unsupervised classification technique, to a Weddell Gyre profile dataset to identify coherent regimes in temperature and salinity. We find that, despite not being given any positional information, the PCM identifies four spatially coherent thermohaline domains that can be described as follows: (1) a circumpolar class, (2) a transition region between the circumpolar waters and the Weddell Gyre, (3) a gyre edge class with northern and southern branches, and (4) a gyre core class. PCM highlights, in an objective and interpretable way, both expected and underappreciated structures in the Weddell Gyre dataset. For instance, PCM identifies the inflow of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) across the eastern boundary, the presence of the Weddell–Scotia Confluence waters, and structured spatial variability in mixing between Winter Water and CDW. PCM offers a useful complement to existing expertise-driven approaches for characterising the physical configuration and variability of oceanographic regions, helping to identify coherent thermohaline structures and the boundaries between them

Thermal sensitivity of field metabolic rate predicts differential futures for bluefin tuna juveniles across the Atlantic Ocean

Changing environmental temperatures impact the physiological performance of fishes, and consequently their distributions. A mechanistic understanding of the linkages between experienced temperature and the physiological response expressed within complex natural environments is often lacking, hampering efforts to project impacts especially when future conditions exceed previous experience. In this study, we use natural chemical tracers to determine the individual experienced temperatures and expressed field metabolic rates of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) during their first year of life. Our findings reveal that the tuna exhibit a preference for temperatures 2–4 °C lower than those that maximise field metabolic rates, thereby avoiding temperatures warm enough to limit metabolic performance. Based on current IPCC projections, our results indicate that historically-important spawning and nursery grounds for bluefin tuna will become thermally limiting due to warming within the next 50 years. However, limiting global warming to below 2 °C would preserve habitat conditions in the Mediterranean Sea for this species. Our approach, which is based on field observations, provides predictions of animal performance and behaviour that are not constrained by laboratory conditions, and can be extended to any marine teleost species for which otoliths are available