Resource windfalls, innovation, and growth

This paper explores the connection between resource abundance and innovation, as a transmission mechanism that can elucidate part of the resource curse hypothesis, i.e. the observed negative impact of resource wealth on income growth. We develop a variation of the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model with endogenous growth to explain the phenomenon. In this model, consumers trade off leisure versus consumption, and firms trade off innovation efforts versus manufacturing. We show that an increase in resource income frustrates economic growth in two ways: directly by reducing work effort and indirectly by inducing a smaller proportion of the labor force to engage in innovation

A hybrid landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator for transition probabilities in partially non-Markov multi-state models

Multi-state models are increasingly being used to model complex epidemiological and clinical outcomes over time. It is common to assume that the models are Markov, but the assumption can often be unrealistic. The Markov assumption is seldomly checked and violations can lead to biased estimation for many parameters of interest. As argued by Datta and Satten (2001), the Aalen-Johansen estimator of occupation probabilities is consistent also in the non-Markov case. Putter and Spitoni (2018) exploit this fact to construct a consistent estimator of state transition probabilities, the landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator, which does not rely on the Markov assumption. A disadvantage of landmarking is data reduction, leading to a loss of power. This is problematic for less traveled transitions, and undesirable when such transitions indeed exhibit Markov behaviour. Using a framework of partially non-Markov multi-state models we suggest a hybrid landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator for transition probabilities. The proposed estimator is a compromise between regular Aalen-Johansen and landmark estimation, using transition specific landmarking, and can drastically improve statistical power. The methods are compared in a simulation study and in a real data application modelling individual transitions between states of sick leave, disability, education, work and unemployment. In the application, a birth cohort of 184951 Norwegian men are followed for 14 years from the year they turn 21, using data from national registries

A hybrid landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator for transition probabilities in partially non-Markov multi-state models

Multi-state models are increasingly being used to model complex epidemiological and clinical outcomes over time. It is common to assume that the models are Markov, but the assumption can often be unrealistic. The Markov assumption is seldomly checked and violations can lead to biased estimation of many parameters of interest. This is a well known problem for the standard Aalen-Johansen estimator of transition probabilities and several alternative estimators, not relying on the Markov assumption, have been suggested. A particularly simple approach known as landmarking have resulted in the Landmark-Aalen-Johansen estimator. Since landmarking is a stratification method a disadvantage of landmarking is data reduction, leading to a loss of power. This is problematic for "less traveled" transitions, and undesirable when such transitions indeed exhibit Markov behaviour. Introducing the concept of partially non-Markov multi-state models, we suggest a hybrid landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator for transition probabilities. We also show how non-Markov transitions can be identified using a testing procedure. The proposed estimator is a compromise between regular Aalen-Johansen and landmark estimation, using transition specific landmarking, and can drastically improve statistical power. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent, but that the traditional variance estimator can underestimate the variance of both the hybrid and landmark estimator. Bootstrapping is therefore recommended. The methods are compared in a simulation study and in a real data application using registry data to model individual transitions for a birth cohort of 184 951 Norwegian men between states of sick leave, disability, education, work and unemployment.Development and application of statistical models for medical scientific researc

Top predators in relation to bathymetry, ice and krill during austral winter in Marguerite Bay, Antarctica

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2007. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 55 (2008): 485-499, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2007.11.006.A key hypothesis guiding the U.S. Southern Ocean Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (U.S. SO GLOBEC) program is that deep across-shelf troughs facilitate the transport of warm and nutrient-rich waters onto the continental shelf of the Western Antarctic Peninsula, resulting in enhanced winter production and prey availability to top predators. We tested aspects of this hypothesis during austral winter by assessing the distribution of the resident pack-ice top predators in relation to these deep across-shelf troughs and by investigating associations between top predators and their prey. Surveys were conducted July-August 2001 and August-September 2002 in Marguerite Bay, Antarctica, with a focus on the main across-shelf trough in the bay, Marguerite Trough. The common pack-ice seabird species were snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea, 1.2 individuals km-2), Antarctic petrel (Thalassoica antarctica, 0.3 individuals km-2), and Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae, 0.5 individuals km-2). The most common pack-ice pinniped was crabeater seal (Lobodon carcinophagus). During both winters, snow and Antarctic petrels were associated with low sea ice concentrations independent of Marguerite Trough, while Adélie penguins occurred in association with this trough. Krill concentrations, both shallow and deep, were also associated with Adélie penguin and snow petrel distributions. During both winters, crabeater seal occurrence was associated with deep krill concentrations and with regions of lower chlorophyll concentration. The area of lower chlorophyll concentrations occurred in an area with complex bathymetry close to land and heavy ice concentrations. Complex or unusual bathymetry via its influence on physical and biological processes appears to be one of the keys to understanding how top predators survive during the winter in this Antarctic region.This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants No. OPP-9910096 (to C. Ribic), OPP-9910307 (to P. Wiebe), OPP-9632763, OPP-0120525, OPP-0217282 and OPP-0224727 (to W. Fraser), and a Fulbright Scholarship and Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-03-0212 (to G. Lawson)

Метафизическое значение категорий предмета и непредмета в логике, поясняемое примерами решения антиномии Рассела в теории типов и аксиоматической системе NBG

Метафизическое значение категорий предмета и непредмета в логике, поясняемое примерами решения антиномии Рассела в теории типов и аксиоматической системе NB

Review on the validity of self-report to assess work-related diseases

Self-report is an efficient and accepted means of assessing population characteristics, risk factors, and diseases. Little is known on the validity of self-reported work-related illness as an indicator of the presence of a work-related disease. This study reviews the evidence on (1) the validity of workers' self-reported illness and (2) on the validity of workers' self-assessed work relatedness of an illness. A systematic literature search was conducted in four databases (Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and OSH-Update). Two reviewers independently performed the article selection and data extraction. The methodological quality of the studies was evaluated, levels of agreement and predictive values were rated against predefined criteria, and sources of heterogeneity were explored. In 32 studies, workers' self-reports of health conditions were compared with the "reference standard" of expert opinion. We found that agreement was mainly low to moderate. Self-assessed work relatedness of a health condition was examined in only four studies, showing low-to-moderate agreement with expert assessment. The health condition, type of questionnaire, and the case definitions for both self-report and reference standards influence the results of validation studies. Workers' self-reported illness may provide valuable information on the presence of disease, although the generalizability of the findings is limited primarily to musculoskeletal and skin disorders. For case finding in a population at risk, e.g., an active workers' health surveillance program, a sensitive symptom questionnaire with a follow-up by a medical examination may be the best choice. Evidence on the validity of self-assessed work relatedness of a health condition is scarce. Adding well-developed questions to a specific medical diagnosis exploring the relationship between symptoms and work may be a good strateg

Rural High North: A High Rate of Fatal Injury and Prehospital Death

Finnmark County is the northernmost county in Norway. For several decades, the rate of mortality after injury in this sparsely inhabited region has remained above the national average. Following documentation of this discrepancy for the period 1991–1995, improvements to the trauma system were implemented. The present study aims to assess whether trauma-related mortality rates have subsequently improved. All injury-associated fatalities in Finnmark from 1995–2004 were identified retrospectively from the National Registry of Death and reviewed. Low-energy trauma in elderly individuals and poisonings were excluded. A total of 453 cases of trauma-related death occurred during the study period, and 327 of those met the inclusion criteria. Information was retrievable for 266 cases. The majority of deaths (86%) occurred in the prehospital phase. The main causes of death were suicide (33%) and road traffic accidents (21%). Drowning and snowmobile injuries accounted for an unexpectedly high proportion (12 and 8%, respectively). The time of death did not show trimodal distribution. Compared to the previous study period, there was a significant overall decline in injury-related mortality, yet there was no change in place of death, mechanism of injury, or time from injury until death. Changes in injury-related mortality cannot be linked to improvements in the trauma system. There was no change in the epidemiological patterns of injury. The high rate of on-scene mortality indicates that any major improvement in the number of injury-related deaths lies in targeted prevention

Instability of Democracy as Resource Curse

We suggest a dynamic game theoretic model to explain why resource abundance may lead to instability of democracy. Stationary Markov perfect equilibria of this game with four players – Politician, Oligarch, Autocrat and Public (voters) – are analyzed. Choosing a rate of resource rent tax, potential Autocrat competes with conventional Politician for the office, and Oligarch, the owner of the resource wealth, bribes Politician to influence her decisions. Actual Autocrat's tax policy may be different from the announced one. If the difference is large, then Public may revolt or Oligarch may organize a coup to throw Autocrat down. It is shown that the probability of democracy preservation is decreasing in the amount of resources if the institutional quality is low enough. It does not depend on the amount of resources, if the institutional quality is higher than a threshold. The level of the threshold, however, depends positively on the resource wealth. We have found also that under very low institutional quality, a paradoxical effect takes place: the probability of democracy preservation may decrease with small improvements of institutional quality. It is shown as well that Oligarch earns larger part of rent under democracy than under autocracy. This result conforms to empirical observation which is demonstrated in the paper: under low quality of institutions, democratization leads to higher inequality and inequality entails worsening of the attitude to democracy

Recognition of COVID-19 with occupational origin: a comparison between European countries

Objectives This study aims to present an overview of the formal recognition of COVID-19 as occupational disease (OD) or injury (OI) across Europe. Methods A COVID-19 questionnaire was designed by a task group within COST-funded OMEGA-NET and sent to occupational health experts of 37 countries in WHO European region, with a last update in April 2022. Results The questionnaire was filled out by experts from 35 countries. There are large differences between national systems regarding the recognition of OD and OI: 40% of countries have a list system, 57% a mixed system and one country an open system. In most countries, COVID-19 can be recognised as an OD (57%). In four countries, COVID-19 can be recognised as OI (11%) and in seven countries as either OD or OI (20%). In two countries, there is no recognition possible to date. Thirty-two countries (91%) recognise COVID-19 as OD/OI among healthcare workers. Working in certain jobs is considered proof of occupational exposure in 25 countries, contact with a colleague with confirmed infection in 19 countries, and contact with clients with confirmed infection in 21 countries. In most countries (57%), a positive PCR test is considered proof of disease. The three most common compensation benefits for COVID-19 as OI/OD are disability pension, treatment and rehabilitation. Long COVID is included in 26 countries. Conclusions COVID-19 can be recognised as OD or OI in 94% of the European countries completing this survey, across different social security and embedded occupational health systems.This publication is based on work from COST Action CA16216 (OMEGA-NET), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology)

Pharmacological blood pressure lowering for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease across different levels of blood pressure: an individual participant-level data meta-analysis

Background: The effects of pharmacological blood pressure lowering at normal or high-normal blood pressure ranges in people with or without pre-existing cardiovascular disease remains uncertain. We analysed individual participant data from randomised trials to investigate the effects of blood pressure lowering treatment on the risk of major cardiovascular events by baseline levels of systolic blood pressure. Methods: We did a meta-analysis of individual participant-level data from 48 randomised trials of pharmacological blood pressure lowering medications versus placebo or other classes of blood pressure-lowering medications, or between more versus less intensive treatment regimens, which had at least 1000 persons-years of follow-up in each group. Trials exclusively done with participants with heart failure or short-term interventions in participants with acute myocardial infarction or other acute settings were excluded. Data from 51 studies published between 1972 and 2013 were obtained by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (Oxford University, Oxford, UK). We pooled the data to investigate the stratified effects of blood pressure-lowering treatment in participants with and without prevalent cardiovascular disease (ie, any reports of stroke, myocardial infarction, or ischaemic heart disease before randomisation), overall and across seven systolic blood pressure categories (ranging from <120 to ≥170 mm Hg). The primary outcome was a major cardiovascular event (defined as a composite of fatal and non-fatal stroke, fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or ischaemic heart disease, or heart failure causing death or requiring admission to hospital), analysed as per intention to treat. Findings: Data for 344 716 participants from 48 randomised clinical trials were available for this analysis. Pre-randomisation mean systolic/diastolic blood pressures were 146/84 mm Hg in participants with previous cardiovascular disease (n=157 728) and 157/89 mm Hg in participants without previous cardiovascular disease (n=186 988). There was substantial spread in participants' blood pressure at baseline, with 31 239 (19·8%) of participants with previous cardiovascular disease and 14 928 (8·0%) of individuals without previous cardiovascular disease having a systolic blood pressure of less than 130 mm Hg. The relative effects of blood pressure-lowering treatment were proportional to the intensity of systolic blood pressure reduction. After a median 4·15 years' follow-up (Q1–Q3 2·97–4·96), 42 324 participants (12·3%) had at least one major cardiovascular event. In participants without previous cardiovascular disease at baseline, the incidence rate for developing a major cardiovascular event per 1000 person-years was 31·9 (95% CI 31·3–32·5) in the comparator group and 25·9 (25·4–26·4) in the intervention group. In participants with previous cardiovascular disease at baseline, the corresponding rates were 39·7 (95% CI 39·0–40·5) and 36·0 (95% CI 35·3–36·7), in the comparator and intervention groups, respectively. Hazard ratios (HR) associated with a reduction of systolic blood pressure by 5 mm Hg for a major cardiovascular event were 0·91, 95% CI 0·89–0·94 for partipants without previous cardiovascular disease and 0·89, 0·86–0·92, for those with previous cardiovascular disease. In stratified analyses, there was no reliable evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effects on major cardiovascular events by baseline cardiovascular disease status or systolic blood pressure categories. Interpretation: In this large-scale analysis of randomised trials, a 5 mm Hg reduction of systolic blood pressure reduced the risk of major cardiovascular events by about 10%, irrespective of previous diagnoses of cardiovascular disease, and even at normal or high–normal blood pressure values. These findings suggest that a fixed degree of pharmacological blood pressure lowering is similarly effective for primary and secondary prevention of major cardiovascular disease, even at blood pressure levels currently not considered for treatment. Physicians communicating the indication for blood pressure lowering treatment to their patients should emphasise its importance on reducing cardiovascular risk rather than focusing on blood pressure reduction itself. Funding: British Heart Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Oxford Martin School