342 research outputs found

    Growers’ risk perception and trust in control options for huanglongbing citrus-disease in Florida and California

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    Citrus huanglongbing disease is an acute bacterial disease that threatens the sustainability of citrus production across the world. In the USA, the Asian Citrus Psyllid (ACP) is responsible for spreading the disease. Successful suppression of HLB requires action against ACP at large spatial scales, i.e. growers must cooperate. In Florida and California, the regions in which citrus is grown have been split into management areas and growers are encouraged to coordinate spraying of insecticide across these (area-wide control). We surveyed growers from Florida and California to assess the consensus of opinions concerning issues that influence HLB management. Our results show that risk perception and trust in control options are central to the decision by growers on whether to join an area-wide control program. Growers’ perceptions on risk and control efficacy are influenced by information networks and observations about the state of the epidemic and psyllid populations. Researchers and extension agents were reported to have the largest influence on these perceptions. Differences in opinion between California and Florida growers as to the efficacy of treatments were largely a function of experience. A large proportion of growers identified failure of participation as a reason why participation in area-wide control might not occur

    Information graphs for binary predictors

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    Binary predictors are used in a wide range of crop protection decision-making applications. Such predictors provide a simple analytical apparatus for the formulation of evidence related to risk factors, for use in the process of Bayesian updating of probabilities of crop disease. For diagrammatic interpretation of diagnostic probabilities, the receiver operating characteristic is available. Here, we view binary predictors from the perspective of diagnostic information. After a brief introduction to the basic information theoretic concepts of entropy and expected mutual information, we use an example data set to provide diagrammatic interpretations of expected mutual information, relative entropy, information inaccuracy, information updating, and specific information. Our information graphs also illustrate correspondences between diagnostic information and diagnostic probabilities. </jats:p

    The Importance of Consistent Global Forest Aboveground Biomass Product Validation

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    Several upcoming satellite missions have core science requirements to produce data for accurate forest aboveground biomass mapping. Largely because of these mission datasets, the number of available biomass products is expected to greatly increase over the coming decade. Despite the recognized importance of biomass mapping for a wide range of science, policy and management applications, there remains no community accepted standard for satellite-based biomass map validation. The Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) is developing a protocol to fill this need in advance of the next generation of biomass-relevant satellites, and this paper presents a review of biomass validation practices from a CEOS perspective. We outline the wide range of anticipated user requirements for product accuracy assessment and provide recommendations for the validation of biomass products. These recommendations include the collection of new, high-quality in situ data and the use of airborne lidar biomass maps as tools toward transparent multi-resolution validation. Adoption of community-vetted validation standards and practices will facilitate the uptake of the next generation of biomass products

    Bio-chronostratigraphic calibration of the Upper Carnian-Lower Norian magnetostratigraphic scale at Pizzo Mondello (Sicani Mountains, Sicily).

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    Pizzo Mondello section is known since 15 years because of the continuous Late Triassic pelagic record of great significance for the establishment of an integrated chronostratigraphy of the Late Triassic (Gullo et al. 1996; Muttoni et al. 2001, 2004). During the last 4 years, Pizzo Mondello section has been studied in detail to provide a new and high resolution integrated bio-chronostratigraphy for the calibration of the magnetostratigraphy and chemostratigraphy proposed by Muttoni et al. (2001, 2004), and now it is one of the GSSP candidates for the definition of the base of the Norian. The lowest 143 m of the Cherty Limestone, straddling the C/N boundary have been studied in detail. The preliminary data of the ongoing research have been presented in all the meetings of the STS from Albuquerque 2007 and here we summarize the final results. The key correlation to the standard marine Triassic Scale is provided by the ammonoids. They are relatively rare, however the available collections document the Upper Carnian Discotropites plinii and Gonionotites italicus Subzones, from meter 15 to meter 80 from the base of the section. The following 15 meters are poor in ammonoids, while higher up the lower part of the Lower Norian Guembelites jandianus Zone is documented by Dimorphites cf. n. sp.1 of Krystyn, 1980. Conodonts are very abundant and have a great potential as practical tool for global correlations. The abundance of specimens at Pizzo Mondello gave the opportunity to point out clear relationships among the five most widespread Upper Camian/Lower Norian conodont genera (Paragondolella, Carnepigondolella, Metapolygnathus, Epigondolella and Norigondolella) and to identify trends of the generic turnovers (Mazza et al. 2010). The two biomarkers so far proposed as possible marker events for the GSSP were the FAD of E. quadrata (sample FNP88A) and the FAD of M. communisti (sample NA35). However, the FAD of E. quadrata occurs within the Gonionotites italicus Subzone, while the FAD of M. communisti is on its top. Halobiids are extremely common in the Cherty Limestone and they have also a great potential for large scale correlations. Nine species of Halobia have been recognized: Halobia carnica, H. lenticularis, H. simplex, H. superba, H. cf. rugosa, H. radiata, H. austriaca, H. styriaca and H. mediterranea. The best possible marker for the base of the Norian is the first occurrence of Halobia austriaca, that is recorded in the middle of the interval between the record of the Gonionotites italicus Subzone and the Guembelites jandianus Zone. Radiolarians were found in few samples but with high diversity assemblages. In the upper Gonionotites italicus Subzone to the Guembelites jandianus Zone there is an overlap of species previously considered Late Carnian with species usually regarded as Early Norian. About 4 m above the FAD of E. quadrata, in the Gonionotites italicus Subzone, the first assemblage with Capnuchosphaera deweveri Kozur & Mostler, Capnuchosphaera tricornis De Wever, Kahlerosphaera norica Kozur & Mock and Xiphothecaella longa Kozur & Mock, usually referred to Early Norian, occurs. These integrated bio-chronostratigraphic studies lead to identify some possible GSSP marker events especially on conodonts and halobiids, which occur in the upper part of magnetozone PM 4n, within PM 4r and in the lower part of PM 5n. Possibly the most suitable magnetostratigraphic event to recognize the basal Norian is the base of magnetozone PM 5n, as already suggested by Krystyn et al. 2002 and Muttoni et al. 2004

    Dynamic liquefaction of shear zones in intact loess during simulated earthquake loading

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    The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand exposed loess-mantled slopes in the area to very high levels of seismic excitation (locally measured as >2 g). Few loess slopes showed permanent local downslope deformation, and most of these showed only limited accumulated displacement. A series of innovative dynamic back pressured shear-box tests were undertaken on intact and remoulded loess samples collected from one of the recently active slopes replicating field conditions under different simplified horizontal seismic excitations. During each test, the strength reduction and excess pore water pressures generated were measured as the sample failed. Test results suggest that although dynamic liquefaction could have occurred, a key factor was likely to have been that the loess was largely unsaturated at the times of the large earthquake events. The failure of intact loess samples in the tests was complex and variable due to the highly variable geotechnical characteristics of the material. Some loess samples failed rapidly as a result of dynamic liquefaction as seismic excitation generated an increase in pore-water pressure, triggering rapid loss of strength and thus of shear resistance. Following initial failure, pore pressure dissipated with continued seismic excitation and the sample consolidated, resulting in partial shear-strength recovery. Once excess pore-water pressures had dissipated, deformation continued in a critical effective stress state with no further change in volume. Remoulded and weaker samples, however, did not liquefy, and instead immediately reduced in volume with an accompanying slower and more sustained increase in pore pressure as the sample consolidated. Thereafter excess pressures dissipated and deformation continued at a critical state. The complex behaviour explained why, despite exceptionally strong ground shaking, there was only limited displacement and lack of run-out: dynamic liquefaction was unlikely to occur in the freely draining slopes. Dynamic liquefaction however remained a plausible mechanism to explain loess failure in some of the low-angle toe slopes, where a permanent water table was present in the loess

    On the NASA GEDI and ESA CCI biomass maps: aligning for uptake in the UNFCCC global stocktake

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    Earth Observation data are uniquely positioned to estimate forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD) in accordance with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) principles of 'transparency, accuracy, completeness, consistency and comparability'. However, the use of space-based AGBD maps for national-level reporting to the UNFCCC is nearly non-existent as of 2023, the end of the first global stocktake (GST). We conduct an evidence-based comparison of AGBD estimates from the NASA Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation and ESA Climate Change Initiative, describing differences between the products and National Forest Inventories (NFIs), and suggesting how science teams must align efforts to inform the next GST. Between the products, in the tropics, the largest differences in estimated AGBD are primarily in the Congolese lowlands and east/southeast Asia. Where NFI data were acquired (Peru, Mexico, Lao PDR and 30 regions of Spain), both products show strong correlation to NFI-estimated AGBD, with no systematic deviations. The AGBD-richest stratum of these, the Peruvian Amazon, is accurately estimated in both. These results are remarkably promising, and to support the operational use of AGB map products for policy reporting, we describe targeted ways to align products with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. We recommend moving towards consistent statistical terminology, and aligning on a rigorous framework for uncertainty estimation, supported by the provision of open-science codes for large-area assessments that comprehensively report uncertainty. Further, we suggest the provision of objective and open-source guidance to integrate NFIs with multiple AGBD products, aiming to enhance the precision of national estimates. Finally, we describe and encourage the release of user-friendly product documentation, with tools that produce AGBD estimates directly applicable to the IPCC guideline methodologies. With these steps, space agencies can convey a comparable, reliable and consistent message on global biomass estimates to have actionable policy impact
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