Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Model Misspecification Undermines Tests of the Neutral Theory for Life Histories

Understanding the processes behind change in reproductive state along life-history trajectories is a salient research program in evolutionary ecology. Two processes, state dependence and heterogeneity, can drive the dynamics of change among states. Both processes can operate simultaneously, begging the difficult question of how to tease them apart in practice. The Neutral Theory for Life Histories (NTLH) holds that the bulk of variations in life-history trajectories is due to state dependence and is hence neutral: Once previous (breeding) state is taken into account, variations are mostly random. Lifetime reproductive success (LRS), the number of descendants produced over an individual\u27s reproductive life span, has been used to infer support for NTLH in natura. Support stemmed from accurate prediction of the population-level distribution of LRS with parameters estimated from a state dependence model. We show with Monte Carlo simulations that the current reliance of NTLH on LRS prediction in a null hypothesis framework easily leads to selecting a misspecified model, biased estimates and flawed inferences. Support for the NTLH can be spurious because of a systematic positive bias in estimated state dependence when heterogeneity is present in the data but ignored in the analysis. This bias can lead to spurious positive covariance between fitness components when there is in fact an underlying trade-off. Furthermore, neutrality implied by NTLH needs a clarification because of a probable disjunction between its common understanding by evolutionary ecologists and its translation into statistical models of life-history trajectories. Irrespective of what neutrality entails, testing hypotheses about the dynamics of change among states in life histories requires a multimodel framework because state dependence and heterogeneity can easily be mistaken for each other

Evaluating strategies for managing anthropogenic mortality on marine mammals : an R implementation with the package RLA

Funding: ADERA provided support for salaries (MA).Bycatch, the undesirable and non-intentional catch of non-target species in marine fisheries, is one of the main causes of mortality of marine mammals worldwide. When quantitative conservation objectives and management goals are clearly defined, computer-based procedures can be used to explore likely population dynamics under different management scenarios and estimate the levels of anthropogenic removals, including bycatch, that marine mammal populations may withstand. Two control rules for setting removal limits are the Potential Biological Removal (PBR) established under the US Marine Mammal Protection Act and the Removals Limit Algorithm (RLA) inspired from the Catch Limit Algorithm (CLA) developed under the Revised Management Procedure of the International Whaling Commission. The PBR and RLA control rules were tested in a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) framework. A key feature of PBR and RLA is to ensure conservation objectives are met in the face of the multiple uncertainties or biases that plague real-world data on marine mammals. We built a package named RLA in the R software to carry out MSE of control rules to set removal limits in marine mammal conservation. The package functionalities are illustrated by two case studies carried out under the auspices of the Oslo and Paris convention (OSPAR) (the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic) Marine Mammal Expert Group (OMMEG) in the context of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive. The first case study sought to tune the PBR control rule to the conservation objective of restoring, with a probability of 0.8, a cetacean population to 80% of carrying capacity after 100 years. The second case study sought to further develop a RLA to set removals limit on harbor porpoises in the North Sea with the same conservation objective as in the first case study. Estimation of the removals limit under the RLA control rule was carried out within the Bayesian paradigm. Outputs from the functions implemented in the package RLA allows the assessment of user-defined performance metrics, such as time to reach a given fraction of carrying capacity under a given level of removals compared to the time needed given no removals.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A Comprehensive Survey of Pelagic Megafauna: Their Distribution, Densities, and Taxonomic Richness in the Tropical Southwest Indian Ocean

The distribution and density of pelagic megafauna (marine mammals, seabirds, elasmobranches, and sea turtles) are important indicators of marine biodiversity, reflecting the condition of the underlying ecosystems. A dedicated aerial survey was conducted in the tropical Southwest Indian Ocean to map their distribution, the taxonomic diversity, and to estimate their densities to serve as a baseline for the area. This large survey across three ecological sub-regions revealed contrasting spatial distributions: maps of taxonomic richness of marine mammals and seabirds revealed different “hotspots” in the area. Densities were estimated for eight cetacean taxa with small and large Delphininae, or small Globicephalinae dominating, and for seven seabird taxa, with terns and noddies dominating. At the community level, the Southwest Indian Ocean megafauna was structured by the marine environment with strong differences between the Mozambique Channel and the Mascarene Islands, or between shelf and slope/oceanic habitats. Our results illustrate how multi-taxa aerial surveys are relevant and cost-effective monitoring tools for marine megafauna, allowing a community-wide approach

Looking for a needle in a haystack: inference about individual fitness components in a heterogeneous population

Studies of wild vertebrates have provided evidence of substantial differences in lifetime reproduction among individuals and the sequences of life history ‘states’ during life (breeding, nonbreeding, etc.). Such differences may reflect ‘fixed’ differences in fitness components among individuals determined before, or at the onset of reproductive life. Many retrospective life history studies have translated this idea by assuming a ‘latent’ unobserved heterogeneity resulting in a fixed hierarchy among individuals in fitness components. Alternatively, fixed differences among individuals are not necessarily needed to account for observed levels of individual heterogeneity in life histories. Individuals with identical fitness traits may stochastically experience different outcomes for breeding and survival through life that lead to a diversity of ‘state’ sequences with some individuals living longer and being more productive than others, by chance alone. The question is whether individuals differ in their underlying fitness components in ways that cannot be explained by observable ‘states’ such as age, previous breeding success, etc. Here, we compare statistical models that represent these opposing hypotheses, and mixtures of them, using data from kittiwakes. We constructed models that accounted for observed covariates, individual random effects (unobserved heterogeneity), first-order Markovian transitions between observed states, or combinations of these features. We show that individual sequences of states are better accounted for by models incorporating unobserved heterogeneity than by models including first-order Markov processes alone, or a combination of both. If we had not considered individual heterogeneity, models including Markovian transitions would have been the best performing ones. We also show that inference about age-related changes in fitness components is sensitive to incorporation of underlying individual heterogeneity in models. Our approach provides insight into the sources of individual heterogeneity in life histories, and can be applied to other data sets to examine the ubiquity of our results across the tree of life

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species

Large‐scale modelling of deep‐diving cetacean habitats

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Capturado y registrado: potencial de las redes de varamientos para el estudio de las capturas accidentales de cetáceos

XII Congreso de la Sociedad Española de Cetáceos, 4 al 7 de octubre de 2021, onlineN

Foraging Fidelity as a Recipe for a Long Life: Foraging Strategy and Longevity in Male Southern Elephant Seals

Identifying individual factors affecting life-span has long been of interest for biologists and demographers: how do some individuals manage to dodge the forces of mortality when the vast majority does not? Answering this question is not straightforward, partly because of the arduous task of accurately estimating longevity in wild animals, and of the statistical difficulties in correlating time-varying ecological covariables with a single number (time-to-event). Here we investigated the relationship between foraging strategy and life-span in an elusive and large marine predator: the Southern Elephant Seal (Mirounga leonina). Using teeth recovered from dead males on îles Kerguelen, Southern Ocean, we first aged specimens. Then we used stable isotopic measurements of carbon () in dentin to study the effect of foraging location on individual life-span. Using a joint change-point/survival modelling approach which enabled us to describe the ontogenetic trajectory of foraging, we unveiled how a stable foraging strategy developed early in life positively covaried with longevity in male Southern Elephant Seals. Coupled with an appropriate statistical analysis, stable isotopes have the potential to tackle ecological questions of long standing interest but whose answer has been hampered by logistic constraints

Working Group on Marine Mammal Ecology (WGMME)

162 pages.-- This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY 4.0)The Working Group on Marine Mammal Ecology met in 2021 to address new information on marine mammal ecology relevant to management. Two terms of references were standing ToRs; under the first of these, ToR A, new and updated information on seal and cetacean population abundance, population/stock structure, manage-ment frameworks as well as anthropogenic threats to individual health and population status were reviewed along with findings on threats to marine mammals such as bycatch, pollution, marine debris and noise. ToR B is a cooperation with WGBIODIV to review species-specific for-aging distributions (considering horizontal and vertical dimensions depending on data availa-bility) and to estimate consumption by marine mammal species representative in case study ar-eas. ToR C was implemented to review aspects of marine mammal fishery interactions not cov-ered by ICES WGBYC. ToR D is the second standing ToR and concerns updating the WGMME seal database, which was updated with the latest dataN

Working Group on Marine Mammal Ecology (WGMME)

159 pages.-- This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)The Working Group on Marine Mammal Ecology met in 2022 to address five terms of reference. Under the first of these, ToR A, new information on cetacean and seal population abundance, distribution, population/stock structure, was reviewed, including information on vagrant ma-rine mammal species. This was done to ensure the recording of possible range changes in marine mammal species in the future. For cetaceans, an update is given for the different species, providing for a latest estimate for all species studies. In this report, particular attention is given to the updating of information from Canadian and US waters, and together with those countries, latest estimates for cetacean species are provided. For seals, latest monitoring results are given for harbour, grey and Baltic ringed seals. In addition, where possible, local long-term trends are illustrated for those species, based on earlier WGMME efforts to assemble these data into the WGMME seal database. For both spe-cies’ groups, a first account of vagrant species is providedN