Composite endpoints for malaria case-management: not simplifying the picture?

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for infection with Plasmodium spp. offer two main potential advantages related to malaria treatment: 1) ensuring that individuals with malaria are promptly treated with an effective artemisinin-based combination therapy, and 2) ensuring that individuals without malaria do not receive an anti-malarial they do not need (and instead receive a more appropriate treatment). Some studies of the impact of RDTs on malaria case management have combined these two different successes into a binary outcome describing 'correct management'. However combining correct management of positives and negatives into a single summary measure can be misleading. The problems, which are analogous to those encountered in the evaluation of diagnostic tests, can largely be avoided if data for patients with and without malaria are presented and analysed separately. Where a combined metric is necessary, then one of the established approaches to summarise the performance of diagnostic tests could be considered, although these are not without their limitations. Two graphical approaches to help understand case management performance are illustrated

The Performance of a Rapid Diagnostic Test in Detecting Malaria Infection in Pregnant Women and the Impact of Missed Infections.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent screening and treatment in pregnancy (ISTp) is a potential strategy for the control of malaria during pregnancy. However, the frequency and consequences of malaria infections missed by a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for malaria are a concern. METHODS: Primigravidae and secundigravidae who participated in the ISTp arm of a noninferiority trial in 4 West African countries were screened with an HRP2/pLDH RDT on enrollment and, in Ghana, at subsequent antenatal clinic (ANC) visits. Blood samples were examined subsequently by microscopy and by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the RDT to detect peripheral blood infections confirmed by microscopy and/or PCR at enrollment ranged from 91% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88%, 94%) in Burkina Faso to 59% (95% CI, 48%, 70% in The Gambia. In Ghana, RDT sensitivity was 89% (95% CI, 85%, 92%), 83% (95% CI, 76%, 90%) and 77% (95% CI, 67%, 86%) at enrollment, second and third ANC visits respectively but only 49% (95% CI, 31%, 66%) at delivery. Screening at enrollment detected 56% of all infections detected throughout pregnancy. Seventy-five RDT negative PCR or microscopy positive infections were detected in 540 women; these were not associated with maternal anemia, placental malaria, or low birth weight. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity of an RDT to detect malaria in primigravidae and secundigravidae was high at enrollment in 3 of 4 countries and, in Ghana, at subsequent ANC visits. In Ghana, RDT negative malaria infections were not associated with adverse birth outcomes but missed infections were uncommon

Climate change and food security in the developing world: potential of maize and wheat research to expand options for adaptation and mitigation

Maize and wheat are two of the most important food crops worldwide. Together with rice, they provide 30% of the food calories to 4.5 billion people in almost 100 developing countries. Predictions suggest that climate change will reduce maize production globally by 3 to 10% by 2050 and wheat production in developing countries by 29 to 34%. This will coincide with a substantial increase in demand for maize and wheat due to rising populations. Maize and wheat research has a crucial role to play in enhancing adaptation to and mitigation of climate change while also enhancing food security. Crop varieties with increased tolerance to heat and drought stress and resistance to pests and diseases are critical for managing current climatic variability and for adaptation to progressive climate change. Furthermore, sustainable agronomic and resource management practices, such as conservation agriculture and improved nitrogen management can contribute to climate change mitigation. There is also a need for better policies and investments in infrastructure to facilitate technology adoption and adaptation. These include investments in irrigation, roads, storage facilities and improved access to markets. There is also a need for policy innovations for stabilizing prices, diversifying incomes, increasing farmer access to improved seeds and finance, and providing safety nets to enhance farmers' livelihood security. This review paper details the potential impacts of climate change on food security, and the key role of improved technologies and policy and institutional innovations for climate change adaptation and mitigation. The focus is on maize and wheat in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Are Tanzanian patients attending public facilities or private retailers more likely to adhere to artemisinin-based combination therapy?

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) is first-line treatment for malaria in most endemic countries and is increasingly available in the private sector. Most studies on ACT adherence have been conducted in the public sector, with minimal data from private retailers. METHODS: Parallel studies were conducted in Tanzania, in which patients obtaining artemether-lumefantrine (AL) at 40 randomly selected public health facilities and 37 accredited drug dispensing outlets (ADDOs) were visited at home and questioned about doses taken. The effect of sector on adherence, controlling for potential confounders was assessed using logistic regression with a random effect for outlet. RESULTS: Of 572 health facility patients and 450 ADDO patients, 74.5% (95% CI: 69.8, 78.8) and 69.8% (95% CI: 64.6, 74.5), respectively, completed treatment and 46.0% (95% CI: 40.9, 51.2) and 34.8% (95% CI: 30.1, 39.8) took each dose at the correct time ('timely completion'). ADDO patients were wealthier, more educated, older, sought care later in the day, and were less likely to test positive for malaria than health facility patients. Controlling for patient characteristics, the adjusted odds of completed treatment and of timely completion for ADDO patients were 0.65 (95% CI: 0.43, 1.00) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.47, 1.01) times that of health facility patients. Higher socio-economic status was associated with both adherence measures. Higher education was associated with completed treatment (adjusted OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.36); obtaining AL in the evening was associated with timely completion (adjusted OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.19, 0.64). Factors associated with adherence in each sector were examined separately. In both sectors, recalling correct instructions was positively associated with both adherence measures. In health facility patients, but not ADDO patients, taking the first dose of AL at the outlet was associated with timely completion (adjusted OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.46, 3.04). CONCLUSION: When controlling for patient characteristics, there was some evidence that the adjusted odds of adherence for ADDO patients was lower than that for public health facility patients. Better understanding is needed of which patient care aspects are most important for adherence, including the role of effective provision of advice

Roadmaps to Utopia: Tales of the Smart City

Notions of the Smart City are pervasive in urban development discourses. Various frameworks for the development of smart cities, often conceptualized as roadmaps, make a number of implicit claims about how smart city projects proceed but the legitimacy of those claims is unclear. This paper begins to address this gap in knowledge. We explore the development of a smart transport application, MotionMap, in the context of a £16M smart city programme taking place in Milton Keynes, UK. We examine how the idealized smart city narrative was locally inflected, and discuss the differences between the narrative and the processes and outcomes observed in Milton Keynes. The research shows that the vision of data-driven efficiency outlined in the roadmaps is not universally compelling, and that different approaches to the sensing and optimization of urban flows have potential for empowering or disempowering different actors. Roadmaps tend to emphasize the importance of delivering quick practical results. However, the benefits observed in Milton Keynes did not come from quick technical fixes but from a smart city narrative that reinforced existing city branding, mobilizing a growing network of actors towards the development of a smart region. Further research is needed to investigate this and other smart city developments, the significance of different smart city narratives, and how power relationships are reinforced and constructed through them

Evaluation of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in two areas of intense seasonal malaria transmission: Secondary analysis of a household-randomised, placebo-controlled trial in Houndé District, Burkina Faso and Bougouni District, Mali.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is now widely deployed in the Sahel, including several countries that are major contributors to the global burden of malaria. Consequently, it is important to understand whether SMC continues to provide a high level of protection and how SMC might be improved. SMC was evaluated using data from a large, household-randomised trial in Houndé, Burkina Faso and Bougouni, Mali. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The parent trial evaluated monthly SMC plus either azithromycin (AZ) or placebo, administered as directly observed therapy 4 times per year between August and November (2014-2016). In July 2014, 19,578 children aged 3-59 months were randomised by household to study group. Children who remained within the age range 3-59 months in August each year, plus children born into study households or who moved into the study area, received study drugs in 2015 and 2016. These analyses focus on the approximately 10,000 children (5,000 per country) under observation each year in the SMC plus placebo group. Despite high coverage and high adherence to SMC, the incidence of hospitalisations or deaths due to malaria and uncomplicated clinical malaria remained high in the study areas (overall incidence rates 12.5 [95% confidence interval (CI): 11.2, 14.1] and 871.1 [95% CI: 852.3, 890.6] cases per 1,000 person-years, respectively) and peaked in July each year, before SMC delivery began in August. The incidence rate ratio comparing SMC within the past 28 days with SMC more than 35 days ago-adjusted for age, country, and household clustering-was 0.13 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.20), P < 0.001 for malaria hospitalisations and deaths from malaria and 0.21 (95% CI 0.20, 0.23), P < 0.001 for uncomplicated malaria, indicating protective efficacy of 87.4% (95% CI: 79.6%, 92.2%) and 78.3% (95% CI: 76.8%, 79.6%), respectively. The prevalence of malaria parasitaemia at weekly surveys during the rainy season and at the end of the transmission season was several times higher in children who missed the SMC course preceding the survey contact, and the smallest prevalence ratio observed was 2.98 (95% CI: 1.95, 4.54), P < 0.001. The frequency of molecular markers of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and amodiaquine (AQ) resistance did not increase markedly over the study period either amongst study children or amongst school-age children resident in the study areas. After 3 years of SMC deployment, the day 28 PCR-unadjusted adequate clinical and parasitological response rate of the SP + AQ regimen in children with asymptomatic malaria was 98.3% (95% CI: 88.6%, 99.8%) in Burkina Faso and 96.1% (95% CI: 91.5%, 98.2%) in Mali. Key limitations of this study are the potential overdiagnosis of uncomplicated malaria by rapid diagnostic tests and the potential for residual confounding from factors related to adherence to the monthly SMC schedule. CONCLUSION: Despite strong evidence that SMC is providing a high level of protection, the burden of malaria remains substantial in the 2 study areas. These results emphasise the need for continuing support of SMC programmes. A fifth monthly SMC course is needed to adequately cover the whole transmission season in the study areas and in settings with similar epidemiology. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The AZ-SMC trial in which these data were collected was registered at clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02211729

Tau and Aβ imaging, CSF measures, and cognition in Alzheimer\u27s disease

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is characterized by two molecular pathologies: cerebral β-amyloidosis in the form of β-amyloid (Aβ) plaques and tauopathy in the form of neurofibrillary tangles, neuritic plaques, and neuropil threads. Until recently, only Aβ could be studied in humans using positron emission tomography (PET) imaging owing to a lack of tau PET imaging agents. Clinical pathological studies have linked tau pathology closely to the onset and progression of cognitive symptoms in patients with AD. We report PET imaging of tau and Aβ in a cohort of cognitively normal older adults and those with mild AD. Multivariate analyses identified unique disease-related stereotypical spatial patterns (topographies) for deposition of tau and Aβ. These PET imaging tau and Aβ topographies were spatially distinct but correlated with disease progression. Cerebrospinal fluid measures of tau, often used to stage preclinical AD, correlated with tau deposition in the temporal lobe. Tau deposition in the temporal lobe more closely tracked dementia status and was a better predictor of cognitive performance than Aβ deposition in any region of the brain. These data support models of AD where tau pathology closely tracks changes in brain function that are responsible for the onset of early symptoms in AD

Flagellin Treatment Prevents Increased Susceptibility to Systemic Bacterial Infection after Injury by Inhibiting Anti-Inflammatory IL-10+ IL-12- Neutrophil Polarization

Severe trauma renders patients susceptible to infection. In sepsis, defective bacterial clearance has been linked to specific deviations in the innate immune response. We hypothesized that innate immune modulations observed during sepsis also contribute to increased bacterial susceptibility after severe trauma. A well-established murine model of burn injury, used to replicate infection following trauma, showed that wound inoculation with P. aeruginosa quickly spreads systemically. The systemic IL-10/IL-12 axis was skewed after burn injury with infection as indicated by a significant elevation in serum IL-10 and polarization of neutrophils into an anti-inflammatory (“N2”; IL-10+ IL-12−) phenotype. Infection with an attenuated P. aeruginosa strain (ΔCyaB) was cleared better than the wildtype strain and was associated with an increased pro-inflammatory neutrophil (“N1”; IL-10−IL-12+) response in burn mice. This suggests that neutrophil polarization influences bacterial clearance after burn injury. Administration of a TLR5 agonist, flagellin, after burn injury restored the neutrophil response towards a N1 phenotype resulting in an increased clearance of wildtype P. aeruginosa after wound inoculation. This study details specific alterations in innate cell populations after burn injury that contribute to increased susceptibility to bacterial infection. In addition, for the first time, it identifies neutrophil polarization as a therapeutic target for the reversal of bacterial susceptibility after injury

Global estimates of pregnancies at risk of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection in 2020 and changes in risk patterns since 2000.

BACKGROUND: Women are at risk of severe adverse pregnancy outcomes attributable to Plasmodium spp. infection in malaria-endemic areas. Malaria control efforts since 2000 have aimed to reduce this burden of disease. METHODS: We used data from the Malaria Atlas Project and WorldPop to calculate global pregnancies at-risk of Plasmodium spp. infection. We categorised pregnancies as occurring in areas of stable and unstable P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. We further stratified stable endemicity as hypo-endemic, meso-endemic, hyper-endemic, or holo-endemic, and estimated pregnancies at risk in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2020. FINDINGS: In 2020, globally 120.4M pregnancies were at risk of P. falciparum, two-thirds (81.0M, 67.3%) were in areas of stable transmission; 85 2M pregnancies were at risk of P. vivax, 93.9% (80.0M) were in areas of stable transmission. An estimated 64.6M pregnancies were in areas with both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. The number of pregnancies at risk of each of P. falciparum and P. vivax worldwide decreased between 2000 and 2020, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, where the total number of pregnancies at risk of P. falciparum increased from 37 3M in 2000 to 52 4M in 2020. INTERPRETATION: Historic investments in malaria control have reduced the number of women at risk of malaria in pregnancy in all endemic regions except sub-Saharan Africa. Population growth in Africa has outpaced reductions in malaria prevalence. Interventions that reduce the risk of malaria in pregnancy are needed as much today as ever

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives

The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (1Nd; ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to 1Nd; ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, 1Nd; ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining 1Nd; ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect