Symbionts do not affect the mating incompatibility between the Brazilian-1 and Peruvian morphotypes of the Anastrepha fraterculus cryptic species complex

The South American fruit fly, Anastrepha fraterculus, is clearly undergoing a speciation process. Among others, two of their morphotypes, the Brazilian-1 and Peruvian, have accumulated differences in pre- and post-zygotic mechanisms resulting in a degree of reproductive isolation. Both harbor a different strain of Wolbachia, which is a widespread endosymbiotic bacterium among many invertebrates producing a range of reproductive effects. In this paper, we studied the role of this bacterium as one of the factors involved in such isolation process. Infected and cured laboratory colonies were used to test pre- and post-zygotic effects, with special emphasis in uni- and bi-directional cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI). We showed that Wolbachia is the only known reproductive symbiont present in these morphotypes. Wolbachia reduced the ability for embryonic development in crosses involving cured females and infected males within each morphotype (uni-directional CI). This inhibition showed to be more effective in the Peruvian morphotype. Bi-directional CI was not evidenced, suggesting the presence of compatible Wolbachia strains. We conclude that Wolbachia is not directly involved in the speciation process of these morphotypes. Other mechanisms rather than CI should be explored in order to explain the reduced mating compatibility between the Brazilian-1 and Peruvian morphotypes.Instituto de BiotecnologíaFil: Devescovi, Francisco. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Agrobiotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Genética. Laboratorio de Genética de Insectos de Importancia Económica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Conte, Claudia Alejandra. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Genética. Laboratorio de Genética de Insectos de Importancia Económica; ArgentinaFil: Augustinos, Antonios A. Vienna International Centre. Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture. Insect Pest Control Laboratory; AustriaFil: Cancio Martinez, Elena I. Vienna International Centre. Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture. Insect Pest Control Laboratory; AustriaFil: Segura, Diego Fernando. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Agrobiotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Genética. Laboratorio de Genética de Insectos de Importancia Económica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Caceres, Carlos. Vienna International Centre. Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture. Insect Pest Control Laboratory; AustriaFil: Lanzavecchia, Silvia Beatriz. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Genética "Ewald A. Favret"; ArgentinaFil: Bourtzis, Kostas. Vienna International Centre. Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture. Insect Pest Control Laboratory; Austri

Insulin regulates neurovascular coupling through astrocytes

Mice with insulin receptor (IR)-deficient astrocytes (GFAP-IR knockout [KO] mice) show blunted responses to insulin and reduced brain glucose uptake, whereas IRdeficient astrocytes show disturbed mitochondrial responses to glucose. While exploring the functional impact of disturbed mitochondrial function in astrocytes, we observed that GFAP-IR KO mice show uncoupling of brain blood flow with glucose uptake. Since IR-deficient astrocytes show higher levels of reactive oxidant species (ROS), this leads to stimulation of hypoxia-inducible factor-1¿ and, consequently, of the vascular endothelial growth factor angiogenic pathway. Indeed, GFAP-IR KO mice show disturbed brain vascularity and blood flow that is normalized by treatment with the antioxidant N-acetylcysteine (NAC). NAC ameliorated high ROS levels, normalized angiogenic signaling and mitochondrial function in IR-deficient astrocytes, and normalized neurovascular coupling in GFAP-IR KO mice. Our results indicate that by modulating glucose uptake and angiogenesis, insulin receptors in astrocytes participate in neurovascular coupling.We are thankful to M.Garcia and R. Cañadas for technical support. This work was funded by Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Neurodegenerativas (CIBERNED) (Instituto de Salud CarlosIII, Spain) to I.T.A., A.G., and T.I.; an Inter-CIBER project (PIE14/00061) to I.T.A.that forms part of the projects PID2019-104376RB-I00 (I.T.A.) and RTI2018-094887-B-I00 (M.N.) funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033; a grant from Junta de Andalucia Consejería de Economía y Conocimiento (P18-RT-2233 to A.G.) cofinanced by Programa Operativo FEDER 2014–2020; a grant from Instituto de Salud Carlos III Spain (cofinanced by FEDER funds from the European Union; PI21/00915 to A.G.); Grant PID2020-115218RB-I00 to T.I. funded by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación/Agencia Española de Investigación (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033); and a grant from Comunidad de Madrid through the European Social Fund (ESF)–financed programme Neurometabolismo-Comunidad de Madrid (NEUROMETAB-CM) (B2017/BMD-3700 to I.T.A.and T.I.). M.N. was also supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Ramón y Cajal RYC-2016-20414). J.P.-U. was contracted by CIBERNED

In silico Analyses of Immune System Protein Interactome Network, Single-Cell RNA Sequencing of Human Tissues, and Artificial Neural Networks Reveal Potential Therapeutic Targets for Drug Repurposing Against COVID-19

Background: There is pressing urgency to identify therapeutic targets and drugs that allow treating COVID-19 patients effectively.Methods: We performed in silico analyses of immune system protein interactome network, single-cell RNA sequencing of human tissues, and artificial neural networks to reveal potential therapeutic targets for drug repurposing against COVID-19.Results: We screened 1,584 high-confidence immune system proteins in ACE2 and TMPRSS2 co-expressing cells, finding 25 potential therapeutic targets significantly overexpressed in nasal goblet secretory cells, lung type II pneumocytes, and ileal absorptive enterocytes of patients with several immunopathologies. Then, we performed fully connected deep neural networks to find the best multitask classification model to predict the activity of 10,672 drugs, obtaining several approved drugs, compounds under investigation, and experimental compounds with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics.Conclusion: After being effectively analyzed in clinical trials, these drugs can be considered for treatment of severe COVID-19 patients. Scripts can be downloaded at

Amplified Genes May Be Overexpressed, Unchanged, or Downregulated in Cervical Cancer Cell Lines

Several copy number-altered regions (CNAs) have been identified in the genome of cervical cancer, notably, amplifications of 3q and 5p. However, the contribution of copy-number alterations to cervical carcinogenesis is unresolved because genome-wide there exists a lack of correlation between copy-number alterations and gene expression. In this study, we investigated whether CNAs in the cell lines CaLo, CaSki, HeLa, and SiHa were associated with changes in gene expression. On average, 19.2% of the cell-line genomes had CNAs. However, only 2.4% comprised minimal recurrent regions (MRRs) common to all the cell lines. Whereas 3q had limited common gains (13%), 5p was entirely duplicated recurrently. Genome-wide, only 15.6% of genes located in CNAs changed gene expression; in contrast, the rate in MRRs was up to 3 times this. Chr 5p was confirmed entirely amplified by FISH; however, maximum 33.5% of the explored genes in 5p were deregulated. In 3q, this rate was 13.4%. Even in 3q26, which had 5 MRRs and 38.7% recurrently gained SNPs, the rate was only 15.1%. Interestingly, up to 19% of deregulated genes in 5p and 73% in 3q26 were downregulated, suggesting additional factors were involved in gene repression. The deregulated genes in 3q and 5p occurred in clusters, suggesting local chromatin factors may also influence gene expression. In regions amplified discontinuously, downregulated genes increased steadily as the number of amplified SNPs increased (p<0.01, Spearman's correlation). Therefore, partial gene amplification may function in silencing gene expression. Additional genes in 1q, 3q and 5p could be involved in cervical carcinogenesis, specifically in apoptosis. These include PARP1 in 1q, TNFSF10 and ECT2 in 3q and CLPTM1L, AHRR, PDCD6, and DAP in 5p. Overall, gene expression and copy-number profiles reveal factors other than gene dosage, like epigenetic or chromatin domains, may influence gene expression within the entirely amplified genome segments

Assessment of plasma chitotriosidase activity, CCL18/PARC concentration and NP-C suspicion index in the diagnosis of Niemann-Pick disease type C: A prospective observational study

Background: Niemann-Pick disease type C (NP-C) is a rare, autosomal recessive neurodegenerative disease caused by mutations in either the NPC1 or NPC2 genes. The diagnosis of NP-C remains challenging due to the non-specific, heterogeneous nature of signs/symptoms. This study assessed the utility of plasma chitotriosidase (ChT) and Chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 18 (CCL18)/pulmonary and activation-regulated chemokine (PARC) in conjunction with the NP-C suspicion index (NP-C SI) for guiding confirmatory laboratory testing in patients with suspected NP-C. Methods: In a prospective observational cohort study, incorporating a retrospective determination of NP-C SI scores, two different diagnostic approaches were applied in two separate groups of unrelated patients from 51 Spanish medical centers (n = 118 in both groups). From Jan 2010 to Apr 2012 (Period 1), patients with =2 clinical signs/symptoms of NP-C were considered ''suspected NP-C'' cases, and NPC1/NPC2 sequencing, plasma chitotriosidase (ChT), CCL18/PARC and sphingomyelinase levels were assessed. Based on findings in Period 1, plasma ChT and CCL18/PARC, and NP-C SI prediction scores were determined in a second group of patients between May 2012 and Apr 2014 (Period 2), and NPC1 and NPC2 were sequenced only in those with elevated ChT and/or elevated CCL18/PARC and/or NP-C SI =70. Filipin staining and 7-ketocholesterol (7-KC) measurements were performed in all patients with NP-C gene mutations, where possible. Results: In total across Periods 1 and 2, 10/236 (4%) patients had a confirmed diagnosis o NP-C based on gene sequencing (5/118 4.2%] in each Period): all of these patients had two causal NPC1 mutations. Single mutant NPC1 alleles were detected in 8/236 (3%) patients, overall. Positive filipin staining results comprised three classical and five variant biochemical phenotypes. No NPC2 mutations were detected. All patients with NPC1 mutations had high ChT activity, high CCL18/PARC concentrations and/or NP-C SI scores =70. Plasma 7-KC was higher than control cut-off values in all patients with two NPC1 mutations, and in the majority of patients with single mutations. Family studies identified three further NP-C patients. Conclusion: This approach may be very useful for laboratories that do not have mass spectrometry facilities and therefore, they cannot use other NP-C biomarkers for diagnosis

Common Genetic Polymorphisms Influence Blood Biomarker Measurements in COPD

Implementing precision medicine for complex diseases such as chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD) will require extensive use of biomarkers and an in-depth understanding of how genetic, epigenetic, and environmental variations contribute to phenotypic diversity and disease progression. A meta-analysis from two large cohorts of current and former smokers with and without COPD [SPIROMICS (N = 750); COPDGene (N = 590)] was used to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with measurement of 88 blood proteins (protein quantitative trait loci; pQTLs). PQTLs consistently replicated between the two cohorts. Features of pQTLs were compared to previously reported expression QTLs (eQTLs). Inference of causal relations of pQTL genotypes, biomarker measurements, and four clinical COPD phenotypes (airflow obstruction, emphysema, exacerbation history, and chronic bronchitis) were explored using conditional independence tests. We identified 527 highly significant (p 10% of measured variation in 13 protein biomarkers, with a single SNP (rs7041; p = 10−392) explaining 71%-75% of the measured variation in vitamin D binding protein (gene = GC). Some of these pQTLs [e.g., pQTLs for VDBP, sRAGE (gene = AGER), surfactant protein D (gene = SFTPD), and TNFRSF10C] have been previously associated with COPD phenotypes. Most pQTLs were local (cis), but distant (trans) pQTL SNPs in the ABO blood group locus were the top pQTL SNPs for five proteins. The inclusion of pQTL SNPs improved the clinical predictive value for the established association of sRAGE and emphysema, and the explanation of variance (R2) for emphysema improved from 0.3 to 0.4 when the pQTL SNP was included in the model along with clinical covariates. Causal modeling provided insight into specific pQTL-disease relationships for airflow obstruction and emphysema. In conclusion, given the frequency of highly significant local pQTLs, the large amount of variance potentially explained by pQTL, and the differences observed between pQTLs and eQTLs SNPs, we recommend that protein biomarker-disease association studies take into account the potential effect of common local SNPs and that pQTLs be integrated along with eQTLs to uncover disease mechanisms. Large-scale blood biomarker studies would also benefit from close attention to the ABO blood group

Severe Asthma Standard-of-Care Background Medication Reduction With Benralizumab: ANDHI in Practice Substudy

Background: The phase IIIb, randomized, parallel-group, placebo-controlled ANDHI double-blind (DB) study extended understanding of the efficacy of benralizumab for patients with severe eosinophilic asthma. Patients from ANDHI DB could join the 56-week ANDHI in Practice (IP) single-arm, open-label extension substudy. Objective: Assess potential for standard-of-care background medication reductions while maintaining asthma control with benralizumab. Methods: Following ANDHI DB completion, eligible adults were enrolled in ANDHI IP. After an 8-week run-in with benralizumab, there were 5 visits to potentially reduce background asthma medications for patients achieving and maintaining protocol-defined asthma control with benralizumab. Main outcome measures for non-oral corticosteroid (OCS)-dependent patients were the proportions with at least 1 background medication reduction (ie, lower inhaled corticosteroid dose, background medication discontinuation) and the number of adapted Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) step reductions at end of treatment (EOT). Main outcomes for OCS-dependent patients were reductions in daily OCS dosage and proportion achieving OCS dosage of 5 mg or lower at EOT. Results: For non-OCS-dependent patients, 53.3% (n = 208 of 390) achieved at least 1 background medication reduction, increasing to 72.6% (n = 130 of 179) for patients who maintained protocol-defined asthma control at EOT. A total of 41.9% (n = 163 of 389) achieved at least 1 adapted GINA step reduction, increasing to 61.8% (n = 110 of 178) for patients with protocol-defined EOT asthma control. At ANDHI IP baseline, OCS dosages were 5 mg or lower for 40.4% (n = 40 of 99) of OCS-dependent patients. Of OCS-dependent patients, 50.5% (n = 50 of 99) eliminated OCS and 74.7% (n = 74 of 99) achieved dosages of 5 mg or lower at EOT. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate benralizumab's ability to improve asthma control, thereby allowing background medication reduction

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions