False Hopes, Missed Opportunities: How Economic Models Affect the IPCC Proposals in Special Report 15 “Global Warming of 1.5 °C” (2018). An Analysis From the Scientific Advisory Board of BUND

The 2018 IPCC Special Report SR15 developed four scenarios how temperature increases could either be limited to 1.5°, or, in the case of overshoot, could be brought back to that level by 2100. However, the Carbon Dioxide Removal options discussed to achieve “negative emissions” will affect not only the climate system, but also biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides. Unfortunately, the Integrated Assessment Models, and in particular the economic models incorporated in them were capable of integrating only a selective fraction of these effects, and ignore potential tipping points triggering irreversible processes, policies beyond economic instruments and consumption changes to happen over the next 80 years. Our analysis is based on an interdisciplinary expert elicitation, analysing the options suggested by the IPCC one by one. We find that most of them are associated with biodiversity loss, hazardous chemicals dispersion, enhanced energy consumption and/or other severe other damages. We suggest which measures can be applied sustainably, which should be dropped, and which additional ones have been omitted by the report

Generation Times in Wild Chimpanzees and Gorillas Suggest Earlier Divergence Times in Great Ape and Human Evolution

Fossils and molecular data are two independent sources of information that should in principle provide consistent inferences of when evolutionary lineages diverged. Here we use an alternative approach to genetic inference of species split times in recent human and ape evolution that is independent of the fossil record. We first use genetic parentage information on a large number of wild chimpanzees and mountain gorillas to directly infer their average generation times. We then compare these generation time estimates with those of humans and apply recent estimates of the human mutation rate per generation to derive estimates of split times of great apes and humans that are independent of fossil calibration. We date the human–chimpanzee split to at least 7–8 million years and the population split between Neanderthals and modern humans to 400,000–800,000 y ago. This suggests that molecular divergence dates may not be in conflict with the attribution of 6- to 7-million-y-old fossils to the human lineage and 400,000-y-old fossils to the Neanderthal lineage.Human Evolutionary Biolog

The long lives of primates and the ‘invariant rate of ageing’ hypothesis

This work was supported by NIA P01AG031719 to J.W.V. and S.C.A., with additional support provided by the Max Planck Institute of Demographic Research and the Duke University Population Research Institute.Is it possible to slow the rate of ageing, or do biological constraints limit its plasticity? We test the ‘invariant rate of ageing’ hypothesis, which posits that the rate of ageing is relatively fixed within species, with a collection of 39 human and nonhuman primate datasets across seven genera. We first recapitulate, in nonhuman primates, the highly regular relationship between life expectancy and lifespan equality seen in humans. We next demonstrate that variation in the rate of ageing within genera is orders of magnitude smaller than variation in pre-adult and age-independent mortality. Finally, we demonstrate that changes in the rate of ageing, but not other mortality parameters, produce striking, species-atypical changes in mortality patterns. Our results support the invariant rate of ageing hypothesis, implying biological constraints on how much the human rate of ageing can be slowed.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

16p11.2 600 kb Duplications confer risk for typical and atypical Rolandic epilepsy

Rolandic epilepsy (RE) is the most common idiopathic focal childhood epilepsy. Its molecular basis is largely unknown and a complex genetic etiology is assumed in the majority of affected individuals. The present study tested whether six large recurrent copy number variants at 1q21, 15q11.2, 15q13.3, 16p11.2, 16p13.11 and 22q11.2 previously associated with neurodevelopmental disorders also increase risk of RE. Our association analyses revealed a significant excess of the 600 kb genomic duplication at the 16p11.2 locus (chr16: 29.5-30.1 Mb) in 393 unrelated patients with typical (n = 339) and atypical (ARE; n = 54) RE compared with the prevalence in 65 046 European population controls (5/393 cases versus 32/65 046 controls; Fisher's exact test P = 2.83 × 10−6, odds ratio = 26.2, 95% confidence interval: 7.9-68.2). In contrast, the 16p11.2 duplication was not detected in 1738 European epilepsy patients with either temporal lobe epilepsy (n = 330) and genetic generalized epilepsies (n = 1408), suggesting a selective enrichment of the 16p11.2 duplication in idiopathic focal childhood epilepsies (Fisher's exact test P = 2.1 × 10−4). In a subsequent screen among children carrying the 16p11.2 600 kb rearrangement we identified three patients with RE-spectrum epilepsies in 117 duplication carriers (2.6%) but none in 202 carriers of the reciprocal deletion. Our results suggest that the 16p11.2 duplication represents a significant genetic risk factor for typical and atypical R

Population dynamics and genetic connectivity in recent chimpanzee history

The European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement no. 864203) (to T.M.-B.). BFU2017-86471-P (MINECO/FEDER, UE) (to T.M.-B.). “Unidad de Excelencia María de Maeztu”, funded by the AEI (CEX2018-000792-M) (to T.M.-B.). Howard Hughes International Early Career (to T.M.-B.). NIH 1R01HG010898-01A1 (to T.M.-B.). Secretaria d’Universitats i Recerca and CERCA Program del Departament d’Economia i Coneixement de la Generalitat de Catalunya (GRC 2017 SGR 880) (to T.M.-B.). UCL’s Wellcome Trust ISSF3 award 204841/Z/16/Z (to A.M.A. and J.M.S.). Generalitat de Catalunya (2017 SGR-1040) (to M. Llorente). Wellcome Trust Investigator Award 202802/Z/16/Z (to D.A.H.). The Pan African Program: The Cultured Chimpanzee (PanAf) is generously funded by the Max Planck Society, the Max Planck Society Innovation Fund, and the Heinz L. Krekeler Foundation.Knowledge on the population history of endangered species is critical for conservation, but whole-genome data on chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) is geographically sparse. Here, we produced the first non-invasive geolocalized catalog of genomic diversity by capturing chromosome 21 from 828 non-invasive samples collected at 48 sampling sites across Africa. The four recognized subspecies show clear genetic differentiation correlating with known barriers, while previously undescribed genetic exchange suggests that these have been permeable on a local scale. We obtained a detailed reconstruction of population stratification and fine-scale patterns of isolation, migration, and connectivity, including a comprehensive picture of admixture with bonobos (Pan paniscus). Unlike humans, chimpanzees did not experience extended episodes of long-distance migrations, which might have limited cultural transmission. Finally, based on local rare variation, we implement a fine-grained geolocalization approach demonstrating improved precision in determining the origin of confiscated chimpanzees.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Annual cycles are the most common reproductive strategy in African tropical tree communities

We present the first cross continental comparison of the flowering and fruiting phenology of tropical forests across Africa. Flowering events of 5,446 trees from 196 species across 12 sites, and fruiting events of 4,595 trees from 191 species, across 11 sites were monitored over periods of 6 to 29 years, and analysed to describe phenology at the continental level. To study phenology we used Fourier analysis to identify the dominant cycles of flowering and fruiting for each individual tree and we identified the time of year African trees bloom and bear fruit and their relationship to local seasonality. Reproductive strategies were diverse and no single regular cycle was found in >50% of individuals across all 12 sites. Additionally, we found annual flowering and fruiting cycles to be the most common. Sub-annual cycles were the next most common for flowering whereas supra-annual patterns were the next most common for fruiting. We also identify variation in different subsets of species, with species exhibiting mainly annual cycles most common in West and West-Central African tropical forests, while more species at sites in East-Central and Eastern African forests showed cycles ranging from sub-annual to supra-annual. Despite many trees showing strong seasonality, at most sites some flowering and fruiting occurred all year round. Environmental factors with annual cycles are likely to be important drivers of seasonal periodicity in trees across Africa, but proximate triggers are unlikely to be constant across the continen

Environmental variability supports chimpanzee behavioural diversity.

Funder: Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (Max Planck Society); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004189Funder: Heinz L. Krekeler FoundationLarge brains and behavioural innovation are positively correlated, species-specific traits, associated with the behavioural flexibility animals need for adapting to seasonal and unpredictable habitats. Similar ecological challenges would have been important drivers throughout human evolution. However, studies examining the influence of environmental variability on within-species behavioural diversity are lacking despite the critical assumption that population diversification precedes genetic divergence and speciation. Here, using a dataset of 144 wild chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) communities, we show that chimpanzees exhibit greater behavioural diversity in environments with more variability - in both recent and historical timescales. Notably, distance from Pleistocene forest refugia is associated with the presence of a larger number of behavioural traits, including both tool and non-tool use behaviours. Since more than half of the behaviours investigated are also likely to be cultural, we suggest that environmental variability was a critical evolutionary force promoting the behavioural, as well as cultural diversification of great apes

Author Correction: Environmental variability supports chimpanzee behavioural diversity

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21010-z

Recent genetic connectivity and clinal variation in chimpanzees.

Funder: Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (Max Planck Society); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004189Funder: Max Planck Society Innovation Fund Heinz L. Krekeler FoundationMuch like humans, chimpanzees occupy diverse habitats and exhibit extensive behavioural variability. However, chimpanzees are recognized as a discontinuous species, with four subspecies separated by historical geographic barriers. Nevertheless, their range-wide degree of genetic connectivity remains poorly resolved, mainly due to sampling limitations. By analyzing a geographically comprehensive sample set amplified at microsatellite markers that inform recent population history, we found that isolation by distance explains most of the range-wide genetic structure of chimpanzees. Furthermore, we did not identify spatial discontinuities corresponding with the recognized subspecies, suggesting that some of the subspecies-delineating geographic barriers were recently permeable to gene flow. Substantial range-wide genetic connectivity is consistent with the hypothesis that behavioural flexibility is a salient driver of chimpanzee responses to changing environmental conditions. Finally, our observation of strong local differentiation associated with recent anthropogenic pressures portends future loss of critical genetic diversity if habitat fragmentation and population isolation continue unabated