Mature Andean forests as globally important carbon sinks and future carbon refuges

It is largely unknown how South America’s Andean forests affect the global carbon cycle, and thus regulate climate change. Here, we measure aboveground carbon dynamics over the past two decades in 119 monitoring plots spanning a range of >3000 m elevation across the subtropical and tropical Andes. Our results show that Andean forests act as strong sinks for aboveground carbon (0.67 ± 0.08 Mg C ha−1 y−1) and have a high potential to serve as future carbon refuges. Aboveground carbon dynamics of Andean forests are driven by abiotic and biotic factors, such as climate and size-dependent mortality of trees. The increasing aboveground carbon stocks offset the estimated C emissions due to deforestation between 2003 and 2014, resulting in a net total uptake of 0.027 Pg C y−1. Reducing deforestation will increase Andean aboveground carbon stocks, facilitate upward species migrations, and allow for recovery of biomass losses due to climate change.Fil: Duque, Alvaro. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Peña, Miguel A.. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Cuesta, Francisco. Universidad de Las Américas; EcuadorFil: González Caro, Sebastián. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Kennedy, Peter. University of Minnesota; Estados UnidosFil: Phillips, Oliver L.. University of Leeds; Reino UnidoFil: Calderón Loor, Marco. Universidad de Las Américas; EcuadorFil: Blundo, Cecilia Mabel. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Carilla, Julieta. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Cayola, Leslie. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Farfán Ríos, William. Washington University in St. Louis; Estados UnidosFil: Fuentes, Alfredo. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Grau, Hector Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Homeier, Jürgen. Universität Göttingen; AlemaniaFil: Loza-Rivera, María I.. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Malhi, Yadvinder. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Malizia, Agustina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Malizia, Lucio Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy; ArgentinaFil: Martínez Villa, Johanna A.. Université du Québec a Montreal; CanadáFil: Myers, Jonathan A.. Washington University in St. Louis; Estados UnidosFil: Osinaga Acosta, Oriana. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Peralvo, Manuel. No especifíca;Fil: Pinto, Esteban. No especifíca;Fil: Saatchi, Sassan. Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Silman, Miles. Center For Energy, Environment And Sustainability; Estados UnidosFil: Tello, J. Sebastián. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Terán Valdez, Andrea. No especifíca;Fil: Feeley, Kenneth J.. University of Miami; Estados Unido

Mature Andean forests as globally important carbon sinks and future carbon refuges

It is largely unknown how South America’s Andean forests affect the global carbon cycle, and thus regulate climate change. Here, we measure aboveground carbon dynamics over the past two decades in 119 monitoring plots spanning a range of >3000 m elevation across the subtropical and tropical Andes. Our results show that Andean forests act as strong sinks for aboveground carbon (0.67 ± 0.08 Mg C ha−1 y−1) and have a high potential to serve as future carbon refuges. Aboveground carbon dynamics of Andean forests are driven by abiotic and biotic factors, such as climate and size-dependent mortality of trees. The increasing aboveground carbon stocks offset the estimated C emissions due to deforestation between 2003 and 2014, resulting in a net total uptake of 0.027 Pg C y−1. Reducing deforestation will increase Andean aboveground carbon stocks, facilitate upward species migrations, and allow for recovery of biomass losses due to climate change.Fil: Duque, Alvaro. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Peña, Miguel A.. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Cuesta, Francisco. Universidad de Las Américas; EcuadorFil: González Caro, Sebastián. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Kennedy, Peter. University of Minnesota; Estados UnidosFil: Phillips, Oliver L.. University of Leeds; Reino UnidoFil: Calderón Loor, Marco. Universidad de Las Américas; EcuadorFil: Blundo, Cecilia Mabel. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Carilla, Julieta. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Cayola, Leslie. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Farfán Ríos, William. Washington University in St. Louis; Estados UnidosFil: Fuentes, Alfredo. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Grau, Hector Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Homeier, Jürgen. Universität Göttingen; AlemaniaFil: Loza-Rivera, María I.. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Malhi, Yadvinder. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Malizia, Agustina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Malizia, Lucio Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy; ArgentinaFil: Martínez Villa, Johanna A.. Université du Québec a Montreal; CanadáFil: Myers, Jonathan A.. Washington University in St. Louis; Estados UnidosFil: Osinaga Acosta, Oriana. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Peralvo, Manuel. No especifíca;Fil: Pinto, Esteban. No especifíca;Fil: Saatchi, Sassan. Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Silman, Miles. Center For Energy, Environment And Sustainability; Estados UnidosFil: Tello, J. Sebastián. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Terán Valdez, Andrea. No especifíca;Fil: Feeley, Kenneth J.. University of Miami; Estados Unido

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Biodiversity recovery of Neotropical secondary forests

Old-growth tropical forests harbor an immense diversity of tree species but are rapidly being cleared, while secondary forests that regrow on abandoned agricultural lands increase in extent. We assess how tree species richness and composition recover during secondary succession across gradients in environmental conditions and anthropogenic disturbance in an unprecedented multisite analysis for the Neotropics. Secondary forests recover remarkably fast in species richness but slowly in species composition. Secondary forests take a median time of five decades to recover the species richness of old-growth forest (80% recovery after 20 years) based on rarefaction analysis. Full recovery of species composition takes centuries (only 34% recovery after 20 years). A dual strategy that maintains both old-growth forests and species-rich secondary forests is therefore crucial for biodiversity conservation in human-modified tropical landscapes. Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved

Clinical prediction models for mortality in patients with covid-19:external validation and individual participant data meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To externally validate various prognostic models and scoring rules for predicting short term mortality in patients admitted to hospital for covid-19. DESIGN: Two stage individual participant data meta-analysis. SETTING: Secondary and tertiary care. PARTICIPANTS: 46 914 patients across 18 countries, admitted to a hospital with polymerase chain reaction confirmed covid-19 from November 2019 to April 2021. DATA SOURCES: Multiple (clustered) cohorts in Brazil, Belgium, China, Czech Republic, Egypt, France, Iran, Israel, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States previously identified by a living systematic review of covid-19 prediction models published in The BMJ, and through PROSPERO, reference checking, and expert knowledge. MODEL SELECTION AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Prognostic models identified by the living systematic review and through contacting experts. A priori models were excluded that had a high risk of bias in the participant domain of PROBAST (prediction model study risk of bias assessment tool) or for which the applicability was deemed poor. METHODS: Eight prognostic models with diverse predictors were identified and validated. A two stage individual participant data meta-analysis was performed of the estimated model concordance (C) statistic, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and observed to expected ratio (O:E) across the included clusters. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 30 day mortality or in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Datasets included 27 clusters from 18 different countries and contained data on 46 914patients. The pooled estimates ranged from 0.67 to 0.80 (C statistic), 0.22 to 1.22 (calibration slope), and 0.18 to 2.59 (O:E ratio) and were prone to substantial between study heterogeneity. The 4C Mortality Score by Knight et al (pooled C statistic 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84, 95% prediction interval 0.72 to 0.86) and clinical model by Wang et al (0.77, 0.73 to 0.80, 0.63 to 0.87) had the highest discriminative ability. On average, 29% fewer deaths were observed than predicted by the 4C Mortality Score (pooled O:E 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.45 to 1.11, 95% prediction interval 0.21 to 2.39), 35% fewer than predicted by the Wang clinical model (0.65, 0.52 to 0.82, 0.23 to 1.89), and 4% fewer than predicted by Xie et al’s model (0.96, 0.59 to 1.55, 0.21 to 4.28). CONCLUSION: The prognostic value of the included models varied greatly between the data sources. Although the Knight 4C Mortality Score and Wang clinical model appeared most promising, recalibration (intercept and slope updates) is needed before implementation in routine care

Biodiversity recovery of Neotropical secondary forests

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552Old-growth tropical forests harbor an immense diversity of tree species but are rapidly being cleared, while secondary forests that regrow on abandoned agricultural lands increase in extent. We assess how tree species richness and composition recover during secondary succession across gradients in environmental conditions and anthropogenic disturbance in an unprecedented multisite analysis for the Neotropics. Secondary forests recover remarkably fast in species richness but slowly in species composition. Secondary forests take a median time of five decades to recover the species richness of old-growth forest (80% recovery after 20 years) based on rarefaction analysis. Full recovery of species composition takes centuries (only 34% recovery after 20 years). A dual strategy that maintains both old-growth forests and species-rich secondary forests is therefore crucial for biodiversity conservation in human-modified tropical landscapes

Biodiversidad 2017. Estado y tendencias de la biodiversidad continental de Colombia

En la cuarta versión del Reporte, que corresponde al año 2017, es una obligación preguntarnos cuál ha sido y es el papel de esta publicación y si ha abarcado la diversidad de formas y conceptos que definen el estado y el futuro de la biodiversidad colombiana. Las temáticas que constituyen la columna vertebral de cada uno de los reportes anuales responden a temas de pertinencia, nivel de incidencia y actualidad desde cada uno de los diferentes niveles de organización de la biodiversidad y buscan responder las siguientes preguntas fundamentales: 1) ¿Cómo se encuentra la biodiversidad del país? 2)¿Qué factores, en dónde y en qué medida está siendo afectada? 3)¿Cuáles son las iniciativas que desde la sociedad civil o a nivel de políticas públicas buscan evitar esa pérdida? 4)¿Cuáles son las grandes oportunidades para mejorar su gestión y manejo? Si bien evaluar la incidencia que puede tener el Reporte sobre acciones de gestión no es tarea fácil, se debe reconocer la buena acogida que han tenido los textos, las ilustraciones y la cifras entre los distintos tipos de lectores y el papel fundamental que ha jugado el Reporte en comunicar información de altísima calidad sobre la biodiversidad colombiana en diferentes momentos coyunturales. En ese sentido esta publicación es cada vez más una herramienta de consulta y referencia que está abierta al público tanto en formato impreso como digital, y de la misma manera busca fortalecerse para continuar brindando información relevante para la toma de decisiones en materia ambiental.BogotáSubdirección de Investigacione

Biodiversity recovery of Neotropical secondary forests.

Old-growth tropical forests harbor an immense diversity of tree species but are rapidly being cleared, while secondary forests that regrow on abandoned agricultural lands increase in extent. We assess how tree species richness and composition recover during secondary succession across gradients in environmental conditions and anthropogenic disturbance in an unprecedented multisite analysis for the Neotropics. Secondary forests recover remarkably fast in species richness but slowly in species composition. Secondary forests take a median time of five decades to recover the species richness of old-growth forest (80% recovery after 20 years) based on rarefaction analysis. Full recovery of species composition takes centuries (only 34% recovery after 20 years). A dual strategy that maintains both old-growth forests and species-rich secondary forests is therefore crucial for biodiversity conservation in human-modified tropical landscapes

Biodiversity 2016. Status and Trends of Colombian Continental Biodiversity

This third volume of the annual report on biodiversity in Colombia continues the editorial line that begun in 2014. Using novel analytical and graphic proposals, these reports have the goal of communicating the contents to a broad public, making it available for discussion without sacrificing the quality of information. The challenge of communication continues to be a major part of the institutional project, and the new languages with which we are learning to communicate with society and other institutions are an experiment that we expect to be increasingly gratifying. The report for 2017 is already under construction and it counts on new digital technologies so the power of a colombian vital connection may be entirely expressed. The included content evidences that we are still far away from having a systematic follow-up about most of the topics related to the management of biodiversity and ecosystem services, which is the only way to evaluate the effectiveness of policies and investments made by society. In fact, a limitation that is recognized is that of identifying positive or negative changes that affect different levels of organization of life on this planet; therefore, our global navigation route of the Aichi targets is still to be verified. An additional purpose of this process includes the invitation of all Colombians to contribute in constructing and maintaining basic monitoring indicators for management since it is impossible to identify long-term trends of flora and fauna in the country without the support of institutions, researchers, and citizens. This challenge is immense in a megadiverse country such as Colombia. For this reason, the report will continue to open its pages to experts, and even indigenous peoples or local communities, for them to present their perspectives about environmental change and its effects on biodiversity in a systematic and documented manner. This has the objective of stimulating the commitment of everyone in the management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. The only way of overcoming the risk of extinction is through the active process of social learning in which all sectors assume a part of the complex responsibility in protecting the forms of life of the country, a roughly counted tenth of all creatures on Earth. I thank all the people that contributed in this Report, those who have supported us in the phases of production, and all readers and users, who are the ultimate judges of its utility.Bogotá, D. C

Biodiversidad 2016. Estado y Tendencias de la Biodiversidad Continental de Colombia

Esta tercera entrega del reporte anual de la biodiversidad en Colombia profundiza en la línea editorial iniciada el año 2014 mediante nuevas propuestas analíticas y gráficas, con la intención de garantizar que la información llegue a todos los públicos y pueda ser discutida de manera amena sin sacrificio de calidad. La apuesta comunicativa sigue siendo central en el proyecto institucional y los nuevos lenguajes con los que estamos aprendiendo a conversar con la sociedad y las instituciones son un experimento que esperamos sea cada vez más satisfactorio: ya estamos construyendo la versión 2017 con el apoyo de las nuevas tecnologías digitales de manera que la potencia de la conexión vital colombiana se exprese en toda su capacidad. Por los contenidos es evidente que aún distamos mucho de tener una capacidad de seguimiento sistemático para la mayoría de temas relativos a la gestión de la biodiversidad y los servicios ecosistémicos, la única manera de evaluar si las medidas de política y las inversiones que realiza la sociedad están teniendo los efectos deseados. De hecho, parte de las limitaciones reconocidas por robustamente los cambios positivos o negativos que afectan los diferentes niveles de organización de la vida planetaria, por lo cual las mismas metas de Aichi, nuestra carta de navegación global, están pendientes de verificación. Un propósito adicional de este proceso es la invitación a todos los colombianos para contribuir con la construcción y alimentación de los indicadores básicos de seguimiento a la gestión, ya que es imposible identificar las tendencias de largo plazo en que están inmersas la flora y fauna colombianas sin el apoyo de las instituciones, los investigadores y los ciudadanos: en el país de la megadiversidad, el reto es inmenso. Por este motivo, este reporte irá abriendo sus páginas a expertos, incluso indígenas o de comunidades locales, para que presenten de manera sistemática y documentada sus perspectivas del cambio ambiental y sus efectos en la biodiversidad, con el ánimo de promover el compromiso de todos en su gestión. La única manera de superar el riesgo de extinción es mediante un activo proceso de aprendizajes sociales que haga que todos los sectores asuman una parte de la compleja responsabilidad que significa proteger todas las formas de vida del país, una décima parte mal contada de las planetarias. Agradezco a las decenas de personas que contribuyeron con este reporte, a quienes nos han apoyado en todas las etapas de producción y a sus lectores y usuarios, quienes son en último término los jueces de su utilidad.Bogotá, D. C