A new evaluation of the uncertainty associated with CDIAC estimates of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission

Three uncertainty assessments associated with the global total of carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuel use and cement production are presented. Each assessment has its own strengths and weaknesses and none give a full uncertainty assessment of the emission estimates. This approach grew out of the lack of independent measurements at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Issues of dependent and independent data are considered as well as the temporal and spatial relationships of the data. The result is a multifaceted examination of the uncertainty associated with fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission estimates. The three assessments collectively give a range that spans from 1.0 to 13% (2 σ). Greatly simplifying the assessments give a global fossil fuel carbon dioxide uncertainty value of 8.4% (2 σ). In the largest context presented, the determination of fossil fuel emission uncertainty is important for a better understanding of the global carbon cycle and its implications for the physical, economic and political world

The global carbon budget 1959-2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future

Permanent Campaigning: A Meta-Analysis and Framework for Measurement

Permanent campaigning emerged as a concept in the 1970s in studies of US politics but is now recognized as a universal phenomenon. Despite its long history, there has been no attempt to build a holistic picture of the elements that constitute a permanent campaign. Generally, researchers focus on tactical elements, situating their use within an overall strategy, but there is a lack of a broader methodological framework for holistically measuring adherence to the permanent campaigning. This article presents results of a meta-analysis of relevant research to provide a framework to understand how permanent campaigning is practiced. Our study showed there were three reasonably discrete forms of campaigning activities that had been identified: those in which permanent campaign strategies are related to capacity building and strategy; a second, in which permanent campaigning relates to paid and owned media; and a third in which earned media is the main focus. In mapping these studies, we identify the common features of permanent campaigning, identifying strong and weak indicators and the extent these are employed by the government, parties, or elected representatives and within which political systems: parliamentarism or presidentialism. Our framework can be applied in future comparative research to understand trends in political communication

A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion

This synthesis discusses the emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production. While much is known about these emissions, there is still much that is unknown about the details surrounding these emissions. This synthesis explores our knowledge of these emissions in terms of why there is concern about them; how they are calculated; the major global efforts on inventorying them; their global, regional, and national totals at different spatial and temporal scales; how they are distributed on global grids (i.e., maps); how they are transported in models; and the uncertainties associated with these different aspects of the emissions. The magnitude of emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels has been almost continuously increasing with time since fossil fuels were first used by humans. Despite events in some nations specifically designed to reduce emissions, or which have had emissions reduction as a byproduct of other events, global total emissions continue their general increase with time. Global total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are known to within 10 % uncertainty (95 % confidence interval). Uncertainty on individual national total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions range from a few percent to more than 50 %. This manuscript concludes that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion continue to increase with time and that while much is known about the overall characteristics of these emissions, much is still to be learned about the detailed characteristics of these emissions

Exact spectra, spin susceptibilities and order parameter of the quantum Heisenberg antiferromagnet on the triangular lattice

Exact spectra of periodic samples are computed up to $N=36$. Evidence of an extensive set of low lying levels, lower than the softest magnons, is exhibited. These low lying quantum states are degenerated in the thermodynamic limit; their symmetries and dynamics as well as their finite-size scaling are strong arguments in favor of N\'eel order. It is shown that the N\'eel order parameter agrees with first-order spin-wave calculations. A simple explanation of the low energy dynamics is given as well as the numerical determinations of the energies, order parameter and spin susceptibilities of the studied samples. It is shown how suitable boundary conditions, which do not frustrate N\'eel order, allow the study of samples with $N=3p+1$ spins. A thorough study of these situations is done in parallel with the more conventional case $N=3p$.Comment: 36 pages, REVTeX 3.0, 13 figures available upon request, LPTL preprin

Errors and uncertainties in a gridded carbon dioxide emissions inventory

Emission inventories (EIs) are the fundamental tool to monitor compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reduction commitments. Inventory accounting guidelines provide the best practices to help EI compilers across different countries and regions make comparable, national emission estimates regardless of differences in data availability. However, there are a variety of sources of error and uncertainty that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines can define. Spatially explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes and there are no specific guidelines to achieve spatial emission estimates. The errors and uncertainties associated with the spatial estimates are unique to the approaches employed and are often difficult to assess. This study compares the global, high-resolution (1 km), fossil fuel, carbon dioxide (CO2), gridded EI Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) with the multi-resolution, spatially explicit bottom-up EI geoinformation technologies, spatio-temporal approaches, and full carbon account for improving the accuracy of GHG inventories (GESAPU) over the domain of Poland. By taking full advantage of the data granularity that bottom-up EI offers, this study characterized the potential biases in spatial disaggregation by emission sector (point and non-point emissions) across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy-relevant scales) and identified the root causes. While two EIs are in agreement in total and sectoral emissions (2.2% for the total emissions), the emission spatial patterns showed large differences (10~100% relative differences at 1 km) especially at the urban-rural transitioning areas (90–100%). We however found that the agreement of emissions over urban areas is surprisingly good compared with the estimates previously reported for US cities. This paper also discusses the use of spatially explicit EIs for climate mitigation applications beyond the common use in atmospheric modeling. We conclude with a discussion of current and future challenges of EIs in support of successful implementation of GHG emission monitoring and mitigation activity under the Paris Climate Agreement from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). We highlight the importance of capacity building for EI development and coordinated research efforts of EI, atmospheric observations, and modeling to overcome the challenges

Rapid-acting antidepressants and the regulation of TrkB neurotrophic signalling-Insights from ketamine, nitrous oxide, seizures and anaesthesia

Increased glutamatergic neurotransmission and synaptic plasticity in the prefrontal cortex have been associated with the rapid antidepressant effects of ketamine. Activation of BDNF (brain-derived neurotrophic factor) receptor TrkB is considered a key molecular event for antidepressant-induced functional and structural synaptic plasticity. Several mechanisms have been proposed to underlie ketamine's effects on TrkB, but much remains unclear. Notably, preliminary studies suggest that besides ketamine, nitrous oxide (N2O) can rapidly alleviate depressive symptoms. We have shown nitrous oxide to evoke TrkB signalling preferentially after the acute pharmacological effects have dissipated (ie after receptor disengagement), when slow delta frequency electroencephalogram (EEG) activity is up-regulated. Our findings also demonstrate that various anaesthetics and sedatives activate TrkB signalling, further highlighting the complex mechanisms underlying TrkB activation. We hypothesize that rapid-acting antidepressants share the ability to regulate TrkB signalling during homeostatically evoked slow-wave activity and that this mechanism is important for sustained antidepressant effects. Our observations urge the examination of rapid and sustained antidepressant effects beyond conventional receptor pharmacology by focusing on brain physiology and temporally distributed signalling patterns spanning both wake and sleep. Potential implications of this approach for the improvement of current therapies and discovery of novel antidepressants are discussed.Peer reviewe