Abruptly attenuated carbon sequestration with Weddell Sea dense waters by 2100

Antarctic Bottom Water formation, such as in the Weddell Sea, is an efficient vector for carbon sequestration on time scales of centuries. Possible changes in carbon sequestration under changing environmental conditions are unquantified to date, mainly due to difficulties in simulating the relevant processes on high-latitude continental shelves. Here, we use a model setup including both ice-shelf cavities and oceanic carbon cycling and demonstrate that by 2100, deep-ocean carbon accumulation in the southern Weddell Sea is abruptly attenuated to only 40% of the 1990s rate in a high-emission scenario, while the rate in the 2050s and 2080s is still 2.5-fold and 4-fold higher, respectively, than in the 1990s. Assessing deep-ocean carbon budgets and water mass transformations, we attribute this decline to an increased presence of modified Warm Deep Water on the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, a 16% reduction in sea-ice formation, and a 79% increase in ice-shelf basal melt. Altogether, these changes lower the density and volume of newly formed bottom waters and reduce the associated carbon transport to the abyss

Calcium carbonate saturation states along the West Antarctic Peninsula

The waters along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) have experienced warming and increased freshwater inputs from melting sea ice and glaciers in recent decades. Challenges exist in understanding the consequences of these changes on the inorganic carbon system in this ecologically important and highly productive ecosystem. Distributions of dissolved inorganic carbon (CT), total alkalinity (AT) and nutrients revealed key physical, biological and biogeochemical controls of the calcium carbonate saturation state (Ωaragonite) in different water masses across the WAP shelf during the summer. Biological production in spring and summer dominated changes in surface water Ωaragonite (ΔΩaragonite up to +1.39; ∼90%) relative to underlying Winter Water. Sea-ice and glacial meltwater constituted a minor source of AT that increased surface water Ωaragonite (ΔΩaragonite up to +0.07; ∼13%). Remineralization of organic matter and an influx of carbon-rich brines led to cross-shelf decreases in Ωaragonite in Winter Water and Circumpolar Deep Water. A strong biological carbon pump over the shelf created Ωaragonite oversaturation in surface waters and suppression of Ωaragonite in subsurface waters. Undersaturation of aragonite occurred at < ∼1000 m. Ongoing changes along the WAP will impact the biologically driven and meltwater-driven processes that influence the vulnerability of shelf waters to calcium carbonate undersaturation in the future

Sustained observations in the Weddell Sea spanning more than 20 years show gradual increase of the deep water heat content

Beginning in 1989, Eberhard Fahrbach established and maintained until his premature death an observational programme in the Weddell Sea, which outstandingly contributed to alleviate the grave problem of undersampling of the Southern Ocean. Continuation of his legacy by the Alfred-Wegener-Institut has yielded a time series that now extends into 2013, hence covers almost 24 years. Here we analyse this data set for long-term changes of the heat content in the deep Weddell Sea. We exclusively evaluate the calibrated temperature records obtained with ship-lowered CTD (conductivity-temperature-depth sonde) casts at repeated hydrographic stations and along repeated sections. Using this approach we avoid introducing potential temperature offsets that can result from combination of different measurement technologies and potential biases resultant from differences in geographic positions. Our results show that the deep water masses below 700 m gradually warmed over the past two decades by 0.001 – 0.004 K a-1. Superimposed inter-annual to multi-annual variations appear as largely uncorrelated horizontally across the Weddell Gyre. The long-term (21 – 24 years) trends of increasing temperatures in different depth layers below 700 m at all stations and sections can be approximated by linear regression that explains between 27 and 91 % of the variance, where the coefficients of correlation tend to increase with depth. No significant trends are found in the top 700 m. The heating rate of the water masses below 700 m is estimated to 0.79 ± 0.14 W m-2, which is more than twice as high as determined for the global deep ocean in general. Our results hence corroborate the view that Southern Ocean processes make an above-average contribution to the deep ocean warming, and so add to bring global estimates of the deep ocean heating rate and of the net energy flux into the Earth’s climate system at the top of the atmosphere of 0.5 - 1 W m-2 closer in line with each other. Thus they help to resolve the problem of the ‘missing heat’ or ‘missing energy’, respectively, terms coined to grasp the observation that surface temperatures of planet Earth have stalled rising since about 15 years while radiation-affecting atmospheric CO2 concentrations continued to increase. Our results support the finding that excess energy which results from changes in the Earth’ radiation balance is transferred into heating of the deep ocean, where it does not contribute to an increase of surface temperatures but inevitably enhances thermosteric sea level rise

Winter-summer differences of carbon dioxide and oxygen in the Weddell Sea surface layer

Mid-winter total inorganic carbon (TCO2) and oxygen measurements are presented for the central fully ice-covered Weddell Sea. Lateral variations of these properties in the surface layer of the central Weddell Sea were small, but significant. These variations were caused by vertical transport of Warm Deep Water into the surface layer and air-sea exchange before the ice cover. Oxygen saturation in the surface layer of the central Weddell Sea was near 82%, whereas in the eastern shelf area this was 89%. Surprisingly, pCO2, as calculated under the assumption of (reported) conservativeness of alkalinity, was also found to be below saturation (86-93%). This was not expected since ongoing Warm Deep Water entrainment into the surface layer tends to increase the pCO2. Rapid cooling and subsequent ice formation during the previous autumn, however, might have brought about a sufficiently low undersaturation of CO2, that as to the point of sampling had not yet been replenished through Warm Deep Water entrainment.In the ensuing early summer the measurements were repeated. In the shelf area and the central Weddell Sea, where the ice-cover had almost disappeared, photosynthesis had caused a decrease of pCO2 and an increase of oxygen compared to the previous winter. Inbetween these two regions there was an area with significant ice-cover where essentially winter conditions prevailed.Based on the summer-winter difference a (late-winter) entrainment rate of Warm Deep Water into the surface layer of 4-5 m/month was calculated. A complete surface water balance, including entrainment, biological activity and air-sea exchange, showed that between the winter and summer cruises CO2 and oxygen had both been absorbed from the atmosphere. The TCO2 increase due to entrainment of Warm Deep Water was partly countered by (autumn) cooling, and partly through biological drawdown. Part of the CO2 removed through biological activity sinks down the water column as organic material and is remineralised at depth. It is well-known that bottom water formation constitutes a sink for atmospheric CO2. However, whether the Weddell Sea as a whole is a sink for CO2 depends on the ratio of two counteracting processes, i.e. entrainment, which increases CO2 in the surface and the biological pump, which decreases it. As deep water is not only entrained into the surface, but also conveyed out of the Weddell Sea, the relative importances of these (CO2-enriched) deep water transports are important as well

Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas

Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity. Despite being threatened by anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties remain surrounding the future ocean acidification (OA) of these waters. Here we present 21st-century projections of OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs

Biological and physical controls on N2, O2, and CO2 distributions in contrasting Southern Ocean surface waters

We present measurements of pCO2, O2 concentration, biological oxygen saturation (ΔO2/Ar), and N2 saturation (ΔN2) in Southern Ocean surface waters during austral summer, 2010–2011. Phytoplankton biomass varied strongly across distinct hydrographic zones, with high chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations in regions of frontal mixing and sea ice melt. pCO2 and ΔO2/Ar exhibited large spatial gradients (range 90 to 450 µatm and −10 to 60%, respectively) and covaried strongly with Chl a. However, the ratio of biological O2 accumulation to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) drawdown was significantly lower than expected from photosynthetic stoichiometry, reflecting the differential time scales of O2 and CO2 air-sea equilibration. We measured significant oceanic CO2 uptake, with a mean air-sea flux (~ −10 mmol m−2 d−1) that significantly exceeded regional climatological values. N2 was mostly supersaturated in surface waters (mean ΔN2 of +2.5%), while physical processes resulted in both supersaturation and undersaturation of mixed layer O2 (mean ΔO2phys = 2.1%). Box model calculations were able to reproduce much of the spatial variability of ΔN2 and ΔO2phys along the cruise track, demonstrating significant effects of air-sea exchange processes (e.g., atmospheric pressure changes and bubble injection) and mixed layer entrainment on surface gas disequilibria. Net community production (NCP) derived from entrainment-corrected surface ΔO2/Ar data, ranged from ~ −40 to > 300 mmol O2 m−2 d−1 and showed good coherence with independent NCP estimates based on seasonal mixed layer DIC deficits. Elevated NCP was observed in hydrographic frontal zones and stratified regions of sea ice melt, reflecting physical controls on surface water light fields and nutrient availability

Carbon dynamics of the Weddell Gyre, Southern Ocean

The accumulation of carbon within the Weddell Gyre and its exchanges across the gyre boundaries are investigated with three recent full-depth oceanographic sections enclosing this climatically important region. The combination of carbonmeasurements with ocean circulation transport estimates from a box inverse analysis reveals that deepwater transports associated with Warm Deep Water (WDW) and Weddell Sea Deep Water dominate the gyre’s carbon budget, while a dual-cell vertical overturning circulation leads to both upwelling and the delivery of large quantities of carbon to the deep ocean. Historical sea surface pCO2 observations, interpolated using a neural network technique, confirm the net summertime sink of 0.044 to 0.058 ± 0.010 Pg C / yr derived from the inversion. However, a wintertime outgassing signal similar in size results in a statistically insignificant annual air-to-sea CO2 flux of 0.002± 0.007 Pg C / yr (mean 1998–2011) to 0.012 ± 0.024 Pg C/ yr (mean 2008–2010) to be diagnosed for the Weddell Gyre. A surface layer carbon balance, independently derived fromin situ biogeochemical measurements, reveals that freshwater inputs and biological drawdown decrease surface ocean inorganic carbon levels more than they are increased by WDW entrainment, resulting in an estimated annual carbon sink of 0.033 ± 0.021 Pg C / yr. Although relatively less efficient for carbon uptake than the global oceans, the summertime Weddell Gyre suppresses the winter outgassing signal, while its biological pump and deepwater formation act as key conduits for transporting natural and anthropogenic carbon to the deep ocean where they can reside for long time scales

The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink

Several studies have suggested that the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean—the ocean’s strongest region for the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 —has weakened in recent decades. We demonstrated, on the basis of multidecadal analyses of surface ocean CO2 observations, that this weakening trend stopped around 2002, and by 2012, the Southern Ocean had regained its expected strength based on the growth of atmospheric CO2. All three Southern Ocean sectors have contributed to this reinvigoration of the carbon sink, yet differences in the processes between sectors exist, related to a tendency toward a zonally more asymmetric atmospheric circulation. The large decadal variations in the Southern Ocean carbon sink suggest a rather dynamic ocean carbon cycle that varies more in time than previously recognized