The true cost of food: a preliminary assessment

Ensuring sustainable food systems requires vastly reducing their environmental and health costs while making healthy and sustainable food affordable to all. One of the central problems of current food systems is that many of the costs of harmful foods are externalized, i.e., are not reflected in market prices. At the same time, the benefits of healthful foods are not appreciated. Due to externalities, sustainable and healthy food is often less affordable to consumers and less profitable for businesses than unsustainable and unhealthy food. Externalities and other market failures lead to unintended consequences for present and future generations, destroying nature and perpetuating social injustices such as underpay for workers, food insecurity, illness, premature death and other harms. We urgently need to address the fundamental causes of these problems. This chapter sets out the results of an analysis to determine the current cost of externalities in food systems and the potential impact of a shift in diets to more healthy and sustainable production and consumption patterns. The current externalities were estimated to be almost double (19.8 trillion USD) the current total global food consumption (9 trillion USD). These externalities accrue from 7 trillion USD (range 4–11) in environmental costs, 11 trillion USD (range 3–39) in costs to human life and 1 trillion USD (range 0.2–1.7) in economic costs. This means that food is roughly a third cheaper than it would be if these externalities were included. More studies are needed to quantify the costs and benefits of food systems that would support a global shift to more sustainable and healthy diets. However, the evidence presented in this chapter points to the urgent need for a system reset to account for these ‘hidden costs’ in food systems and calls for bold actions to redefine the incentives for producing and consuming healthier and more sustainable diets. The first step to correct for these ‘hidden costs’ is to redefine the value of food through true-cost accounting (TCA) so as to address externalities and other market failures. TCA reveals the true value of food by making the benefits of affordable and healthy food visible and revealing the costs of damage to the environment and human health 3

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information

Acute Microvascular Impairment Post-Reperfused STEMI Is Reversible and Has Additional Clinical Predictive Value: A CMR OxAMI Study

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate the clinical utility and the predictive relevance of absolute rest myocardial blood flow (MBF) by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in acute myocardial infarction. BACKGROUND: Microvascular obstruction (MVO) remains one of the worst prognostic factors in patients with reperfused ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Clinical trials have focused on cardioprotective strategies to maintain microvascular functionality, but there is a need for a noninvasive test to determine their efficacy. METHODS: A total of 64 STEMI patients post-primary percutaneous coronary intervention underwent 3-T CMR scans acutely and at 6 months (6M). The protocol included cine function, T2-weighted edema imaging, pre-contrast T1 mapping, rest first-pass perfusion, and late gadolinium enhancement imaging. Segmental MBF, corrected for rate pressure product (MBFcor), was quantified in remote, edematous, and infarcted myocardium. RESULTS: Acute MBFcor was significantly reduced in infarcted myocardium compared with remote MBF (MBFinfarct 0.76 ± 0.20 ml/min/g vs. MBFremote 1.02 ± 0.21 ml/min/g, p 45% at 6M increased by 1.38:1 [p 2 or index of myocardial resistance <40, acute MBF was associated with long-term functional recovery and was an independent predictor of infarct size reduction. CONCLUSIONS: Acute MBF by CMR could represent a novel quantitative imaging biomarker of microvascular reversibility, and it could be used to identify patients who may benefit from more intensive or novel therapie

Large scale multifactorial likelihood quantitative analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants: An ENIGMA resource to support clinical variant classification

The multifactorial likelihood analysis method has demonstrated utility for quantitative assessment of variant pathogenicity for multiple cancer syndrome genes. Independent data types currently incorporated in the model for assessing BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants include clinically calibrated prior probability of pathogenicity based on variant location and bioinformatic prediction of variant effect, co-segregation, family cancer history profile, co-occurrence with a pathogenic variant in the same gene, breast tumor pathology, and case-control information. Research and clinical data for multifactorial likelihood analysis were collated for 1,395 BRCA1/2 predominantly intronic and missense variants, enabling classification based on posterior probability of pathogenicity for 734 variants: 447 variants were classified as (likely) benign, and 94 as (likely) pathogenic; and 248 classifications were new or considerably altered relative to ClinVar submissions. Classifications were compared with information not yet included in the likelihood model, and evidence strengths aligned to those recommended for ACMG/AMP classification codes. Altered mRNA splicing or function relative to known nonpathogenic variant controls were moderately to strongly predictive of variant pathogenicity. Variant absence in population datasets provided supporting evidence for variant pathogenicity. These findings have direct relevance for BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant evaluation, and justify the need for gene-specific calibration of evidence types used for variant classification

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Comments This article is a U.S. government work, and is not subject to copyright in the United States. Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information

Large scale multifactorial likelihood quantitative analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants: An ENIGMA resource to support clinical variant classification

Abstract The multifactorial likelihood analysis method has demonstrated utility for quantitative assessment of variant pathogenicity for multiple cancer syndrome genes. Independent data types currently incorporated in the model for assessing BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants include clinically calibrated prior probability of pathogenicity based on variant location and bioinformatic prediction of variant effect, co-segregation, family cancer history profile, co-occurrence with a pathogenic variant in the same gene, breast tumor pathology, and case-control information. Research and clinical data for multifactorial likelihood analysis were collated for 1395 BRCA1/2 predominantly intronic and missense variants, enabling classification based on posterior probability of pathogenicity for 734 variants: 447 variants were classified as (likely) benign, and 94 as (likely) pathogenic; 248 classifications were new or considerably altered relative to ClinVar submissions. Classifications were compared to information not yet included in the likelihood model, and evidence strengths aligned to those recommended for ACMG/AMP classification codes. Altered mRNA splicing or function relative to known non-pathogenic variant controls were moderately to strongly predictive of variant pathogenicity. Variant absence in population datasets provided supporting evidence for variant pathogenicity. These findings have direct relevance for BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant evaluation, and justify the need for gene-specific calibration of evidence types used for variant classification. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Erinnerungen an das Paneuropäische Picknick

Die vorliegende wissenschaftliche Arbeit widmet sich dem Thema des Erhalts von Erinnerung vor dem Hintergrund des Paneuropäischen Picknicks. Hierbei handelt es sich um ein Ereignis, bei welchem es in Jahr 1989 einer Gruppe von hunderten ostdeutschen StaatsbürgerInnen gelang, über einen kurzfristig geöffneten Grenzübergang an der österreich-ungarischen Grenze in den Westen zu fliehen, was heute als einer der ausschlaggebenden Gründe für den Fall des Eisernen Vorhanges beschrieben wird. Der regionale Fokus dieser Arbeit liegt auf St. Margarethen, einem Ort direkt neben jenem Grenzübergang, wo ein großer Teil der Interviews und informellen Gespräche durchgeführt wurden. Weitere Befragungen sowie auch Beobachtungen wurden im Gedenkpark des Paneuropäischen Picknicks direkt an der Grenze geführt. Aus den gewonnen Daten können Aussagen darüber gewonnen werden, wie dieses Ereignis in Erinnerung behalten wird. Dabei werden zwei verschiedene Herangehensweisen in den Mittelpunkt gestellt, die Maßnahmen von offizieller Seite und das individuelle Erinnern. Jene Personen, welche das Picknick selbst miterlebt haben, tragen die Erinnerung noch heute in Erinnerung und sind maßgeblich für die Weitergabe dieses Wissens verantwortlich. Initiativen wie der Gedenkpark können hierbei unterstützend wirken, haben aufgrund ihrer oftmals sehr eingeschränkten Reichweite jedoch nur regionalen Einfluss. Junge Menschen zeigen generell wenig Interesse am Picknick, der Grund dafür könnte allerdings nicht in einem allgemeinen Desinteresse, sondern in einer Unterrepräsentation dieses Ereignisses liegen. Generell ist daher der Wunsch, das Picknick präsenter zu machen und besser in den Alltag einzubinden, in St. Margarethen sehr hoch. Konkrete Pläne hierfür gibt es jedoch lediglich auf ungarischer Seite, nicht jedoch auf österreichischer