China, Great Power Responsibility and Arctic Security

Peer reviewe

Rising minimum daily flows in northern Eurasian rivers: A growing influence of groundwater in the high-latitude hydrologic cycle

[1] A first analysis of new daily discharge data for 111 northern rivers from 1936–1999 and 1958–1989 finds an overall pattern of increasing minimum daily flows (or ‘‘low flows’’) throughout Russia. These increases are generally more abundant than are increases in mean flow and appear to drive much of the overall rise in mean flow observed here and in previous studies. Minimum flow decreases have also occurred but are less abundant. The minimum flow increases are found in summer as well as winter and in nonpermafrost as well as permafrost terrain. No robust spatial contrasts are found between the European Russia, Ob’, Yenisey, and Lena/eastern Siberia sectors. A subset of 12 unusually long discharge records from 1935–2002, concentrated in south central Russia, suggests that recent minimum flow increases since 1985 are largely unprecedented in the instrumental record, at least for this small group of stations. If minimum flows are presumed sensitive to groundwater and unsaturated zone inputs to river discharge, then the data suggest a broad-scale mobilization of such water sources in the late 20th century. We speculate that reduced intensity of seasonal ground freezing, together with precipitation increases, might drive much of the well documented but poorly understood increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean

The Mediterranean Sea heat and mass budgets: estimates, uncertainties and perspectives

This paper presents a review of the state-of-the-art in understanding and quantification of the Mediterranean heat and mass (i.e. salt and water) budgets. The budgets are decomposed into a basin averaged surface component, lateral boundary components (through the Gibraltar and the Dardanelles Straits), a river input component and a content change component. An assessment of the different methods and observational products that have been used to quantify each of these components is presented. The values for the long term average of each component are also updated based on existing literature and a first estimate of heat fluxes associated with the riverine input has been produced. Special emphasis is put on the characterization of associated uncertainties and proposals for advancing current knowledge are presented for each budget component. With the present knowledge of the different components, the Mediterranean budgets can be closed within the range of uncertainty. However, the uncertainty range remains relatively high for several terms, particularly the basin averaged surface heat fluxes. Consequently, the basin averaged heat budget remains more strongly constrained by the Strait of Gibraltar heat transport than by the surface heat flux. It is worth remarking that if a short (∼few years) averaging period is used, then the heat content change must also be considered to constrain the heat budget. Concerning the water and salt fluxes, the highest uncertainties are found in the direct estimates of the Strait of Gibraltar water and salt transport. Therefore, the indirect estimate of those transports using the budget closure leads to smaller uncertainties than the estimates based on direct observations. Finally, estimates of Mediterranean heat and salt content trends are also reviewed. However, these cannot be improved through the indirect estimates due to the large temporal uncertainties associated to the surface fluxes and the fluxes through Gibraltar. The consequences of these results for estimates of the Mediterranean temperature and salinity trends obtained from numerical modelling are also considered