The 'last mile' for climate data supporting local adaptation

UIDB/04647/2020 UIDP/04647/2020Non-technical summary The 'last mile' is a transportation planning term that describes the movement of people and goods from a transportation hub to a final destination; a local place such as a home or a shop. This is the final step of the logistics process that unites the product with its new owner. We present and explain challenges of science-guided adaptation at the local level, and how this is an equivalent 'last mile' challenge for climate adaptation. Technical summary The 'last mile' issue, a term used in transportation planning, describes the movement of people and goods from a transportation hub to a final destination, a local place such as a home or a shop. This is the critical final step of the logistics process that unites the product with its new owner, and the point of the value chain. This analogy aptly describes the last steps between presenting scientific evidence of climate change to decision-makers for use in local adaptation and planning. Climate change data (observational and model simulation data e.g. climate change projections and predictions) remain under-utilised, especially by local institutions and actors for which adaptation is a priority. The assumptions and assertions of the classical data-information-knowledge-wisdom are challenged, and a derivative form of the information hierarchy is proposed. Elements of the classical information hierarchy are offset by four balancing elements of access (to data); usability (of information); governance (of knowledge) and politics (of wisdom). These balancing elements and their relatedness coincide with newer models of innovation relating to the interaction between different stakeholders across the different levels of governance, the inclusion of stakeholder expectations, transparency and accountability. Social media summary Climate data to wise decision-making in the 'last mile': a novel perspective on science-guided local adaptation.publishersversionpublishe

Using a system thinking approach to assess the contribution of nature based solutions to sustainable development goals

Abstract Climate change and the overexploitation of natural resources increase the need to integrate sustainable development policies at both national and international levels to fit the demands of a growing population. In 2015 the United Nations (UN) established the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development with the aim of eradicating extreme poverty, reducing inequality and protecting the planet. The Agenda 2030 highlights the importance of biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems to maintain economic activities and the well-being of local communities. Nature Based Solutions (NBS) support biodiversity conservation and the functioning of ecosystems. NBS are increasingly seen as innovative solutions to manage water-related risks while transforming natural capital into a source of green growth and sustainable development. In this context, NBS could potentially contribute to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by promoting the delivery of bundles of ecosystem services together generating various social, economic and environmental co-benefits. However, to achieve the full potential of NBS, it is necessary to recognize the trade-offs and synergies of the co-benefits associated with their implementation. To this aim, we have adopted a system perspective and a multi-sectoral approach to analyse the potential of NBS to deliver co-benefits while at the same time reducing the negative effects of water-related hazards. Using the case study of Copenhagen, we have analysed the relationships between the co-benefits associated with the scenario of the restoration of the Ladegaardsaa urban river. Our hypothesis is that enhancing the understanding of the social, economic and environmental factors of the system, including mutual influences and trade-offs, could improve the decision-making process and thereby enhance the capability of NBS to contribute to the achievement of the SDGs

Combining social network analysis and agent-based model for enabling nature-based solution implementation: The case of Medina del Campo (Spain).

Abstract Several barriers still hamper the effective implementation of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS). Among the others, this work focuses on collaboration barriers. NBS implementation claims for effective collaboration among different decision-agents. However, ambiguity in problem framings, which is ineradicable in multi-agents' decision environments, could create collaboration barriers. This work aims to demonstrate that collaboration barriers to NBS implementation can be overcome by enhancing the network of interactions among the decision-agents. An innovative method based on the integration between Social Network Analysis and hybrid Agent-Based Model/System Dynamic Model was adopted to this aim. The analysis results were used for designing networking interventions, i.e. efforts using social network characteristics that could enhance interactions mechanisms among decision-agents. The developed method was implemented in the Medina del Campo (Spain) case study. This area is characterised by one of the most critical groundwater bodies of the Duero River Basin. This work aims at supporting the implementation of suitable NBS to stop the degradation of the groundwater status and associated ecosystem services. The activities carried out within the framework of the NAIAD project showed that, by enhancing the interaction mechanisms, ambiguity in problem frames can still yield collective actions for NBS implementation

Structuring Climate Service Co-Creation Using a Business Model Approach

[EN] Climate services are tools or products that aim to support climate-informed decision making for the adaptation to climate change. The market for climate services is dominated by public institutions, despite the efforts made by the European Commission to increase private enterprise in the market. The business model perspective has been proposed as a framework for enabling market growth through the development of appropriate business models for the provision of climate services. However, there is a lack of structured knowledge on how to approach climate service design and development from a business model standpoint. In this contribution, we first analyze the role of stakeholders in the design and development of climate services and identify opportunities for engaging users in the creation process. Afterwards, we explain our approach to climate service design and development using a business model perspective. To illustrate the proposed approach, we describe the co-creation of a climate service to support the adaptation to climate change of the urban water supply system in Valencia, Spain, and discuss the main findings and lessons learned from applying this approach.We acknowledge the European Research Area for Climate Services consortium (ER4CS) and the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion for their financial support to this research under the INNOVA project (Grant Agreement: 690462; PCIN-2017-066). This study has also been partially funded by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00) from the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades (MICIU) of Spain.Rubio-Martín, A.; Máñez-Costa, M.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Celliers, L.; Llario, F.; Macián Cervera, VJ. (2021). Structuring Climate Service Co-Creation Using a Business Model Approach. Earth's Future. 9(10):1-18. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002181S11891

Synthesis and evaluation of fluorimetric and colorimetric chemosensors for anions based on (oligo)thienyl-thiosemicarbazones

A family of heterocyclic thiosemicarbazone dyes (3a-d) containing thienyl groups has been synthesized, characterized and their chromo-fluorogenic response in acetonitrile in the presence of selected anions studied. Acetonitrile solutions of 3a-d show absorption bands in the 338-425 nm range which are modulated by the groups attached to the thiosemicarbazone moiety. The fluoride, chloride, bromide, iodide, dihydrogen phosphate, hydrogen sulfate, nitrate, acetate and anions were used in the recognition studies. Only sensing features were observed for fluoride, cyanide, acetate and dihydrogen phosphate anions. Two different chromogenic responses were found, (i) a small shift of the absorption band due to coordination of the anions with the thiourea protons and (ii) the appearance of a new red shifted band due to deprotonation of the receptor. For the latter process changes in the color solutions from pale-yellow to orange-red were observed. Fluorescence studies showed a different emission behavior according to the number of thienyl rings in the π-conjugated bridges. Stability constants for the two processes (complex formation + deprotonation) for receptors 3a-d in the presence of fluoride and acetate anions were determined from spectrophotometric titrations using the HypSpec program. The interaction of 3d with fluoride was also studied through 1H NMR titrations. Semiempirical calculations to evaluate the hydrogen-donating ability of the receptors were also performed.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) , Acções Integradas Luso-Espanholas/CRUP, Generalitat Valenci

All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal

Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range)

Synthesis and evaluation of thiosemicarbazones functionalized with furyl moieties as new chemosensors for anion recognition

A family of heterocyclic thiosemicarbazone dyes (3a-f and 4) containing furyl groups were synthesized in good yields, characterized and their response in acetonitrile in the presence of selected anions was studied. Acetonitrile solutions of 3a-f and 4 show absorption bands in the 335-396 nm range which are modulated by the electron donor or acceptor strength of the heterocyclic systems appended to the thiosemicarbazone moiety. Fluoride, chloride, bromide, iodide, dihydrogen phosphate, hydrogen sulphate, nitrate, acetate and cyanide anions, were used in recognition studies. From these anions, only sensing features were seen for fluoride, cyanide, acetate and dihydrogen phosphate. Two clearly different chromo-fluorogenic behaviours were observed, (i) a small shift of the absorption band due to the coordination of the anions with the thiourea protons and (ii) the appearance of a new red shifted band due to deprotonation. For the latter effect, a change in the colour solution from pale yellow to purple was observed. Fluorescence studies were also in agreement with the different effects observed in the UV/Vis titrations. In this case, hydrogen bonding interactions were visible through the enhancement of the emission band, whereas deprotonation induced the appearance of a new red-shifted emission. Logarithms of stability constants for the two processes (complex formation + deprotonation) for receptors 3a-f in the presence of fluoride and acetate anions were determined from spectrophotometric titrations using the HypSpec V1.1.18 program. Semi-empirical calculations to evaluate the hydrogen-donating ability of the receptors and a prospective electrochemical characterization of compound 3b in the presence of fluoride were also performed.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), Acções Integradas Luso-espanholas/CRUP, Generalitat Valenciana

Copernicus Ocean State Report, issue 6

The 6th issue of the Copernicus OSR incorporates a large range of topics for the blue, white and green ocean for all European regional seas, and the global ocean over 1993–2020 with a special focus on 2020

Deconstructing the stakeholder concept and its implications

Many regions in the world are becoming predominantly vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate and may need from adaptation strategies to deal with it. In our sense, when dealing with adaptation strategies special attention needs to be drawn towards processes through which the capacity of authorities, experts, interest groups and the general public to manage uncertainty effectively and its reactions towards adversity are increased (Webler et al., 1995). Such processes occur not only within the “well-defined” stakeholder groups but more within behavioural systems. Dealing with uncertainty to climate change, then, is a change of belief that influences behaviour at a systemic level. In this approach we consider decision making as a process embedded in a social environment, shaped by particular cultural perceptions and shared beliefs about the cause and nature of resource management and planning decisions. Socially constructed context for actions to react to climate change are given by behavioural system acting under a collective scheme. Thus, collective schemes outline the accepted definitions of what is usual or unusual, i.e. what is out of place or congruent. So far, collective schemes are outputs and inputs to the socially embedded knowledge that succeed upon group practices and can be the same across different stakeholder groups. Thus, the transitions and the acceptance of new policies are determined rather by behavioural systems than by the so-called stakeholder groups. Under this paradigm, behavioural systems and its processes become an inseparable part of planning uncertainty under climate change and developing adaptation policies for e.g. maritime urban regions. In this paper we present the concept of behavioural system as an indispensable milestone in the process of developing adaptation policies to deal with the uncertainties attached to climate change